Singapore, 12 September (Argus) — The IEA has left its demand growth forecasts largely unchanged in its latest Oil Market Report as it noted continued “mixed signals” in the oil market.
The Paris-based energy watchdog has cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2013 by 20,000 b/d, putting demand growth next year at 810,000 b/d, in line with Opec's projections. It raised its demand projections for 2012 and 2013 by 100,000 b/d because of revisions to last year's data, putting demand at 89.8mn b/d this year and 90.6mn b/d in 2013.
The IEA raised its forecast call on Opec crude by 100,000 b/d for both 2012 and 2013 to 30.3mn b/d and 30.2mn b/d respectively. The call on Opec crude is set to rise by 1.3mn b/d in the current quarter compared with the second quarter because of a seasonal upturn in demand during the period, even as non-Opec supply growth slows to 200,000 b/d in the current quarter compared with a year earlier.
A rally in retail oil product prices has caused concern among consuming nations, as greater than expected compliance with sanctions on Iran removes large volumes of oil from the market. But bearish economic indicators in the US, eurozone and increasingly China make the OECD stock cushion look more comfortable — when measured in days of forward demand — than before the latest stockdraws, the IEA said.
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