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Rhine hits record lows, halts shipping south of Mainz
Rhine hits record lows, halts shipping south of Mainz
Hamburg, 13 August (Argus) — Rhine River water levels have again dropped to record lows, and barge operators said most traffic is now halted south of Mainz. Navigation is also increasingly restricted further north, as water levels continue to fall. Freight rates from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to Rhine destinations have hit record highs. The water gauge at Kaub, the Rhine's key bottleneck, was at 11cm on 13 August. The Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration forecasts a drop to 6cm by the weekend, another all-time low. At this level, river transport from ARA to the Upper Rhine and Main River is near-impossible. Only a few specialised barges can pass through Kaub under extremely challenging conditions, shipowners said. Storage sites along the Main, including Frankfurt, Hanau and Aschaffenburg, and depots on the Upper Rhine in Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Kehl and Basel, Switzerland, are effectively cut off from ARA. Shipping south of Kaub, to Basel, is barely feasible because of shallow water at the Maxau gauge south of Karlsruhe. Shipowners said quoted spot freight rates for ARA-Karlsruhe cargoes are largely theoretical, as volumes are too low to ascertain a reliable market price. The Argus rate for ARA-Karlsruhe route is a record €215/t, but urgent cargoes that still move to the Upper Rhine on specialised vessels are commanding even higher lump-sum rates. Most transport is confined to the Lower Rhine. Duisburg, Dortmund and Neuss remain accessible from ARA, shipowners said. Of the Cologne terminals — Köln-Molenkopf, Köln-Niehl, Godorf and Wesseling — only the former can still theoretically be served by conventional barges. The others are already too shallow for regular operations. Water levels are also dropping on the Lower Rhine. On 13 August, the Duisburg gauge was 136cm, another historic low. Barges can reach Duisburg from ARA at only about 15pc of capacity, according to shipowners. If Duisburg falls below 130cm, inland shipping could be halted on parts of the Lower Rhine. Forecasts show little short-term relief. While local thunderstorms are expected, dry soils mean these may not raise river levels significantly. A sustained recovery would need widespread, prolonged rainfall across the basin. By Johannes Guhlke and Marc Hauschild Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hormuz traffic low despite US claims of control
Hormuz traffic low despite US claims of control
New York, 12 August (Argus) — Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, weighing on global oil demand despite US president Donald Trump's recent claims of the US' total control over the narrow waterway. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz stood at 16 vessels total on 11 August, split between 11 inbound and five outbound transits, data from maritime security firm Windward show. There were six total transits — including three transits into the Mideast Gulf and three transits out — that took place on the southern US-supported transit lane, including a Sinokor-controlled very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2mn bl of Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam, Windward data show. "The USA has total control over the strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" Trump posted on social media on 12 August. "Our naval blockade is being called, by everyone, 'A WALL OF STEEL' and there is nothing Iran can do about it." Trump's claim of the US' total control over the strait of Hormuz came the same day that the International Energy Agency (IEA) described an agreement enabling the reopening of the strait of Hormuz as "still elusive" in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). It also lowered its global oil demand forecast "as the continued closure of the strait of Hormuz disrupts international supply chains and curtails product availability". The latest remarks by Trump come as the US and Iran appear to be moving further away from the potential for diplomatic resolution to reopen the strait of Hormuz, based on recent escalations in rhetoric from both countries. Iran continues to heighten its demands for the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, linking it to the end of the US' blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a region-wide ceasefire that includes Lebanon and Gaza. Meanwhile, Trump in an 11 August post on social media floated the idea that Iran "should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza!" Wright or wrong? US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 11 August that thanks to the US and its Gulf allies the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz is up to almost 9mn b/d, a figure much higher than available information. Data from vessel tracking firm Vortexa places the weekly average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz between 31 July and 7 August at 3.34mn b/d, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait as the leading exporters. It is unclear whether the vessels transited on the US-supported southern lane or the northern Iranian-controlled transit lane. Iran had previously exempted its ally Iraq from paying tolls to transit the strait in June. The IEA confirmed in its latest OMR that "following significant gains in May and June, crude and condensate flow through Hormuz (…) collapsed in July." Wright doubled down on his claims on 12 August stating that "many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway". The US Central Command (Centcom) has repeatedly claimed that US-assisted transits through the strait of Hormuz have been averaging around 20 vessels a day, even on days where vessel tracking and satellite information detected only 10 vessels making it through the waterway. Centcom has declined to respond to multiple requests for additional details on the transits from Argus . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico industrial output rebounds in June
Mexico industrial output rebounds in June
Mexico City, 11 August (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production expanded by 0.2pc in June from the previous month, marking gains in two of the second quarter's three months as construction showed signs of a tentative recovery. The June increase in Mexico's industrial activity indicator (IMAI), reported Tuesday by statistics agency Inegi, followed a revised 0.7pc contraction in May and a 2.1pc expansion in April. Industrial activity posted a cumulative net increase of 1.6pc over the second quarter. The June result matched the consensus forecast cited by Mexican bank Banorte. Construction, which accounts for 19pc of the IMAI, expanded by 3pc in June, rebounding from a 3.7pc decline in May after a 7pc increase in April. Within the sector, building construction rose by 4.8pc in June after falling 5.5pc in May. Civil engineering fell by 2.7pc, reversing a 4.5pc May increase. Weakness remained concentrated in manufacturing, which declined by 0.6pc in June after a 0.1pc drop in May and a 1.1pc increase in April. Ten of 21 manufacturing subsectors contracted in June. The heavily weighted transport equipment segment fell 3.2pc in June, its first decline since January and the steepest since July 2025. Machinery and equipment output fell by 1.4pc after a 3.1pc May increase, while electronic equipment expanded by 0.5pc after declining 0.1pc. Mining expanded by 0.6pc in June, led by a 10.5pc increase in related services, with the oil component also positive at 0.2pc. This follows 0.3pc expansion in May and a 0.2pc decline in April. Generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, natural gas and water rose by 0.9pc in June, marking its first monthly expansion of 2026 after contraction of 0.4pc in May. Industrial production returned to positive territory in annual terms, expanding 1.7pc in June from a year prior, with all four sectors posting increases. Mining was the top performer, rising 6.6pc, followed by construction at 5pc. Utilities rose by an annual 0.7pc, with manufacturing edging 0.1pc higher. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EIA raises renewable diesel output view
EIA raises renewable diesel output view
Houston, 11 August (Argus) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today raised its projections for renewable diesel production and net exports while trimming domestic demand expectations. EIA raised its forecast for renewable diesel production in 2026 to 241,000 b/d, the agency said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook , up by 5,000 b/d from July's forecast. The production outlook for next year was unchanged at 294,000 b/d. The outlook for domestic renewable diesel demand this year was trimmed by 9,000 b/d to 208,000 b/d, while the 2027 forecast was reduced by 4,000 b/d to 291,000 b/d. EIA increased its expectation for net renewable diesel exports this year to 30,000 b/d, up by 13,000 b/d from July's projection and equal to the level recorded in 2025. Next year, renewable diesel imports and exports are expected to be balanced, compared with 5,000 b/d in net imports projected last month. US biodiesel domestic demand is expected to average 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 115,000 b/d in 2027. The 2026 forecast was cut by 1,000 b/d from EIA's July outlook, while the 2027 outlook was unchanged. Biodiesel output is expected to reach 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 109,000 b/d in 2027, both unchanged from the previous report. Biodiesel imports and exports in 2026 are also expected to be balanced, a decrease of 1,000 b/d in net imports from last month's projection. The agency expects 6,000 b/d of net biodiesel imports in 2027, unchanged from the previous report. EIA's forecast for US production and consumption of "other biofuels" — including sustainable aviation fuel — were unchanged from last month's outlook at 42,000 b/d this year and 53,000 b/d next year. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its forecast for US soybean oil use for biofuels in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, holding at 8.07mn metric tonnes for the 2026–27 marketing year. US soybean crush margins have remained volatile since the start of July, peaking at $3.268/bushel (bu) on 22 July before soybean oil futures prices dove lower. Crush margins were last calculated at $2.745/bu on 10 August. Current-year D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits were last assessed at 221.5¢/lb on 10 August, down substantially from an all-time high of 255.875¢/RIN reached on 7 July, lowering production margins for US biofuel producers. The US requires refiners to blend various types of biofuels each year or cover their obligations by purchasing RIN credits from others that do. By Thompson Corpus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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