Pemex bajo presión para mantener refinación alta
La refinación de crudo de Pemex, propiedad estatal de México, en marzo alcanzó sus niveles más altos en casi ocho años antes de las elecciones presidenciales del 2 de junio, pero la empresa podría enfrentarse a desafíos para mantener niveles de refinadoaltos en los próximos meses.
Las seis refinerías nacionales de Pemex procesaron más de 1 millón b/d de crudo en marzo por primera vez desde junio de 2016, impulsadas por el progreso en la rehabilitación de las refinerías y una disminución de las exportaciones de crudo para alimentar el sistema de refinación.
El presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador busca reducir las importaciones de combustible en su último año en el cargo, en línea con su promesa de campaña de volver a México más independiente en energía.
Sin embargo, los niveles de proceso de crudo podrían disminuir en abril-mayo después de que se produjeran incendios en las refinerías Minatitlán y Salina Cruz a finales de abril.
Además, las refinerías de Salina Cruz (330,000 b/d) y Tula (315,000 b/d), las más grandes de México, siguen batallando con una producción elevada de combustóleo con alto contenido de azufre, lo que limita las capacidades de las refinerías para operar a altas tasas simultáneamente.
Pemex lleva mucho tiempo luchando con la elevada producción de combustóleo, ya que México produce principalmente crudo pesado, lo que crea una serie de desafíos operativos. El combustóleo suele ocupar valioso espacio de almacenamiento necesario para productos de mayor valor, lo que puede limitar la producción de combustibles más ligeros.
Las exportaciones récord de combustóleo en marzo, impulsadas por un aumento de la demanda en la costa del Golfo de EE. UU. después de los reacondicionamientos de la refinería, permitieron a Pemex elevar las operaciones en ambas refinerías simultáneamente.
Sin embargo, el problema podría volver a afectar a Pemex en los próximos meses cuando la demanda de combustóleo disminuya y la empresa se vea obligada a almacenar el producto.
Pemex está construyendo unidades de coquización en ambas refinerías para resolver este problema, pero no se espera que la unidad de Tula comience a funcionar hasta al menos finales de año, mientras que la unidad de coquización de Salina Cruz comenzaría a finales de 2025.
Mientras tanto, la refinería Cadereyta de 275.000 b/d podría compensar parcialmente una disminución en el procesamiento de crudo en Tula y Salina Cruz, ya que su configuración le permite producir menos combustóleo, una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de Pemex ha dicho a Argus.
Las tasas de refinación de Pemex comenzaron a caer en 2014 después de que la administración anterior decidiera depender menos de la producción nacional y centrarse en abrir el mercado de la energía, antes hermético a inversiones externas.
En cambio, López Obrador invirtió al menos $3.7 mil millones en mantenimiento para las refinerías antiguas de Pemex de 2019-2023, excluyendo proyectos importantes como las coquizadoras en construcción, además de $17 mil millones para la nueva refinería Olmeca.
Cambios en el flujo de crudo y combustible
Los mayores niveles de refinación de Pemex han disminuido el flujo de crudo y combustible entre México y EE. UU., y el arranque de Olmeca podría alterar aún más los flujos.
Pemex redujo sus importaciones de gasolina y diésel en 25pc a 419,000 b/d en marzo, comparado con 562,000 b/d el año pasado, como resultado de un mejor rendimiento de las refinerías.
Las exportaciones de crudo de México cayeron un 29pc hasta un mínimo histórico de 687,000 b/d en marzo, por una menor producción y mayores niveles de refinación.
El flujo de crudo y combustible entre México y EE. UU. podría disminuir aún más una vez que Olmeca comience operaciones comerciales y si Pemex mantiene un alto nivel de refinación en sus otras refinerías.
La refinería Olmeca comenzará a producir diésel de ultra bajo azufre esta semana, procesando destilados enviados desde la refinería Madero, dijo Pemex el 3 de mayo. Pero la refinería no ha cumplido varios plazos prometidos, el más reciente en abril.
La unidad de destilación de crudo de la refinería, la primera unidad de procesamiento, se enfrenta a "problemas importantes" que han retrasado el inicio de la refinería, aunque otras unidades de procesamiento secundario están listas para comenzar, dijo a Argus una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de Pemex.
Sin embargo, el mercado se mantiene escéptico de que se puedan mantener los niveles de refinación después de las elecciones del 2 de junio, ya que Pemex sigue enfrentándose a problemas operativos en sus refinerías.
Pero la candidata del partido gobernante Claudia Sheinbaum lidera la votación con doble dígito y se espera que continúe el proyecto actual del gobierno para reforzar Pemex y aumentar los niveles de refinación de la empresa.
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Texas barge collision shuts GIWW section: Correction
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