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Estoques de etanol no Centro-Sul recuam em abril

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels
  • 29/04/24

Os estoques de etanol no Centro-Sul caíram 18pc na primeira metade de abril, à medida que as atividades da safra de cana-de-açúcar de 2024-25 começaram.

Os estoques do biocombustível na principal região produtora do Brasil recuaram para 2,2 milhões de m³ até o dia 16 de abril, em comparação com 2,7 milhões de m³ registrados na quinzena anterior, segundo dados do Ministério da Agricultura. Na comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado, quando os estoques foram de 1,9 milhão de m³, o avanço foi de 17pc.

Os estoques de etanol hidratado representaram 1,3 milhões de m³ do total acumulado no período, baixa de 14pc na quinzena e alta de 12pc na variação anual. Já o etanol anidro totalizou cerca de 875.700m³, queda de 23pc na comparação com a quinzena anterior e crescimento de 25pc no ano.

Até 16 de abril, 171 plantas haviam iniciado as operações para a nova temporada, em comparação com 166 unidades no mesmo período do ciclo anterior, de acordo com a União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia (Unica).

O início da safra facilitou o acesso de participantes de mercado aos estoques do biocombustível, ao passo que alguns players reportaram dificuldades em comprar de estoques no fim de março.

Produção sucroalcooleira do Centro-Sul
15-Abrilano atrás±
Etanol total 830.437721.63015%
Cana-de-açúcar '000t15.84715.1555%
Açúcar t675.822582.47616%

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30/06/25

US Senate bill cuts 45Z extension, boosts crops

US Senate bill cuts 45Z extension, boosts crops

New York, 30 June (Argus) — The latest Senate draft of a major US budget bill would extend a biofuels tax break for an additional two years, down from four years in the prior draft, and set far more sweeping limits on foreign feedstocks. The "45Z" clean fuel production credit would last until 2029 and be available for only domestically produced fuels produced from North American feedstocks starting next year, according to a draft released over the weekend by Senate leaders that could be voted on as soon as Monday. An earlier Senate draft proposed extending the incentive through 2031 and cutting credit values for foreign feedstocks by just 20pc. The incentive, part of the Inflation Reduction Act, kicked off this year and currently offers a sliding scale of subsidy to US-made alternative fuels through 2027 based on their greenhouse gas emissions. The updated language is a win for farm groups, which have worried that imports of used cooking oil, tallow, and sugarcane ethanol are hurting demand for home-grown crops that can also be turned into biofuels. Refiners that had previously looked abroad for renewable diesel inputs, expanding US production to record levels last year, would have to pay up for scarcer domestic options. A shorter credit extension could frustrate corners of the industry that had emphasized the need for policy certainty — including companies with plans to start producing novel fuels later this decade — although biofuel incentives have a long history of extensions. For instance, the Senate bill would revive an expired tax credit for small biodiesel producers in a major change from earlier drafts. Facilities with capacities of no more than 60mn USG/yr could claim a 20¢/USG subsidy for up to 15mn USG of annual production this year and next year, supplementing tax breaks they can already claim under 45Z. That could keep more biodiesel plants, which have struggled to adapt to policy changes and competition from larger renewable diesel producers, running after a difficult start to the year. Smaller producers also would benefit from the latest Senate draft preserving the ability of companies without enough tax liability to sell tax credits to others. The bill is otherwise similar to earlier versions. It would still bar regulators next year from considering indirect emissions from land use changes, a shift from current law that in effect ups subsidies for fuels made from crops, another top priority for farm groups. If passed, the typical gallon of US dry mill corn ethanol and canola biodiesel would likely qualify for some 45Z subsidy — unlike under current rules — and soybean-based road fuels would earn larger credits next year. Aviation fuels conversely would see slimmer subsidies starting next year, since the bill would eliminate extra credit under current law for jet fuels over road fuels. That would be a major disruption to airlines and to those refiners that have invested in upgrading more of their renewable diesel output to instead produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Trucking groups had argued that the imbalance was diverting feedstocks away from road markets to costlier SAF production — and that treating fuel types equally was one way conservative lawmakers could reduce the credit's price-tag. More changes possible The bill could be changed further Monday as the Senate proceeds with a process in which lawmakers can propose amendments. If the bill passes, it would go back to the House for approval. President Donald Trump has pushed lawmakers to finalize the sprawling package this week, an ambitious timeline given lawmakers still disagree on key issues. Any revised 45Z credit would also need final rules from the US Department of Treasury, which still has questions to answer about eligibility this year. The ultimate profitability of biofuels will depend on interactions between the tax credit and other policies that are also in flux. That includes a federal biofuel blend mandate, which the Trump administration wants to revamp to discourage foreign feedstocks, and newly tougher carbon intensity targets in California's influential low-carbon fuel standard market. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan plans task force to address SAF price challenges


30/06/25
30/06/25

Japan plans task force to address SAF price challenges

Tokyo, 30 June (Argus) — Japan's trade and industry ministry (Meti) will put together a task force to discuss how to further promote the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This comes as high prices remain a concern, reflecting a gap between refiners' costs and airlines' price requirements. The price of domestically produced SAF, even with support to suppliers of the renewable jet fuel, is far from the level at which airlines can purchase without affecting their revenues and profits, a Meti official said. It has become a big challenge to close the gap between the current price of SAF and the acceptable price for airlines, he added. Meti held a meeting of its SAF deployment promotion committee on 25 June, at which its member industry groups and companies approved a plan to set up the task force under the committee. The team will discuss how to cover the difference in prices and aims to report possible measures in December, the Meti official said. The proposals will arrive as the country's refiners make final investment decisions on their SAF projects. Meti awarded a public tender to four Japanese refiners — Eneos, Cosmo Oil, Idemitsu and Taiyo Oil — in February to receive financial assistance on their domestic SAF projects . The refiners are expected to make decisions on investments in these projects this year or the next, the ministry added. The ministry now seeks to make clear the direction of the country's SAF initiatives to help refiners with their upcoming investment decisions. Construction costs are rising because of a personnel shortage, and it is hard to make investment decisions without a clearer idea about the strength of demand or a market design, the refining industry said in the meeting. Meanwhile, the airline sector said that deploying high-priced SAF will hurt revenues. It is structurally difficult to sustain business at the current price level, the sector added. "With a scheme design provided, it will be easier for us to make decisions," a SAF project member of a Japanese refiner told Argus . "Without a well-designed scheme, domestic SAF cannot be widely used. Price gap coverage might be the best option, or a mandatory use of SAF might also be effective," he said. But it does not seem likely that Meti will finalise the scheme design by December. "There's no need to fully decide everything by the end of this year," the Meti official said. A large amount of domestic SAF will come into the market around 2028 or 2029, so the committee will work on details on the scheme and finalise it by then, he added. Japan aims to replace 10pc of the jet fuel consumption by domestic airlines with SAF in 2030. The country's SAF requirements, including foreign airlines' demand, will be around 1.7mn kl in 2030. Supply will be around 1.9mn kl in 2030, calculations by Meti and the land transport ministry as of January 2024 show. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

SEA biodiesel industry looks to decarbonise: Correction


30/06/25
30/06/25

SEA biodiesel industry looks to decarbonise: Correction

Corrects figure for capital expenditure forecast in paragraph 15 Singapore, 30 June (Argus) — Regional biodiesel associations from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia called for stakeholder support to further decarbonisation goals during the 5th Palm Biodiesel Conference in Bangkok over 23-24 June. Thai electrification shift competes with biodiesel industry Thailand has been driving a shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) under the 30@30 policy, targeting at least 30pc of total motor vehicles produced annually by 2030 to be EVs, while support for biodiesel producers is waning, said Thai biodiesel producer association Chairman Sanin Triyanond. Thailand will no longer subsidise the price of biofuels such as biodiesel under the oil fund act after 24 September 2026, said Supatchalee Sophonthammaphat, an official with the Thai department of alternative energy development and efficiency (DEDE). Triyanond called for both the EV and biodiesel industries to coexist, citing a study that said an EV and biofuel energy mix was recommended for the country. A low biodiesel blend target in Thailand resulted in only 30pc of Thailand's 11.7mn l/d in installed biodiesel capacity being utilised, and high operating costs across its 14 registered companies, Triyanond said. When domestic crude palm oil (CPO) stocks fall below 200,000t, local prices also increase in comparison to the global price, he added. This raises the cost of production when biodiesel producers import CPO as it is subject to 143pc import tax and exempt from export duties in Thailand. Thailand manages CPO supplies and prices by altering its volumetric blend target for biodiesel under the alternative energy development plan (AEDP). However, the biodiesel industry has been struggling with a low blending policy and feels that the stock management program needs to be redesigned to better support producers. Indonesia needs more investment to hit B50 biodiesel blend goal Indonesia is targeting 15.6mn kl of domestic biodiesel consumption in 2025 and has been conducting road tests for a higher B50 biodiesel blend with fossil diesel this year. To meet higher biodiesel blend ratios in subsequent years, new investment from the private sector and policy support from the government on pricing, funding and legislation is needed to drive infrastructure upgrades and capacity expansions, said deputy of promotion and communication at the Indonesian biofuels producer association (APROBI) Ravi Farkhan Pratama. For suppliers, complex logistics resulting in higher costs for transporting biodiesel to remote regions remain, said manager of biofuel and additive supply chain at PT Pertamina Patra Niaga Adi Rachman. A price disparity between public service obligation (PSO) and non-PSO (NPSO) biodiesel blends in the market poses a challenge in ensuring each fuel is supplied to the right customer group, he added. The PSO sector includes state-owned firms that serve the public. Fuel suppliers in this sector receive subsidies from the oil plantation fund management agency (BPDPKS) to fund the difference between palm oil-based biodiesel and the indexed price of diesel, while non-PSO fuel suppliers do not. Biodiesel plants in Indonesia have been running at an average 80pc of Indonesia's 20.9mn kl/yr installed capacity across 24 producers this year, said Pratama. Indonesia consumed about 20pc of annual CPO production under the B35 blend mandate in 2024. This year's B40 biodiesel blend mandate could eat into exports and other avenues including food use, Pratama added. Any further increase to blending mandates would exacerbate how palm supplies are distributed between food and fuel. There are also additional costs around infrastructure upgrades such as coating pipelines and storage tanks, said Rachman. A move to a B50 blend mandate would likely happen in 2027 or later, said head of B40 road test and B40 commercial test team at LEMIGAS research and development center of oil & gas technology, ministry of energy and mineral resources Cahyo Setyo Wibowo at the event. Malaysian biodiesel producers push for higher blending mandates Malaysia's B20 biodiesel blend mandate set in January 2020 has been limited to Pulau Langkawi, Kedah, Labuan and Sarawak in the transport sector. A separate 7pc biodiesel blend is required in the industrial sector, first mandated in July 2019. President of Malaysian biodiesel association Tee Lip Teng sought a nationwide B20 implementation for on-road fuels, and a B30 blend ratio by 2030. However, Tee said that a capital expenditure of more than 600mn ringgit ($142mn) would be required to achieve a full B30 nameplate biodiesel production capacity for the transport sector in Malaysia. On the other hand, the country is set to introduce a carbon tax as early as next year, allowing palm oil methyl ester (PME) prices to be more competitive, he added. Lower palm oil prices in relation to gasoil amid oil market uncertainty and during the upcoming peak palm production season could also drive voluntary blending. But fossil diesel continues to be subsidised for qualified businesses in the transportation and logistics sector, increasing the funding burden needed to subsidise PME in these sectors. While PME production continues to face challenges, Tee cited the potential to expand waste-based biodiesel production in Malaysia. Biodiesel exports out of Malaysia rose up to 2019 before declining afterward due to the EU ban on palm-based biofuels, Tee said. Majority of the biodiesel exported now comprises used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) and palm oil mill effluent oil methyl ester (Pomeme) rather than PME, he added. First generation biodiesel producers should be incentivised through government grants to retrofit their plants to use waste-based oils to complement their existing palm oil feedstock, Tee said. Other alternative feedstocks carrying a lower levelized cost of production such as palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) should be considered as a feedstock of choice, said general manager for strategy and sustainability at Petronas Dagangan Berhad Ms. Harlina Pikri. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California office approves LCFS changes: Update


27/06/25
27/06/25

California office approves LCFS changes: Update

Updates throughout with detail from CARB, fuel market context. Houston, 27 June (Argus) — Tough new California low-carbon road fuel standards that stoked fears of price hikes will apply to the second half of this year, state regulators said today. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will require a 9pc reduction in gasoline and diesel carbon intensity for fuels supplied beginning 1 July following today's approval of long-awaited revisions to the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). Approval by the state Office of Administrative Law (OAL) advanced program changes unexpectedly delayed for six months by regulatory review. The rule now takes effect under heightened political scrutiny on how California drivers will shoulder its costs and where future supplies will come from. "Our efforts to deploy more zero-emission vehicles and reduce fossil fuel use is working to cut demand and create more competition in the fuels market, and the LCFS is a big part of that effort," CARB chairwoman Liane Randolph said. Third-quarter 2025 credits traded higher by 11pc during Friday's session before falling back as participants processed the news. The implied cost passed through to drivers remained at less than 10¢/USG. LCFS programs require yearly reductions of road fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. CARB in November approved changes including a 30pc reduction target by 2030, down from 20pc. The rule limits credit generation from biofuels made from crop-based feedstocks, automates advancing to tougher targets when new credits greatly exceed deficits and imposes other changes that take effect over the next 15 years. Long-sought approval CARB's changes followed years of workshops and other discussion to address surging credit generation blunting incentives to supply lower-carbon alternatives. New credit generation from the supply of alternative fuels has exceeded new deficits for at least 15 consecutive quarters, amassing an inventory of credits available for future compliance totalling more than 1.6 times the number of new deficits generated in all of 2024. Spot LCFS credit prices have fallen from $200/t in early 2021 to roughly $70/t at the start of the rulemaking process and as low as $40/t earlier this month. The imbalance focused attention on the when, rather than the what, of the new rule's enforcement. Each additional quarter of the status quo was assumed to add to the towering volume of unused credits looming over the market until a party used them for compliance. The old benchmarks will now apply to credit and deficit generation for fuels supplied in the first half of the year. The new standards will apply to fuels delivered beginning 1 July and beyond. OAL surprised the market by disapproving the rulemaking in February. Uncertainty over the program's obligations and opportunities chilled the LCFS credit market this year. Credits plunged lower by 17pc after the disapproval. They sank again following CARB's 16 May submittal of revisions to the rule, falling earlier this month to their lowest traded levels in nearly a year, as traders digested a slower pace of implementation. Political focus The aggressive new targets and other changes approved by the board last year lifted trader confidence of higher future prices. But that outlook also caught the attention of political leaders wary of complaints about California's cost of living. The state's Republican lawmakers have repeatedly touted estimates of a 65¢/USG increase in fuel prices based on an assumption credits immediately would rocket toward the highest possible prices. Pass-through costs for gasoline were closer to 7-10¢/USG so far this year. Democratic state senators earlier this week proposed capping LCFS credit prices at roughly $75/t and working with other states to develop a new, regional gasoline specification to alleviate growing supply concerns. Much of CARB's announcement of the new measures focused on how drivers would experience the changes. Governor Gavin Newsom (D) earlier this week issued a statement rebutting arguments that the change would spark a large run up in gasoline prices. Both the legislative proposal and court cases against the rulemaking remain pending as the long-awaited changes moved toward enforcement next week. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California office approves LCFS changes


27/06/25
27/06/25

California office approves LCFS changes

Houston, 27 June (Argus) — California's regulatory watchdog today approved long-awaited changes to the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and an effective date of 1 July, the office said today. The state's Office of Administrative Law (OAL) confirmed that it approved revised rulemaking language that sets a 9pc tougher program target for 2025, limits participation for crop-based biofuels, and other changes to a program that has helped reshape US west coast fuel markets. OAL also approved the 1 July start date CARB had requested, the office said in a statement. The decision advances program changes unexpectedly delayed for six months by regulatory review. But the rule now takes effect with heightened political scrutiny on how California drivers will shoulder its costs. CARB staff did not immediately describe how the agency would implement the rule. Suppliers have sought clarity on how the agency will apply changes to a year already half-over. LCFS programs require yearly reductions of road fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Uncertainty over the program's obligations and opportunities chilled the LCFS credit market this year. Credits plunged lower by 17pc after OAL disapproved the rulemaking in February. They sank again following CARB's 16 May submittal of revisions to the rule, falling earlier this month to their lowest traded levels in nearly a year. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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