IEA forecasts slower demand growth for EVs
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will continue to grow in most major markets this year, but at a slower rate, the IEA says. Global EV sales are due to top 17mn, more than a fifth of total global vehicle sales, but growth is expected to slow on 2023 in major markets. Almost 14mn new EVs were registered last year, up by 35pc on 2022, with 95pc of EV sales in China, Europe and the US. China will account for over half of global EV sales this year, with sales growing by 25pc on the year in 2024, passing 10mn for the first time. Under the IEA's stated policies scenario, EVs make up half of all car sales by 2035, reducing oil demand by 10mn b/d.
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Global battery installation growth slows in 1Q: SNE
Global battery installation growth slows in 1Q: SNE
Singapore, 7 May (Argus) — The growth of global electric vehicle (EV) battery installations during January-March this year has slowed with stuttering global EV demand, data from South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research show. Global EV battery installations during the first quarter rose by around 22pc from a year earlier to 158.8GWh compared with 36pc growth for the same period last year. Most top battery manufacturers have experienced lower growth rate ( see table ), with Japan's Panasonic and South Korea's SK On installing fewer batteries compared with a year earlier. China's Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and BYD continue to spearhead the growth, albeit also at a slower pace. Consumers' preference for battery EVs globally waned as plug-in hybrid EV and hybrid EVs growth gained momentum because of factors including continued high interest rates and a shortage of charging infrastructure, according to SNE. Samsung SDI earlier this year pinned its hopes on a gradual EV battery market recovery in this year's second half when it expected benefits from lower interest rates starting to be realised. Lower interest rates could spur consumers spending and business investment. But US Federal Reserve policymakers earlier this month signalled that they are likely to hold rates higher for longer until they are confident inflation is slowing "sustainably" towards the 2pc target. The higher interest rates and lower residual values of EVs given price cuts on new vehicles could push up EVs' monthly leasing terms, which are often financed, according to Dutch investment bank ING's senior economist Rico Luman and senior high yield credit strategist Oleksiy Soroka. The scaling back of subsidies in Germany will also weigh on EV uptakes, they said. The IEA has forecast that EV sales will continue to grow in most major markets this year but at a slower rate compared with 2023. Global EV sales this year are forecast to top 17mn, more than 20pc of total global vehicle sales. By Joseph Ho Global EV battery installations (GWh) Jan-Mar '24 Jan-Mar '23 1Q '24 y-o-y % ± 1Q '23 y-o-y % ± CATL 60.1 45.6 31.9% 32.9% BYD 22.7 20.3 11.9% 103% LGES 21.7 20.1 7.8% 43.6% Panasonic 9.3 10.6 -12.6% 21.8% Samsung SDI 8.4 6.2 36.3% 44.2% SK On 7.3 7.9 -8.2% 17.9% CALB 6.3 5.2 22.2% 26.8% EVE 3.6 2.3 54.7% 64.3% Guoxuan 3.4 2.7 22.1% 3.8% SVOLT 2.7 0.9 217.7% NA Others 13.4 8.4 59.2% NA Total 158.8 130.2 22% 35.8% Source: SNE Research 1. Calculated 1Q '23 growth rate using SNE Research adjusted figures 2. Used SNE Research 1Q '24 growth rate figures 3. Omitted 1Q '23 growth rate figure for "others" given SVOLT's likely in the list (making it an inaccurate comparison) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's WesCEF to pursue Li plans despite hurdles
Australia's WesCEF to pursue Li plans despite hurdles
Singapore, 3 May (Argus) — Australian conglomerate Wesfarmers will still pursue the strategy for its chemicals, energy and fertilisers arm (WesCEF) to be an integrated lithium producer, despite the recent lithium market downturn. Wesfarmers earlier this year warned of unprofitable lithium sales from its Mount Holland project , owing to high production costs as it goes through a ramp-up. But WesCEF plans to weather through the downturn and plow ahead with its lithium downstream developments, given strong long-term fundamentals and despite the market's immaturity and cyclical demand, according to the group's executives on 2 May. Spodumene prices in China — which dominates global consumption of lithium raw materials — were assessed at $1,080-1,180/t on 30 April, down sharply from $5,750-5,900/t at the start of 2023. "It's also worth remembering that when we invested in Covalent and took the final investment decision , lithium hydroxide prices were lower than they are today," said WesCEF's managing director Ian Hansen. Wesfarmers and Chilean lithium firm SQM jointly own Australian firm Covalent Lithium, which looks after the Mount Holland project that includes a mine, concentrator and its 50,000 t/yr Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery. Completing the refinery's construction and commissioning remains WesCEF's priority, with the mine and concentrator going through a ramp-up, according to WesCEF. The firm is also progressing its potential expansion project for the mine and concentrator, which it submitted an application for environmental approvals. The first lithium hydroxide output out of the Kwinana refinery is still expected in the first half of 2025, with a delay in timeline. Covalent completed its first spodumene concentrate shipment earlier in March, said WesCEF. Wesfarmers expected its share of spodumene concentrate output from Mount Holland to be 50,000t in the current July 2023-June 2024 fiscal year. The share will rise to 150,000-190,000t in the upcoming July 2024-June 2025 fiscal year. Lithium downturn The lithium downturn has led to multiple firms, including major particpants across the lithium and battery supply chain, reporting poor January-March results. Australian lithium and nickel producer IGO, affected by slumps in the lithium and nickel markets, reported its first quarterly loss in years while posting lower output . Major US lithium producer Albemarle's executives have also called the market "unsustainable" in the long run, as it posts a whopping $1.1bn year-on-year fall in sales from its energy storage division. Major Chinese lithium producer Tianqi Lithium also suffered heavy losses, while global lithium firm Arcadium Lithium earlier this year cut its planned sales numbers this year and warned that current market prices will weigh on future supply. South Korea's top battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution (LGES) reported W157bn of operating profit in January-March , but would have reported an operating loss of W32bn if it did not receive almost W189bn in US Inflation Reduction Act tax credits. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Battery storage stands out in Japan clean power auction
Battery storage stands out in Japan clean power auction
Osaka, 2 May (Argus) — Japan's first auction for long-term zero emissions power capacity has attracted strong bidding interest with a plan to install battery storage, as investment in the power storage system is gaining momentum in line with expanded use of fluctuating renewable energy sources. Japan launched the clean power auction system from the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, aiming to spur investment in clean power sources by securing funding for fixed costs in advance to drive the country's decarbonisation by 2050. The first auction, which was held in January, has awarded 1.1GW capacity for battery storage, or 27pc of total contract capacity for clean power sources, excluding gas-fired generation that has been temporally included in the auction system to help ensure stable power supplies, nationwide transmission system operator Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operator (Occto), which manages the auction, said on 26 April. Bidding capacity for battery storage totalled around 4.6GW, the highest volume among any other clean power sources. This means the contract ratio for storage batteries was 24pc compared with the 100pc ratio for ammonia co-firing, hydrogen co-firing , biomass dedicated and nuclear capacity, along with gas-fired capacity . Awarded capacity for battery storage as well as pumping-up electric power facilities reached 1.67GW, exceeding the 1GW sought by the auction. Japan has secured a total of 9.77GW of net zero capacity through the 2023-24 auction. Contract volumes covered 1.3GW of nuclear, 199MW biomass, 577MW of pumping-up electric power, 770MW for ammonia co-firing and 55.3MW hydrogen co-firing, as well as 1.1GW of battery storage. This also included 5.76GW of gas-fired projects. All winners under the auction can generally receive the money for 20 years through Occto, which collect money from the country's power retailers, although they need to refund 90pc of other revenue. The first auction saw total funding of ¥233.6bn/yr ($1.51bn) for decarbonisation power sources and ¥176.6bn/yr for gas-fired capacity. Japan's battery requirements are expected to continue rising, with uncertainty over future nuclear availability likely to spur Tokyo to accelerate the roll-out of renewable energy to meet a 46pc greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030-31 against 2013-14 levels — a target still far above the 23pc recorded in 2022-23. Japan will need to install 38-41GW of renewable capacity, nearly triple actual output of 14GW in 2019. Japan is looking to establish lithium-ion battery production capacity of 150GWh/yr domestically and 600GWh/yr globally by 2030. The trade and industry ministry projects the latter target will require 380,000 t/yr of lithium, 310,000 t/yr of nickel, 600,000 t/yr of graphite, 60,000 t/yr of cobalt and 50,000 t/yr of manganese. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Evion-Metachem Indian project starts producing graphite
Evion-Metachem Indian project starts producing graphite
Singapore, 2 May (Argus) — Australian graphite producer Evion's joint venture with Indian producer Metachem Manufacturing has produced and sold 700kg of expandable graphite, with more output planned in the coming months, after missing its timeline last year. Capacity of the expandable graphite plant, located at Kurkumbh near the west Indian city of Pune, will increase to at least 1,800 t/yr over the coming months, said Evion in its latest quarterly activity report. The agreement between the two firms originally envisioned 2,000-2,500 t/yr of production capacity in the first three years, with plans to begin an expansion to double the capacity starting from the second year. Evion previously was expecting first production in October-December 2023. Evion, formerly known as BlackEarth Minerals, back in 2021 signed an offtake deal with Austrian downstream graphite firm Grafitbergbau Kaiserberg for up to 2,500 t/yr of expandable graphite. Graphite concentrate for the plant is expected to come from external parties in the first two years of operations, subsequently switching to products from its Maniry graphite project in Madagascar, said Evion. Madagascar's national office for the environment is carrying out the environmental and social impact assessment for the Maniry project, according to Evion. India in July 2023 identified 30 critical minerals necessary to its green energy transition and energy self-reliance, including graphite. The country's mines ministry, through state trading firm MSTC, in March launched the second round of its auction , involving 18 blocks, for development of critical and strategic minerals in the country. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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