EU wheat yield forecasts rise

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture
  • 22/04/24

Warm weather improved forecasted wheat yields in the EU, according to the latest Monitoring Agricultural Resources (Mars) report from the European Commission (EC).

In the April Mars report, the EC cited warm spring temperatures as well as adequate water supplies as the main reasons for its increased yields forecast for the 2024-25 marketing year. In Spain and Portugal forecast yields were increased for durum wheat.

The EC anticipates soft wheat yields at 5.93t/ha, compared with 5.91t/ha in the prior estimate. Similarly, durum wheat estimated yields stand at 3.47t/ha compared with 3.44t/h in the prior estimate.


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20/05/24

Australia’s cropping conditions mixed: GPA

Australia’s cropping conditions mixed: GPA

Sydney, 20 May (Argus) — Australia's cropping regions show an imbalance as the winter crop planting period progresses, according to the Grain Producers Australia (GPA) latest 2024 season update. The report, which collected perspectives from GPA representatives in different cropping regions, revealed how dryness in Western Australia (WA) and Southern Australia (SA) is in contrast to favourable soil moisture and rainfall levels in the east Australia cropping regions of Queensland, New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria. WA growers are continuing to dry sow crops awaiting a significant rainfall event or "break" to germinate their crops. While some rain had fallen in May, most of the WA grain belt remains dry. Planting decisions in WA were influenced by the lack of rainfall, anticipated yields and future prices, according to the GPA report. Some growers are considering reducing their canola crop as the future price per tonne was unappealing, while others had already cut back their intended crop because of a dry rainfall outlook until June and the cost of canola seed. Others have withheld canola planting as they wait for a material seasonal break. These perspectives are consistent with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia's May crop report that projected canola area in 2024 would be down overall from 2023 because of dry conditions. The GPA report also stated anxiety among WA growers were heightened because of a relatively poor season last year, along with the ability of some growers to diversify income streams with a government decision to ban live sheep exports by May 2028. Northern and central western NSW had good rainfall and a positive start to the season, while growers in southern NSW were looking for rain to germinate dry sown crops. Victoria has good soil moisture for seeding, although one GPA member said access to some fertilisers was an issue for growers who wanted it on hand for winter. Queensland has had wet weather for its summer crop harvest. The sorghum harvest period, usually finished during February–March, according to GPA, was disrupted by heavy rainfall around Easter. This reduced crop quality and could potentially delay winter crop planting, according to a GPA member. The US Department of Agriculture crop calendar for Queensland indicates the typical planting period for winter crops of barley and wheat is May and April-July respectively. By Edward Dunlop Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sinking crop values weigh on US farmer profits in 2024


16/05/24
16/05/24

Sinking crop values weigh on US farmer profits in 2024

Houston, 16 May (Argus) — The cycle of above-average profits that has defined the US agricultural economy in recent seasons is fraying this year as crop prices slacken against elevated expenses. The domestic agricultural sector is forecast to endure a 24pc drop in net cash income this season — the sharpest year-over-year decline in the last decade — underpinned by a 6pc slump in crop sales revenue and modest growth in projected expenses, according to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest industry income statement. This retraction, which kicked off in 2023, forced many growers in key agricultural districts this season to augment non-real estate loans, slow debt repayment and restructure existing loans to meet liquidity requirements thanks in part to sliding global grain and oilseed prices. Lenders within the seventh and 10th Federal Reserve districts, which represent farmers across major growing regions, reported stronger loan demand and tightened working capital during the first quarter — signaling deteriorating farm finances. Working capital is measured as the difference between the value of assets that can be easily converted to cash and debt due within the next 12 months. Lower working capital valuation signals the ability to pay down debt could be challenged. Domestic agricultural working capital this year is estimated 17pc lower from 2023 and 6pc lower than the five-year average, according to USDA data. "Conditions in the US farm economy have tightened alongside lower prices for many key products and higher financing costs," the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported in its quarterly Ag Credit Survey . "Many lenders highlighted growing concerns about deterioration in working capital as a result of low prices, particularly for crop producers." US row-crop growers are expected to endure another season of price deterioration as global markets adjust to supply shocks stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine that rattled wheat values and key input prices for corn and soybeans. Domestic corn, soybean and wheat farm cash prices are projected to slump for a second consecutive season by 5pc, 11pc and 15pc, respectively, according to the latest projections from the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report. Corn growers, specifically, face losses this season amid a 4.6mn-acre cut in planted area from last season in tandem with sinking crop values. Margins are estimated -$65.75/acre, based on the latest new-crop contract close and early-season production volume estimates, after benefiting from peak earnings at $242.33/acre in 2022. Corn is a fertilizer-intensive crop, and changes in farmer profitability can erode input prices. Urea, the most widely traded fertilizer globally, is strongly tied to front-month corn futures and domestic barge prices have sunk to levels last seen in January 2021, tracking lower front-month corn futures since the start of the 2023-24 fertilizer season. Fertilizer expenses account for nearly 40pc of annual operating costs for domestic corn growers on a per-acre basis, with seed costs comprising an average 25pc, according to Argus analysis of USDA data. Plant nutrition expenses, though, surged in 2022 and remained above average in 2023 — reflecting historically elevated fertilizer prices during the same period. The USDA forecasts a 15pc dip in fertilizer costs in 2024 for corn growers, providing some reprieve compared with the last two years despite higher seed and various overhead expenses. "Factors like the rising costs of seeds, fertilizers and other inputs as well as more strict environmental regulations, specifically on water usage, have added to the financial and administrative burden for farmers," said Donnie Taylor, Agricultural Retailers Association senior vice-president of membership and corporate relations. By Connor Hyde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

La Nina outlook offers boost to Australian agriculture


16/05/24
16/05/24

La Nina outlook offers boost to Australian agriculture

Sydney, 16 May (Argus) — The outlook for Australia's crop and beef production is turning more positive in 2024-25, with the country's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) updating its climate forecast towards a La Nina weather trend forming at the end of this year. BoM updated its El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso) outlook to a La Nina Watch alert on 14 May, with indicators suggesting this phase developing in late 2024. Approximately half of all watch alerts have followed with the projected Enso event occurring. Crop production and grazing conditions will likely benefit from increased rainfall should the weather trend eventuate. La Nina is associated with higher than average winter-spring rainfall from the northwest to southeast of Australia. Grain yields and production in Australia's eastern cropping regions typically increase with a La Nina. Australia experienced record production during La Nina events that occurred during 2020-23. Winter crop production peaked at 69mn t and 63mn t in the 2022-23 and 2021-22 fiscal year respectively, according to Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Abares) data. The La Nina Watch alert comes as the US Department of Agriculture projected Australia's wheat production to increase by 3mn t from a year earlier to 29mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year, according to data released in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on 10 May. Coarse grain production is also projected to rise by 4pc to 14.87mn t. But Enso weather events have limited impact on southwest Western Australia (WA). A potential La Nina is unlikely to aid WA cropping zones currently experiencing very low soil moisture levels . Increased rainfall from a La Nina developing in late 2024 may not coincide with the growing season of east Australia's wheat crops, which are typically sown during April-June and harvested in November–January. Too much rain around the harvest can damage crops and degrade quality. Floods in late 2022 damaged harvests in New South Wales, resulting in Abares at the time downgrading the state's production projections by 2mn t. Increased rainfall in east Australia will boost pasture availability for cattle producers. Increased capacity of feed may encourage producers to increase herd sizes, potentially supporting future slaughter and beef production. But the agriculture industry may be wary of the BoM's latest outlook. BoM was widely criticised after last year's El Nino declaration in September, which promoted some producers to pre-emptively destock at low prices in fear of dry conditions that did not occur. By Edward Dunlop Australia winter-spring rainfall during La Nina years (deciles) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s live cattle exports slip back in April


16/05/24
16/05/24

Australia’s live cattle exports slip back in April

Sydney, 16 May (Argus) — Australian cattle exports fell in April from a month earlier as demand from Indonesia waned, Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) data show. Live cattle exports fell by 20pc to 60,521 head in April, as Indonesian demand dropped by 16pc but still made up 86pc of the monthly total. Indonesian imports rose , likely in preparation for the end of Islamic fasting month Ramadan celebrations in early April. Total exports may have also been affected by the continued wet season in northern Australia, supporting domestic prices and motivating producers to retain stock. The fall was partially offset by increased exports to Vietnam that rose by 37pc in April from March and comprised a 14pc share of shipments. January-April exports were 20pc higher than the same period of 2023. Australia as at 3 May has used 16pc of the total quota of 672,669 head of live male cattle under the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, according to DAFF. By Edward Dunlop Australia live cattle exports (head) Apr '24 Mar '24 Apr '23 Apr '22 Apr '21 Jan-Apr '24 Jan-Apr '23 Jan-Apr '22 Jan-Apr '21 Indonesia 51,941 62,041 26,926 35,936 39,659 129,381 97,170 102,860 138,384 Vietnam 8,290 6,041 9,580 4,688 3,713 32,037 20,721 7,730 44,367 China 0 3,500 7,160 1,609 7,061 32,306 27,003 41,439 34,600 Malaysia 290 0 0 59 1,893 1,490 1,749 879 6,667 Israel 0 501 9,252 1,596 0 2,728 19,798 13,041 11,909 Total 60,521 75,704 55,611 45,288 59,396 209,592 175,299 171,482 250,100 Source: DAFF Totals include all destinations not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil sets planting calendar for 2024-25 soybean crop


15/05/24
15/05/24

Brazil sets planting calendar for 2024-25 soybean crop

Sao Paulo, 15 May (Argus) — Brazil's ministry of agriculture (Mapa) released the calendar for the sanitary void period and planting window of the 2024-25 soybean crop, beginning in September. The sanitary void is a minimum 90-day period when growing the oilseed is prohibited, a phytosanitary measure to limit the proliferation of the highly destructive Asian rust fungal disease. Brazilian producers also adopt a planting calendar as a complementary measure to control the disease. It aims to streamline fungicide applications and minimize the risks of Asian rust developing resistance to the chemical products. The country's agriculture ministry defines the calendar for each state according to expected weather conditions and suggestions made by regional agencies and governments. The sanitary void of Mato Grosso state — Brazil's largest soybean producer — is set from 8 June-6 September, with planting starting soon after and finishing by 7 January. Rio Grande do Sul will begin its sanitary void as of 3 July, with field works allowed as of 1 October and planting expected to end on 28 January. The state is currently Brazil's second-largest soybean producer for the 2023-24 season, but flooding in the past weeks may hamper production . The calendar for Parana state — the third largest soybean producer this season — varies for each region. The whole state is prohibited from growing soybeans from 22 June. Some areas can start sowing on 1 September, with activities ending by 19 January. By Nathalia Giannetti 2024-25 soybean crop calendar State Sanitary Void Planting calendar Acre 22 June - 20 September 2024 21 September 2024 - 8 January 2025 Alagoas 1 January - 1 April 2025 2 April - 10 July 2025 Amapa 1 December 2024 - 28 February 2025 1 March - 8 June 2025 Amazonas 10 June 2024 - 10 September 2024 11 September -21 December 2024 Bahia 26 June - 24 September 2024 25 September - 31 December 2024 Ceara 3 November 2024 - 31 January 2025 1 February - 31 May 2025 Distrito Federal 1 July - 30 September 2024 1 October 2024 - 8 January 2025 Goias 27 June - 24 September 2024 25 September - 2 January 2025 Maranhao Region I: 3 July - 30 September 2024 Region II: 3 August - 31 October 2024 Region III: 2 September - 30 November 2024 Region I: 1 October 2024 - 8 January 2025 Region II: 1 November 2024 - 8 February 2025 Region III: 1 December 2024 - 8 March 2025 Minas Gerais 1 July - 30 September 2024 1 October 2024 - 8 January 2025 Mato Grosso 8 June - 6 September 2024 7 September 2024 - 7 January 2025 Mato Grosso do Sul 15 June - 15 September 2024 16 September - 31 December 2024 Para Region I: 15 June - 15 September 2024 Region II: 1 August - 31 Ocotber 2024 Region III: 15 August - 15 November 2024 Region I: 16 September 2024 - 14 January 2025 Region II: 11 November 2024 - 28 February 2025 Region III: 16 November 2024 - 14 March 2025 Parana Region I: 21 June - 19 September 2024 Region II: 2 June - 31 August 2024 Region III: 22 June - 20 September 2024 Region I: 20 September 2024 - 18 January 2025 Region II: 1 September - 30 December 2024 Region III: 21 September 2024 - 19 January 2025 Piaui Region I: 1 September - 30 November 2024 Region II: 1 August - 31 October 2024 Region III: 1 July - 29 September 2024 Region I: 1 December 2024 - 20 March 2025 Region II: 1 November 2024 - 18 February 2025 Region III: 30 September 2024 - 27 January 2025 Rio de Janeiro 15 June - 28 September 2024 29 September 2024 - 6 January 2025 Rio Grande do Sul 3 July - 30 September 2024 1 October 2024 - 28 January 2025 Rondonia 10 June -10 September 2024 11 September 2024 - 9 January 2025 Roraima 19 December 2024 - 18 March 2025 19 March 2025 - 26 June 2025 Santa Catarina Region I: 4 July - 12 Obtober 2024 Regions II-IV: 4 July - 1 October 2024 Region I: 13 October 2024 - 10 February 2025 Regions II-III: 2 October 2024 - 30 January 2025 Region IV: 2 October 2024 - 10 January 2025 Sao Paulo Region I: 1 June - 31 August 2024 Region II: 12 June - 12 September 2024 Region III: 15 June - 15 September 2024 Region I: 1 September - 29 December 2024 Region II: 13 September 2024 - 10 January 2025 Region III: 16 September 2024 - 24 December 2024 Tocantins 1 July - 30 September 2024 1 October 2024 - 15 January 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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