Brazil's 2024 grain, ferts freights unusually low

: Agriculture, Fertilizers
24/03/22

The slow pace of farmer selling for Brazil's 2023-24 soybean crop and lower liquidity in the fertilizer market have contributed to lower demand for transport services in early 2024, also raising concerns about a possible logistical bottleneck.

Demand to transport grains in Brazil usually peaks in the first quarter — increasing freight rates — because of the soybean crop harvest. Works in the current cycle have proceeded at a satisfactory pace, despite climatic problems brought by the El Nino weather phenomenon. The harvest in Mato Grosso state — Brazil's largest oilseed producer — reached 95.6pc of planted areas by the week ended 15 March, only 0.9 of a percentage point below the previous harvest and 0.6 of a percentage point below the five-year average for the period, according to the state's institute of agricultural economy Imea.

But crop sales have been slow. Farmers in Mato Grosso sold 46.3pc of the 2023-24 soybean crop by early March, 5.9 percentage points less than in the previous crop and 19 points behind the five-year average for the period, according to Imea. Lower oilseed prices in the international market have encouraged producers to slow the pace of sales.

As a result, grain freight rates during harvest time fell — which is unusual for this time of year — on lower demand for transportation services. Freight rates on the Sorriso-Rondonopolis route, bound for the rail terminal in Rondonopolis, reached R153/metric tonne ($31/t) in the first week of March, from R200/t in the same period in 2023.

In the corridors towards Miritituba, in Para state, via the BR-163 highway to the waterway transshipment point, the Sorriso-Miritituba route was at R253/t in early March, from R315/t last year.

The Querencia-Palmeirante route, to Tocantins state and then via rail to the port of Itaqui in Maranhao state, reached R260/t in early March, from R335/t last year.

The Rondonopolis-Paranagua route, bound south, was at R338/t in the beginning of March, down from R390/t in the same period in 2023.

Demand for fertilizer freights was also unusually lower in the first quarter. At this time of year, farmers typically receive large volumes of fertilizers to attend to their soybean harvest and corn planting activities.

But the purchase of inputs was also delayed as farmers postponed crop sales. With lower liquidity in the nutrient market, demand for transportation services was also lower.

In Paranagua, freight rates to Rondonopolis reached R234/t in early March, from R276/t in 2023. Freight costs to Sorriso stood at R318/t, from R348/t in 2023.

Freight demand for routes originating in the Santos and Cubatao ports, in Sao Paulo state, and bound to Mato Grosso, was also lower. Freight rates to Sorriso reached R365/t in March, from R385/t a year earlier. Costs to Rondonopolis stood at R255/t in the period, from R280/t a year prior.

In the Northern Arc, trends on routes from Sao Luis, at Itaqui, were similar. The Sao Luis-Querencia route reached R260/t, from R336/t in the same period in 2023. The Sao Luis-Porto Nacional stretch stood at R202/t, from R249/t last year.

This scenario concerns market participants, as it could create a logistical bottleneck. Soybeans will need to be shipped for exports eventually. In parallel, fertilizers arriving in Brazilian ports will have to be delivered to the domestic market.

That could lead to increased competition for trucks and a significant increase in freight rates, as well as longer queues at ports for loading and unloading ships, raising the logistics costs.

By João Petrini

Grain freight rates - Rondonopolis-Paranagua R/t

Fertilizer freight rate - Sao Luis-Porto Nacional R/t

Fertilizer freight rate - Paranagua-Rondonopolis R/t

Grain freight rates - Sinop-Miritituba R/t

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25/07/11

USDA boosts soy view on biofuel policy changes

St Louis, 11 July (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) today raised its projected US soybean crush for the 2025-26 marketing year following recent policy changes that are expected to increase domestic soybean oil demand for biofuel production. US soybean crush is expected to rise to a record 69.1mn metric tonnes (t) in the 2025-26 marketing year, the USDA said Friday in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report, up by 1.36mn t from the June report. The latest forecast marks a 5pc increase from volume projected for the 2024-25 marketing year. The higher outlook for soybean crush was driven by a substantial increase in anticipated soybean oil use for biofuel production, which the USDA places at 7.03mn t for the marketing year ahead, up by 27pc from the volume expected for the current marketing year. The increased biofuel use outlook follows US policy changes that significantly strengthen support for biofuels made from domestically produced feedstocks through changes to the 45Z biofuels tax credit and Renewable Identification Number credits generated through the Renewable Fuel Standard. The US is also proposing to require record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. With the increase in soybean crush, USDA expects domestic soybean oil production will rise to a record 13.6mn t in 2025-26, up by 4.1pc from the current marketing year. Additionally, the USDA revised higher its expectation for soybean oil imports in 2025-26 to 200,000t, up by 13pc from the current marketing year. Following an elevated export rate over the first half of the current marketing year, US soybean oil exports are projected to collapse in 2025-26, down by 73pc from the current marketing year to 318,000t. The reduction in exports, in combination with increased supply, is projected to exceed the gains in biofuel demand, increasing stocks to 758,000t by the end of the 2025-26 marketing year, up by 15pc from the inventory level projected for the end of 2024-25. Soybean meal supplies swell The jump in soybean oil demand is as also expected to result in a record level of US soybean meal production in 2025-26, up 4.5pc from 2024-25 to 54.3mn t, according to USDA. Both domestic use and exports of soybean meal are projected higher for the next marketing year following the increased supply outlook. US soybean meal exports are projected to reach 17mn t, up 7.5pc from 2024-25, while US soybean meal domestic use is projected to rise by 2.8pc to 37.9mn t. Soybean mean stocks are projected to increase as well, reaching 431,000t by the end of 2025-26, up 5.6pc from the level projected for the end of the 2024-25 marketing year. By Ryan Koory July 2025 USDA projections 2025-26 Chg from Jun 2024-25 Chg from Prior MY U.S. soybean oil supply and use ( mn t ) Supply -Beginning stocks 0.66 - 0.70 - -Production 13.59 0.27 13.06 - --Extraction ratio (pc) 19.67 0.00 19.83 - -Imports 0.20 0.07 0.18 -0.05 Total supply 14.46 0.34 13.95 -0.05 Use -Domestic disappearance 13.38 0.73 12.11 -0.14 --Biofuel 7.03 0.73 5.56 -0.39 --Food, feed and other Industrial 6.35 - 6.55 0.25 -Exports 0.32 -0.45 1.18 0.09 Total use 13.70 0.27 13.29 -0.05 -Ending stocks 0.76 0.06 0.66 - -Stocks-to-use (pc) 5.53 0.36 4.95 0.02 U.S. soybean meal supply and use ( mn t ) Supply -Beginning stocks 0.41 - 0.41 - -Production 54.30 1.04 51.98 - --Extraction ratio (pc) 78.54 -0.04 78.92 - -Imports 0.59 - 0.66 0.09 Total supply 55.29 1.04 53.05 0.09 Use -Domestic disappearance 37.90 0.41 36.85 0.09 -Exports 16.96 0.64 15.79 - Total use 54.86 1.04 52.64 0.09 -Ending stocks 0.43 - 0.41 - -Stocks-to-use (pc) 0.79 -0.02 0.78 -0.00 October-September markeing year — USDA, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump Brazil tariff threat concerns US beef importers

25/07/11

Trump Brazil tariff threat concerns US beef importers

Sao Paulo, 11 July (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's threat to apply a 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports was not welcomed by US beef importers, Brazilian beef exports association ABIEC's president Roberto Perosa said. Perosa said while meeting with around 50 US companies that import beef from Brazil this week he discussed the possible economic effects from the threatened tariffs , which could raise prices that he said used to be beneficial for American consumers. "It's a damaging decision with no technical basis in [the companies'] perspective," he said. Brazil beef imports into the US in April were nearly five times higher than imports from a year earlier, but they dropped in May and June due to other US tariffs . The US has been the second-largest buyer of Brazilian beef since 2022, with almost 230,000 metric tonnes (t) imported last year. The US accounted for 8pc of Brazil's beef exports in 2024, only behind China with 46pc, according to Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Brazil, the world's largest meat exporter, shipped a record 2.9mn t of beef in 2024, a 26pc increase from a year before, according to ABIEC. Open gates The World Organisation for Animal Heath (WOAH)'s May decision to declare Brazil free from the highly contagious foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affecting livestock without vaccinations may allow access to new markets and boost exports , according to the government. Brazil has opened its beef market to 19 countries so far, according to ministry of agriculture and cattle raising's trading and international affairs secretary Luis Rua. The last countries to open their markets to Brazilian beef were El Salvador and the Bahamas, according to the ministry. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

25/07/11

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

Calgary, 11 July (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney reiterated his plan to diversify trade with countries "throughout the world" following another round of tariff threats, and another deadline, from US president Donald Trump. Carney's comments on social media late on 10 July came hours after Trump said Canada could expect a 35pc tariff on all imports , effective 1 August, repeating earlier claims that the northern country was not doing enough to stop fentanyl from crossing into the US. Canada has said these claims are bogus but in late-2024 still committed to spending $900bn (C$1.3bn) on border security measures over six years. "Canada has made vital progress to stop the source of fentanyl in North America," Carney wrote on X. The prime minister said he is now working to strike a new trade deal before the 1 August deadline. Trump and Carney last month agreed they would work toward a broad trade agreement by mid-July, with Canada at the time targeting 21 July to finalize a deal. The 35pc tariff would be separate from tariffs set for specific sectors, which include a 50pc tariff on copper imports. It is not clear if any imports currently covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) would be affected by Trump's latest tariff threats. Carney has advocated the need to shore up trade partnerships with "reliable" countries since being sworn is as prime minister in March, saying the old relationship with the US "is over". The energy-rich nation needs to build more infrastructure to unlock this potential, and with a surge in public support, is trying to entice developers with a new law to fast-track project approvals . But those are multi-year efforts and Canada is still trying to reach a deal with the US to keep goods moving smoothly. The two economies are highly integrated with $762bn worth of goods crossing the US-Canada border in 2024, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. Canada on 29 June rescinded a digital sales tax (DST) that would have collected revenue from the US' largest tech companies, after US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick said the tax could have been a deal breaker in trade negotiations. That show of good faith — which seemingly got nothing in return — was criticized within Canada and contrary to Carney's repeated "elbows up" mantra in the face of Trump's threats. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US biofuel support clears way for new crush capacity

25/07/10

US biofuel support clears way for new crush capacity

New York, 10 July (Argus) — North American oilseed crushers told Argus that projects to increase processing capacity are on track for the next year, potentially enabling more renewable fuel production. After a difficult start to the year for biofuel producers, US policymakers are increasingly making clear that they want refiners to up their output in future years and rely more on domestic feedstocks like soybean oil. That could pave the way for more oilseed crush capacity to come online, after some facilities delayed or cancelled plans over the last year on stagnant demand. Companies confirmed to Argus that more than 620,000 bu/d of new soybean and canola crush capacity were on track to come online in North America in the next year, and other facilities that did not respond to requests for comment have plans in the coming years too. Greater vegetable oil supply also could at least partly address concerns from oil and biofuel refiners that Republicans' protectionist approach to biofuels threatens feedstock shortages and price spikes. A multi-seed crush facility under construction in Mitchell, South Dakota — which will be able to process up to 96,000 bu/d of soybeans — is scheduled to start up this October, South Dakota Soybean Processors chief executive Tom Kersting told Argus. US crush company Ag Processing similarly said that a new 137,000 bu/d soybean crush plant in David City, Nebraska, will open "later this year". In Canada, Cargill confirmed that a 121,000 bu/d canola processing plant in Regina, Saskatchewan is also on track to open this year. In the first half of next year, French agribusiness Louis Dreyfus said it plans to complete two major projects in North America. The company plans to open a 151,000 bu/d soybean crush plant in Upper Sandusky, Ohio, and to double capacity to more than 240,000 bu/d at a canola crush facility in Yorkton, Saskatchewan. US soybean oil futures have climbed by 12pc in the past month on recent policy shifts, providing more incentive for processors — already crushing more soybeans than ever before — to expand production. The US recently proposed record-high biofuel blend mandates for the next two years, projecting that domestic soybean oil production could increase by 250mn USG/yr. And President Donald Trump over the weekend signed legislation that retools a crucial US tax credit to increase subsidies for crop-based fuels. Canadian canola processors, which depend on US incentives because Canada's biofuel sector is far smaller, benefit less from some of these policy shifts. While US fuels made from Canadian feedstocks can still claim the tax incentive next year, the Trump administration has proposed halving credits generated under the biofuel blend mandate for fuels made from foreign feedstocks. That makes US soybean oil a far more attractive input for US refiners than Canadian canola oil. A Canadian farm cooperative earlier this year paused plans for a combined canola crush and renewable diesel plant in Regina, Saskatchewan, citing "regulatory and political uncertainty". And Bunge was vague about its plans for building the world's largest canola crush plant in the same city, which was initially envisioned to start up last year. The US-based agribusiness, which recently took over the project with its acquisition of Viterra, told Argus it was "focused on integration to ensure a smooth transition for our customers" and "may be able to provide an update in the near future". Even then, canola oil stands to benefit from increased demand from food companies if more US soybean oil is diverted to fuel markets. And despite recent struggles for other Canadian biorefineries, ExxonMobil subsidiary Imperial Oil has plans to soon open a 20,000 b/d renewable diesel plant in Alberta that will draw on canola oil. Canadian policymakers have taken steps to assuage local feedstock suppliers and refiners, including a domestic renewable fuel mandate in British Columbia and a proposed mandate in Ontario. Biofuel production and oilseed crush margins also will depend on interactions with other policies, including a temporary tax break through 2026 in the US for small biodiesel producers — historically more reliant on vegetable oils than more versatile renewable diesel plants — as well as low-carbon fuel standards in the US west coast region and Canada. The perennial risk for any company is that policy, especially around biofuels, often swings unexpectedly. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

25/07/10

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

Rio de Janeiro, 10 July (Argus) — Brazil will consider reciprocal tariffs if US president Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat of a 50pc charge on imports from Brazil, president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," Lula posted on social media late on Wednesday. He defended Brazil's sovereignty and said the country "will not accept any form of tutelage". He rebutted Trump's claim that the US has a "very unfair trade relationship with Brazil", pointing to its long-running trade surplus. Brazil has run a trade deficit for goods and services with the US adding up to over $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview. "This is an eminently political decision, because there is no economic rationale in this measure," he said. The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade. It is the main market for Brazilian manufactured goods. The national confederation of industries (CNI), a lobby group, called for negotiations with the Trump government "to preserve the countries' historical trade relationship". A group representing the powerful agribusiness lobby in congress, FPA, also called for diplomatic negotiations. The tariffs can "severely hamper production, investments and supply chains between the two countries," US-Brazilian chamber of commerce Amcham said. The tariffs bring uncertainty to the country's oil and gas sector, Brazil's oil chamber IBP said. Crude is Brazil's main export to the US, accounting for $5.8bn last year. "We are cautiously assessing the true impacts on investments and competitiveness on our industry," IBP said. The Brazilian real slumped against the US dollar in the wake of Trump's announcement, dropping to R5.6/$1 on Thursday morning before rallying slightly. A weaker real increases production costs for Brazilian companies who rely on imports. A letter that Trump sent on Wednesday to Lula is one of the 22 that the US leader has sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will charge on imports from those countries. "I don't think that this situation will continue," Haddad said of the "unsustainable" 50pc levy, highlighting Brazil's diplomatic tradition. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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