Vietnam’s Long Son extends cracker shutdown to June

  • Spanish Market: LPG, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 25/03/24

Vietnam's sole cracker operator Long Son Petrochemical (LSP) has extended the shutdown of its cracker and associated downstream units in Ba Ria-Vung Tau to June, to address technical issues.

LSP shut its cracker and downstream units on 21 February because of equipment issues. Siam Cement (SCG), the parent company of LSP, subsequently issued a force majeure on products the following day.

SCG was initially expecting the cracker to restart in about 2-4 weeks after the shutdown in February. But the firm filed a statement to the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) on 22 March, stating that the technical difficulty is still under investigation and the LSP complex is expected to restart in June.

LSP's cracker is a mixed feed cracker with a nameplate capacity of 950,000 t/yr for ethylene, 400,000 t/yr for propylene and a 100,000 t/yr butadiene extraction unit. Downstream units are polymer-focused, with a 500,000 t/yr high-density polyethylene (HDPE) plant, a 500,000 t/yr linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) unit and a 400,000 t/yr polypropylene (PP) unit.

SCG offered spot HDPE, LLDPE and PP supplies from its new LSP complex to the market earlier this year but has ceased offers since late February, after the force majeure announcement. SCG also stated in its statement filed to the SET that its Rayong Olefins (ROC) cracker in Map Ta Phut, Thailand has resumed operations. The producer is expected to ramp up production at its 920,000 t/yr HDPE unit and 720,000 t/yr PP unit in Thailand following the restart of the ROC cracker, and will resume supply of these grades to the market.

The ROC cracker was restarted late last week and has achieved on-specification olefins products since then, according to sources close to the company. The cracker was shut for maintenance since mid-November 2023.

The ROC cracker has a nameplate capacity of 800,000 t/yr of ethylene and 400,000 t/yr propylene. SCG also owns another cracker at the same site — the Map Ta Phut Olefins cracker with capacity of 1mn t/yr of ethylene and 500,000 t/yr of propylene. Both the crackers are currently operating at near-full run rates.


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12/06/24

Competing US farm bill drafts boost SAF

Competing US farm bill drafts boost SAF

New York, 12 June (Argus) — Republicans and Democrats say they still have work to do to negotiate a final agreement around this year's US farm bill, although proposals from both parties include provisions to boost production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released the latest proposal on Tuesday, which represents the view of the minority Republicans on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. The bill clarifies that SAF is an eligible technology under a federal program that offers loan guarantees for the construction and retrofitting of biorefineries. Similar language appeared in the Republican-backed farm bill draft that passed the House Committee on Agriculture last month and in Senate committee chair Debbie Stabenow's (D-Michigan) Democratic-backed farm bill framework. The Biorefinery, Renewable Chemical, and Biobased Product Manufacturing Assistance Program currently offers support to producers of "advanced biofuels," a category that does not explicitly include alternative jet fuels and specifically limits fuels derived from corn starch. A revised definition of "advanced biofuels" could also allow SAF to benefit from other US Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs, including one that pays companies to expand production of renewable fuels. Corn growers and ethanol producers, which could benefit from Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for low-carbon fuels, are among the groups calling for the farm bill to include such SAF provisions. The White House has set a 2030 goal for US SAF production to reach at least 3bn USG/yr (200,000 b/d), although the types of fuels that can qualify for federal support are still up in the air. Some environmentalists have backed restrictions around crop-based feedstocks while biofuel and airline groups support more flexibility. The similar SAF language in the three proposals is notable given rifts between Democrats and Republicans over other elements of the farm bill, a major five-year agriculture policy package set to expire after September this year. While a handful of Democrats crossed party lines to advance the House proposal out of committee, others have criticized it for cutting food assistance and removing "climate-smart" requirements included in the Inflation Reduction Act for USDA conservation programs. Stabenow said that key differences remain between her proposal and Republican bills but that she was looking forward to working with lawmakers to "finish our work by the end of the year." Full legislative text is not yet available for the Stabenow and Boozman proposals, and it is unclear when the Senate committee will mark up a final bill. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed signals one rate cut this year


12/06/24
12/06/24

US Fed signals one rate cut this year

Houston, 12 June (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve kept its target interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high today while officials signaled they expect to make only one quarter-point rate cut later this year. The Fed board and policymakers, in their latest economic projections, expect the target rate range will end 2024 near a midpoint of 5.1pc, compared with the 4.6pc midpoint projected in March. That implies one quarter-point cut, down from three possible cuts penciled-in previously. "We do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably" towards the Fed goal of 2pc, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said after the meeting. "As the economy evolves, appropriate assessments of the policy path will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals." The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5pc. It was the sixth consecutive meeting in which the Fed held rates steady following 11 increases from March 2022 through July last year in the most aggressive hiking campaign in four decades. The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected. CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures trading, had assigned a 99pc probability to the Fed holding rates steady today. The FedWatch tool had earlier signaled two rate cuts later this year, but following a better-than-expected inflation report this morning, FedWatch is now indicating three possible rate cuts, beginning in September. The Fed's economic projections see core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, ending 2024 at a median forecast of 2.8pc from a prior forecast for 2.6pc. Policymakers see inflation falling to a median 2.3pc next year. The outlook for the unemployment rate for the end of 2024 remained unchanged at 4pc. Policymakers expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth to end the year at 2.1pc, unchanged from prior projections. The latest policy meeting comes as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to an annual 3.3pc in May , down from 3.4pc in April, the Labor Department reported earlier today. Inflation had ticked up to 3.5pc in March from 3.1pc in January, prompting the Fed to turn more cautious about beginning its rate cuts. US job growth has surprised to the upside and continues to top pre-Covid levels. GDP growth slowed to a 1.3pc annual rate in the first quarter, from 3.4pc in the fourth quarter of 2023. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation eases to 3.3pc in May as Fed meets


12/06/24
12/06/24

US inflation eases to 3.3pc in May as Fed meets

Houston, 12 June (Argus) — US consumer inflation eased slightly in May for a second month, a sign Federal Reserve rate hikes are having some success in reining in inflation pressures after a spurt of gains earlier this year. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 3.3pc in May from 3.4pc in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.4pc over the past year, the lowest reading in three years, from 3.6pc through April. The energy index rose by an annual 3.7pc, compared to a 2.6pc rise in April, while the gasoline index rose by 2.2pc versus 1.2pc in April. Energy services rose by an annual 4.7pc. Headline inflation had ticked up from 3.1pc in January amid stronger than expected economic data, prompting the Federal Reserve to delay widely expected rate cuts as it pledged it needed to see more evidence of a "sustained" slowing in inflation. The inflation report, which came in slightly under economists' median forecasts, comes hours ahead of a Federal Reserve policy announcement today expected to reveal projections on whether Fed members still expect to begin cutting the target rate this year and by how much. Fed policymakers today are widely expected to keep their target rate unchanged. The Fed hiked its target rate to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc in July 2023 and has kept it there since as it has battled to bring down inflation that hit a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled a 73pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate in September from near 53pc odds Tuesday. CPI was unchanged from the prior month, the first flat monthly reading in two years, following a 0.3pc monthly gain in April and 0.4pc gains in the prior two months. Core CPI was up by 0.2pc for the month after a monthly gain of 0.3pc in April. The energy index fell 2pc in May on the month after rising 1.1pc the prior month. The food index rose by 0.1pc in May after being unchanged the prior month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dangote sets new ULSD, gasoline output dates


12/06/24
12/06/24

Dangote sets new ULSD, gasoline output dates

London, 12 June (Argus) — Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery will start production of 10ppm sulphur diesel (ULSD) in the week commencing 17 June and gasoline production will follow as early as 10 July, refinery head Aliko Dangote told Nigeria's Channels Television on 11 June. The dates suggest a slight delay from most recent guidance of diesel exports and local gasoline sales this month, as made by the company's vice president for oil and gas Devakumar Edwin in May. Dangote said the offshore Lome diesel market had not been providing good quality diesel, and that west Africa had been used as a dumping ground for poor quality oil products, with 2,000ppm-3,000ppm sulphur content products previously being imported into Nigeria. In the same interview the president of Nigeria's Senate, Godswill Akpabio, praised the Belgian government's decision to ban the export of low quality fuels . Belgium supplied just 9pc of Nigeria's seaborne gasoil and diesel imports this year, down from 22pc last year, according to Vortexa. But Belgium has increased its share of the Nigerian finished-grade gasoline import market, supplying 35pc of its seaborne imports so far this year, up from 29pc in 2023. The Dangote refinery has until now been producing around 680-700ppm gasoil for supply to local and internationals markets. Gasoil loadings of at least 20,000t fob Dangote were last week offered at discounts of $35/t-$30/t against front-month Ice gasoil futures, according to sources. These levels are very low compared with the northwest European market, where 30,000t fob ARA cargoes were assessed at a discount of $1/t against front-month Ice gasoil futures. The heavy discount on gasoil loadings fob Dangote reflect stricter pricing terms, according to a local marketer, including upfront payment in lieu of letters of credit, and the payment for product in dollars and not the local naira currency. The Dangote refinery will start producing gasoline between 10-15 July, Aliko Dangote told Channels Television. The absence of gasoline production since Dangote started crude processing in January has meant its exports of naphtha — a key gasoline blending component — have so far totalled 720,000t, according to Kpler. The refinery hosts three straight-run naphtha tanks with a combined capacity of 90,000m³, three hydrotreated heavy naphtha tanks of a combined 90,000m³, and three hydrotreated light naphtha tanks with total capacity of 30,000m³, according to sources. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nueva presidenta de México: ¿AMLO 2.0?


11/06/24
11/06/24

Nueva presidenta de México: ¿AMLO 2.0?

Mexico City, 11 June (Argus) — La resonante victoria de Claudia Sheinbaum en las elecciones presidenciales mexicanas del 2 de junio llegó después de que prometiera seguir el programa de energía de su mentor, el presidente saliente Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Pero la victoria también le da un mandato lo suficientemente grande como para considerar cambiar el rumbo. La presidenta electa se ha pronunciado a favor de las políticas estatales centristas de López Obrador, conocido como AMLO, que en los últimos seis años han revertido muchos aspectos de la apertura del mercado energético luego de la reforma de 2014. La refinación y las emisiones han aumentado, a pesar de que la producción de crudo y gas natural ha disminuido. El presidente detuvo las subastas de derechos de producción de crudo, y algunas de sus políticas energéticas han generado quejas de Estados Unidos por prácticas anticompetitivas bajo el acuerdo de libre comercio entre Estados Unidos, México y Canadá. Según la secretaría de economía, la inversión extranjera directa en el sector de la energía cayó de $3,890 mil millones en 2018, cuando AMLO asumió el cargo, a $286 millones de inversión el año pasado. Sheinbaum se comprometió en su discurso de victoria a promover "la inversión nacional y extranjera que respalde el bienestar social y el desarrollo regional, garantizando el respeto al medio ambiente", también prometiendo apoyar la "soberanía energética". Pero los mercados son pesimistas sobre una mejora en el clima de inversión. El peso, una de las divisas de los mercados emergentes con mayor rentabilidad este año, cayó después de las elecciones, antes de recuperarse parcialmente dos días después. Existen preocupaciones de que Sheinbaum use la abrumadora mayoría de su partido Morena capturada en la cámara de diputados, y cerca de conseguirlo en la de senadores, para impulsar reformas que AMLO no pudo pasar. Una de ellas podría incluir la reversión de la reforma energética de 2014, lo que haría mucho más difícil volver a abrir el sector a más inversiones externas. En teoría, la reversión podría ocurrir bajo el mandato de AMLO, ya que el último mes de su sexenio y el primer mes del nuevo congreso coincidirán, pero el tiempo sería ajustado y hacerlo podría socavar el mandato de su sucesora. Código verde Pero también existen razones para pensar que la presidenta electa podría optar por el pragmatismo. Como científica climática, Sheinbaum apoyó la expansión de las energías renovables durante su tiempo como jefa de gobierno de la Ciudad de México, mientras que AMLO ha bloqueado mucha inversión del sector privado en este sector. Sheinbaum prometió impulsar el nearshoring, que ya ha ayudado a sostener la economía de México, pero esto requerirá más electricidad limpia, así como más gas natural, en lo que México depende en gran medida de las importaciones desde Estados Unidos. Hacer todo esto requerirá mucho más de lo que el gobierno puede hacer por sí mismo, especialmente porque se ha comprometido a continuar con el apoyo financiero para la deuda de $101,500 millones de la empresa estatal de petróleo Pemex. Además, México se enfrenta a una grave escasez de agua a corto y largo plazo, lo que demandará mayores gastos gubernamentales y podría perjudicar el crecimiento económico. También, la violencia azota el país y el robo de combustible es creciente. Durante su discurso de victoria, Sheinbaum prometió evitar subidas en los precios del combustible, lo que requiere que el gobierno aumente los subsidios en tiempos de precios más altos. La bajada de los precios del petróleo ha aliviado esa presión este año, pero siempre puede volver. La refinería Olmeca de 340,000 b/d de Pemex, el muy retrasado proyecto de energía insignia de AMLO para ayudar a México a reducir las importaciones de combustible, podría comenzar operaciones a finales del año próximo, según previsiones externas, pero también requerirá de más gasto. Un segundo mandato del presidente estadounidense Joe Biden después de las elecciones de noviembre podría presionar a Sheinbaum para impulsar el desarrollo renovable, aunque en caso de que el ganador sea el expresidente Donald Trump, podría buscar cooperación en las energías convencionales. No está claro lo bien que Trump interactuará con Sheinbaum, pero tuvo una relación extrañamente productiva con AMLO. En los siguientes cuatro meses previos a que Sheinbaum asuma el cargo de presidente el 1 de octubre, las cosas quedarán más claras. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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