Fertilizers
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The fertilizer industry has seen dramatic changes in market dynamics, with challenges posed by policy and regulatory changes, political instability, conflicts and new macroeconomic realities. The drive towards energy transition and ambitious zero-carbon goals has also opened up the industry to new entrants and new opportunities.
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Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI
Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI
Houston, 11 December (Argus) — US fertilizer industry group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) expects US president Donald Trump does not intend to reinstate reciprocal tariffs on imported Canadian fertilizer products after previously commenting he could. Earlier this week when asked what action the Trump administration may take to bolster domestic fertilizer output and the US's reliance on imports from countries like Canada, Trump relayed that the US could impose severe tariffs "if we have to" and with those tariffs the US could be making its own fertilizer "very soon." "Based on information that we have at this time, including conversations with USDA officials, these comments do not indicate a change in current policy," TFI said Wednesday. "An open, fair, predictable, and transparent trading environment with key partners like Canada is vital to maintaining a stable, affordable supply of the crop nutrients US growers rely on," TFI noted. Following Trump's comments, several market participants agreed that it seemed unlikely tariffs would be reimposed on Canadian fertilizer imports given their status of being USMCA compliant and that tariffs would do little to improve the near-term fertilizer production outlook. The fertilizer market is "numb" to these kinds of comments, one distributor said. On a nutrient basis the US imported 98pc of its potash in 2023 and about 85pc of those imports came from Canada, according to TFI. The US imported 33pc of its urea consumption on a nutrient basis in 2023; 15pc of imports came from Canada, according to estimates from TFI. For ammonia, the US imported 12pc of its consumption, 50pc of which came from Canada. Also, 35pc of US ammonium sulfate imports came from Canada in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nitrogen market braces for CBAM after documents leak
Nitrogen market braces for CBAM after documents leak
Amsterdam, 11 December (Argus) — Nitrogen fertilizer market participants are grappling with the implications to trade and product flows into the EU after the latest document leak from Brussels shed more light on carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) charges for 2026. ‘Urea is king', declared one major European importer as urea faces the lowest proportional carbon cost in price terms, while offering the importer the highest content of nitrogen (46pc) per tonne ( see table ). Conversely, projected default charges for nitrates and some ammonium sulphate (amsul) origins are considerably more prohibitive. Europe is overwhelmingly reliant on urea imports, and the projected default values show the mechanism has been implemented to protect the bloc's non-urea nitrogen industry, one trader said. Europe has significant capacity of nitrate-based fertilizers — ammonium nitrate (AN), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) — thanks to plants run by international producers Yara and Agrofert, as well as other major local suppliers, but the bloc is heavily dependent on urea imports. The EU's urea imports from non-EU sources were 6.23mn t in 2024, with Egypt, Russia and Algeria accounting for over 87pc of those receipts. The estimated default CBAM cost for imports of duty-free urea from Egypt, the bloc's top supplier, is €43/t ($50/t) — or around 9-10pc of the granular urea fca French Atlantic price on 4 December. The calculation is based on a prompt ETS price of €82.48/t as assessed by Argus on 10 December. Theoretical default costs range up to €58/t for urea from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with Russian and Nigerian hovering around €50/t, and duty-free Algerian at around €45/t. UAN imports from Trinidad and Tobago, the lowest tariffed origin among the major sources, are projected to have a default charge of around €68/t at current default values, which is nearly 20pc of the UAN price in Rouen, while only delivering 30pc nitrogen content. Amsul from China, which has become a more popular source of imports this year, faces a default charge of €74/t, while only delivering 21pc of nitrogen against urea's 46pc. Amsul from Egypt is facing a levy of just €19/t. CBAM default charges for AN and CAN are projected to be considerable at €155-161/t and €115-130/t, respectively, for imports from current top origins, equating to 33-38pc of current major EU inland prices. The latest projected default charges have been calculated following a leaked draft of the approved documents from Brussels, which emerged on Wednesday . There remains a considerable lack of clarity among participants as to how the market will adjust to urea trade into Europe once the CBAM charges come into force from 1 January. By Harry Minihan Theoretical CBAM default charges for nitrogen fertilizers Selected origins Projected CBAM default charge (€/t)** CBAM default charge per tonne of nitrogen (€)*** CBAM charge % of major EU price* Urea 46pc nitrogen Granular urea fca French Atlantic Egypt 43.26 0.94 9.3 Algeria 44.92 0.98 9.6 Nigeria 49.09 1.07 10.5 Russia 49.92 1.09 10.7 Azerbaijan 54.92 1.19 11.7 Turkmenistan 58.25 1.27 12.5 Uzbekistan 58.25 1.27 12.5 Average 51.23 1.11 11.0 UAN 30pc nitrogen UAN 30 fca Rouen Trinidad & Tobago 68.03 2.27 19.2 Egypt 75.53 2.52 21.3 Russia 85.53 2.85 24.1 US 94.69 3.16 26.7 Average 80.94 2.70 22.8 AN 33.5pc nitrogen AN 33.5 cpt France Russia 154.91 4.62 32.8 Georgia 158.24 4.72 33.5 Uzbekistan 160.74 4.80 34.0 Average 157.97 4.72 33.4 CAN 27pc nitrogen CAN 27 cif inland Germany Egypt 115.45 4.28 33.2 Russia 129.61 4.80 37.3 Ukraine 129.61 4.80 37.3 Turkey 130.44 4.83 37.5 Average 126.28 4.68 36.3 Amsul 21pc nitrogen Granular amsul fob NW Europe Egypt 19.51 0.93 8.0 Russia 22.84 1.09 9.3 Serbia 22.84 1.09 9.3 China 74.49 3.55 30.4 Average 34.92 1.66 14.2 *prices assessed on 4 December; **based on ETS prompt price of €82.48/t on 10 December; ***nitrogen content of products can vary depending on plant Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil inflation falls below ceiling in November
Brazil inflation falls below ceiling in November
Sao Paulo, 10 December (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 4.46pc in November, the first time it stands below the central bank's 4.5pc ceiling since September 2024, according to national statistics agency IBGE. Annualized inflation decelerated from 4.68pc in October and 5.17pc in September. On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated to 0.18pc in November from 0.09pc in October. Housing costs accelerated to an annual 6.54pc in November from 4.36pc in October. Power costs accelerated to 11.41pc in November from 3.11pc in October. Brazil maintained power tariffs at R4.46 (¢0.81)/100MWh in November, as below-average rainfall for the period partially hindered hydroelectric generation. Transportation costs decelerated to an annualized 3pc from 3.69pc in October. Motor fuel costs decelerated to 2.55pc in November from 2.72pc a month prior, with gasoline and diesel prices decelerating to 2.22pc and 2.01pc from 2.49pc and 2.11pc, respectively. Ethanol prices increased by 6.2pc in November, accelerating from 5.59pc a month earlier, while compressed natural gas costs further contracted by 4.86pc from a 4.28pc contraction in October. Airplane ticket costs decelerated to an annual 0.13pc in November from 9.75pc in October. Food and beverage costs decelerated to an annual 3.88pc from a 5.5pc increase in October. Soybean oil prices decelerated to 8.89pc in November from 17.41pc a month earlier. Brazil's target interest rate remained at 15pc in November. The central bank will likely keep it steady through year-end to push inflation closer to the government's main goal of 3pc. The bank's weekly Focus report — a forecast bulletin with market expectations for macroeconomic indicators — estimates a 4.4pc overall inflation rate for 2025. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Urea market grapples with EU’s CBAM as revision delayed
Urea market grapples with EU’s CBAM as revision delayed
Amsterdam, 10 December (Argus) — A considerable lack of clarity remains as to how the urea market will trade following the rollout of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) next month, with the market still waiting on confirmation from the EU regarding key aspects of the charge calculation. Market participants are split as to how the market will react to the additional carbon-related costs associated with the CBAM, and under which trade terms — whether fob, cfr, cif or fca — the most liquidity will be found. No clear consensus has emerged as to which part of the supply chain will bear the increased costs. Some expect importers to absorb most of the CBAM charge when the import market is in season, while others think that the levy will weigh on fob prices from origin markets. Some expect the cost to be spread across producers and importers. The CBAM charge depends heavily on individual plants' reported carbon emissions per tonne of urea produced, with lower fees for newer, more-efficient plants that emit less carbon and are less susceptible to unplanned outages. Plants' reported emissions vary widely, and this translates into a similarly wide carbon levy range. The fee could be as low as €15/t ($17/t), or up to as high as €70-80/t and beyond for some origins. Market participants are still waiting for the EU to confirm some key aspects of the CBAM charge calculation, even though it is set to be implemented in three weeks' time. The costs will be partly based on average quarterly prices of emission trading scheme (ETS) contracts, which adds another layer of complexity to risk management for importers. At current ETS prices, imports from Egypt — the top urea supplier to European markets — are expected to face an average carbon levy of around €40/t. But this average comes from a wide range, given that Egypt's multiple urea plants have varying rates of carbon efficiency. Product from central Asia — another key supply region — will face higher charges than Egyptian supplies. Urea production plants in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are older and less-energy efficient than plants in Egypt, according to trading firm Alkagesta's head of fertilizers, Vusal Muradov. Product from some central Asian plants will likely average a considerably higher CBAM cost at current rates, and European buyers will increasingly prioritise lower-emissions supply chains, Muradov said. The latest delay to the mechanism's planned revisions has not helped matters. The European Commission on Tuesday confirmed a delay to legislative proposals to revise the CBAM, which had originally been scheduled for 10 December. Officials have yet to confirm 16 December as the new date for the proposals to be presented. One major European importer speculated, likely out of hope, that the bloc may water down the CBAM charges on urea. The impending rollout of the CBAM prompted a surge in urea prices into Europe at the end of October and early November, with granular urea trading at above $500/t fob Egypt as importers scrambled to clear product through customs for their warehouses before CBAM charges are applied. The spike in north African prices saw importers look to atypical origins, with over 300,000t of urea from Nigeria, Oman, Malaysia, Qatar and China set to arrive in Romania, the UK and Turkey in November-December so far. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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