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Preconference Workshop Day and Opening Cocktail Reception, April 23, 2018
13:30 - 17:30 Opportunities and restrictions for the new bunker fuel market: Attend this interactive workshop to understand the options for refiners and traders regarding the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) sulfur regulation deadline. What are the opportunities for more dynamic refiners and how will blending options change? How flexible are refiners to switch crudes, and how will these restrictions continue to impact blending as we approach and pass 2020? What should refiners know about the light-heavy spread’s impact on the timing of the spreads market for both crude and products?
  • Explore the options for refiners and traders following the IMO sulfur regulation
  • Analyze the opportunities refiners have within blending
  • Assess how light/-heavy spreads are widening and who will take the high sulfur resid that cannot be converted
Steve Weber
Vice -President, Petrochemical and Refining
Argus Consulting Services

Edward Arnold

Senior Consultant
Argus Consulting Services

‎Stephen Jones

Senior Vice President, Business Development
17:30 - 19:30 Opening Network Reception and Registration
Event attendees only
Meet and network with newly made business contacts and other representatives of the supply chain.

Main Conference Day 1, April 24, 2018
08:00 - 09:00 Registration and Breakfast
09:00 - 09:05 Chairperson's Welcome and Opening Remarks

Stephen Jones
Senior Vice President, Business Development
09:05 – 10:00
Day 1 morning keynote address – The Marpol Annex VI regulation from a refiner’s perspective: Hear from a leading refiner about how Marpol 2020 will change the refining landscape and alter supply, demand and the price of a variety of commodities globally. Additionally, you will hear how this shifting landscape is driving new initiatives to develop, produce and blend products that will deliver the properties and stability required to comply with the specification change.
  • Understand the impacts on market participants and key considerations to prepare for the change
  • Hear an overview of the latest views on implementation and enforcement
  • Preview some of the first details of actual 2020 compliant 0.5pc fuel blends
Jason Breslaw
Marpol Lead for 0.5% Marine Fuels Development
BP Products North America
 10:00 - 10:30 Light-heavy spreads: What impact will the new regulations have for refiners and oil producers? The light-heavy spread will certainly be widening. How will this benefit refiners who have coking capacity, if at all, and what are the impacts on simple and cracking refiners? What are the expectations for spreads as we approach the 2020 deadline?
  • Explanation of Argus’ view on the light-heavy spread impact (degree and duration)
  • Description of Argus’ view on how this will affect supply and demand for low sulfur distillates and high sulfur resid
  • Outline of the many uncertainties as we approach the deadline
Edward Arnold
Senior Consultant
Argus Consulting Services
10:30 - 11:00  Morning Networking Break
11:00 - 12:30 Session 1: Implications on the Water

The impact on shipowners
: This presentation, featuring a prominent figure from a major shipping line, will discuss the global marine market up to and through 2020. During this talk, we will evaluate the global marine market as a whole and provide details on scrubber investments, anticipated liquefied natural gas (LNG) use, and other details related to the enactment of the quickly approaching sulfur regulations.
  • Explore how one of the most well-known shipping lines is viewing the global marine market, and what the anticipated changes in supply and demand for bunker fuel should be going forward 
  • Assess how the bunker market is ramping up for the regulatory changes and analyze questions on compliance, enforcement, penalties and other unknowns 
  • Analyze key considerations for the global freight market including LNG, scrubbers and other new points of discussion 
Gary Morgan
Director, Market Analysis, Deep Sea Tankers
Clarksons Platou Shipping Services USA LLC

“To fit or not to fit?” – The economics of scrubbers from a VLCC perspective
: Join us as we assess the financial considerations for retrofits and analyze different scenarios for fuel differentials. Additionally, we will outline key questions including if fuel supply is anticipated to be sufficient, what will be the long-term high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and other looming concerns.
  • Assess the financial considerations for retrofits
  • Explore the outlook for fuel supply and long-term HSFO 
  • Evaluate the costs of fitting a scrubber on a VLCC
Vivek Srivastava
Director of Tanker Research
SSY Consultancy & Research

Bracing for change – Understanding expected shifts in consumption, economics and markets
: This presentation will discuss how the changes we have been analyzing are impacting shipping markets. How is fuel consumption anticipated to change and how will this impact overall supply and demand dynamics? What are the expected shifts in costs before and after 2020, and how will this impact oil flows and the overall tanker markets?
  • Assess expected shifts in marine fuel consumption 
  • Understand potential fuel price differentials
  • Analyze aggregate shipping fuel costs 
  • Evaluate the impact on oil flows and tanker markets
Tim Smith
Director, Oil and Tanker Markets
12:30 - 14:00 Networking Luncheon
14:00 - 15:30
Session 2: Pricing, Ports and Compliance

Price impacts on bottom of the barrel
: How will US and Latin American refiners change their operations in response to the impending IMO sulfur regulation and what is the outlook for the global refining industry in light of narrower margins, slowing US domestic demand for gasoline and ULSD, increasing US refined products exports; all impacting bottom of the barrel products?
  • Explore scenarios for refiners 
  • Understand the implications these scenarios will have on bottom of the barrel products
Stefka Wechsler
Marine Fuel and Fuel Oil Price Analyst

Port case study- Impact of the sulfur deadline on the marine industry
: Hear a prominent port explore key questions including exemptions around safety, port of call and other specifics regarding the regulation. How will companies view the exemption which allows a ship to conduct trials for the development of ship emission reduction and engine design programs and what is the process for permitting for this?
  • Understand how a major port plans to adjust to the new standards and guidelines
  • Assess different types of exemptions and key metrics in compliance
  • Analyze proper permitting for different scenarios as the regulation rolls out
Marpol compliance- A legal perspective on the IMO sulfur regulations: With the impending IMO deadline quickly approaching, hear from a legal and environmental expert how the sulfur regulations will impact the heavy distillates, potential exemptions and other key considerations. 

  • Analyze the sulfur regulation from a legal and environmental perspective
  • Understand details on enforcement and compliance
  • Evaluate the landscape for exemptions and regulatory details 
Brendan Collins
Environment & Natural Resources Partner
Ballard Spahr LLP
15:30 - 16:00 Afternoon Networking Break 
16:00 - 17:00  Interactive panel discussion – Bunker fuel and trading: This session, featuring leading organizations in the bunker fuel space, will provide in-depth perspectives into the heavy markets and supply and demand dynamics. What are organizations looking for in procurement strategies and what are the realistic action items for the Marpol regulations, along with the corresponding trading trends? Attend this session to hear additional details and join the conversation in-person or submit questions via Planned discussion points include:
  • Overall supply and demand including decreasing Russian exports, the Venezuelan market and Asia-Pacific availability
  • Hedging for shipping markets 
  • Market structure and current state of tankers 
  • Individual sectors including dry bulk and cargo 
  • End-user volume for bunkers 
  • Quality versus price 
  • And more! 
Mikhail Shapiro
Glencore Ltd.

Jason Breslaw
Marpol Lead for 0.5% Marine Fuels Development
BP Products North America

Lana Piterova
Senior Bunker & Lubricant Trader
Arte Bunkering LLC

Stephen Jones

Senior Vice President, Business Development
17:00 - 19:00 Networking Summit and Cocktail Reception
Main Conference Day 2, April 25, 2018
08:00 - 09:00 Morning Networking Session and Breakfast
09:00 - 09:25 Opening Announcements and Day 1 Recap

Stephen Jones
Senior Vice President, Business Development

09:25 - 10:00 Implications on the refining industry – Thoughts on the IMO spec change: As interpretations of the regulation continue to develop, we will highlight how a leading refiner is viewing these inevitable market shifts. Join us as we discuss key details including anticipated levels of compliance and scrubber adoption rates, as well as potential increases in investment for refining units and cokers. Additionally, we will explore changes with crude segregations, blending considerations, how 0.5pc marine oil will be deployed in 2020 and more.
  • Explore how the 2020 deadline will impact the refining landscape and crude segregations
  • Assess potential compliance scenarios and scrubber adoption rates, and the effect on investments in refining units 
  • Analyze details around blending considerations and deployment when the new sulfur regulation takes effect 
10:00 - 10:30
Looking for dislocation points in the age of Marpol 2020: The ability of refiners to sell into the residual fuel oil (RFO) market has historically been a pressure relief valve for the bottom of the barrel. After the enforcement of Annex VI, this outlet will be severely reduced. Working from the premise that crude oil is global while refined products are regionally limited, the presentation will explore the global refining sector for dislocation points. Many of these points are already hot spots for capital investment, but not all of them. With a typical capital investment of $1bn+ for any bottom of the barrel upgrading technology, where will the “smart” money go?
  • Understand impending changes to the bottom of the barrel following enforcement
  • Assess the global refining sector for dislocation points
  • Explore areas for capital investment and understand where the best investments are
Evan Hyde
Co-Owner, Sr. Technologist Inc. 
10:30 - 11:00 Morning Networking Break
11:00 - 12:00 Session 3: Regional Outlook for Refiners

Refining strategy and optimization – China’s impact on the world bunkering market: Marpol is getting all of the headlines, but China’s upcoming 2019 0.5pc deadline is making waves throughout the global refining industry as well. How will this fundamental market shift further impact the refining industry, creating even more of a necessity for refiners to act today and not wait for a consensus from the shipowners?
  • Explore China’s upcoming 2019 0.5pc sulfur shift and the impact on the global bunker market
  • Understand implications when considering changes in refinery configurations and optimization
  • Assess why refiners need to act today and not wait any longer to take action 
Mel Larson
Principal Consultant
KBC Advanced Technologies

The European VGO market: In Europe, a lot of companies are using vacuum gas oil (VGO) for bunkering. How will this shift as we approach 2020 and what will this do to global supply and demand for VGO? How will refiners in Europe and around the globe view this change?
  • Discuss how VGO supply and demand will shift as we approach 2020 
  • Analyze how European refiners are anticipating refinery economics to shift as a result
Jack Wittels
Deputy Editor
12:00 - 12:05

Chairperson's Day 2 Closing Comments and Conference Conclusion

Stephen Jones
Senior Vice President, Business Development

Days to go!
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