Brazil RNG supply still seeks demand
The mismatch between growing Brazil biomethane supply and consumers willing to pay its higher prices still looms over projects expected to go on line in the next few months.
There are three projects pending final approval from hydrocarbons regulator ANP to begin operating: Adecoagro's 14,400 m³/d plant in Mato Grosso do Sul, H2A Soluções Ambientais's approximately 4,300 m³/d plant in Goias and Raizen-Geo Biogas' 130,400 m³/d plant in São Paulo. The regulator has no timetable for final approvals.
Another 10 biomethane plants, adding up to more than 502,400 m³/d, are scheduled to finish construction this year.
Still, most of the upcoming projects lack customers for the additional supply, according to market sources. Finding buyers for this more-expensive natural gas substitute can be difficult, as relatively few companieshave specific budgets for decarbonization.
Brazil has six plants with ANP authorization to produce and sell about 417,100 m³/d of biomethane. Another 139,000 m³/d of capacity is scheduled to become operational in 2025, bringing total certified biomethane supply to at least 1.2mn m³/d in the next two years.
First movers in the biomethane consumer market have been paying a premium to the parity price against natural gas. This premium represents the value of the lower carbon levels in biomethane, which does not always carry tradable certification.
Brazil's lack of a market for biomethane guarantees of origin, such as biomethane renewable energy certificates (Gas-RECs), is also inhibited by doubts about the main emissions reporting platform, the GHG Protocol. In 2015, the GHG Protocol allowed the use of biomethane certificates to offset emissions, only to remove them from their documents in 2020, citing the need for more studies.
Countries that created regulatory mechanisms before the GHG Protocol changed course have a competitive advantage over Brazil, according to Fernando Giachini Lopes, director of Instituto Totum, which certifies biomethane renewable energy certificates (Gas-RECs) and I-RECs in Brazil.
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Floods stress Brazil energy sector vulnerability
Floods stress Brazil energy sector vulnerability
New York, 10 May (Argus) — Record flooding in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state over the past week underscores vulnerabilities in the country's energy system to extreme weather, which could also slow its pace of transition to cleaner energies. Nearly one week after record rainfall began flooding the state, power outages continue to plague it, with nearly 400,000 residents still in the dark. The flooding forced companies to suspend operations of critical infrastructure for the power sector, including three substations, 25 transmission lines, six hydroelectric plants and 11 power transformers. This led grid operator ONS to import power from Uruguay to meet domestic demand. With forecasts pointing to more rain, it is increasingly clear that it will take weeks if not months for the state to start returning to normal. The Rio Grande do Sul government estimates that the floods will cost the stateR19bn ($3.6bn?) . The tragedy in southern Brazil comes less than a year after a record drought struck the Amazon basin, which pushed water levels of the Amazon River and its tributaries to their lowest in 120 years. The drought reduced hydroelectric output from the region's plants and interrupted transport of fuel along key river corridors, leaving many households without power, because of the lack of diesel to operate generators used in off-grid communities. These crises highlight the country's failure to prepare for extreme weather and underscore the lack of investment in critical infrastructure, including in the energy sector. A study by the World Bank from 2023 warned of the need to upgrade the country's aging infrastructure and of future power supply risks. Brazil's large hydroelectric plants have been operating for an average of 55 years, according to the study, and need investments to boost efficiency and to limit the impact of extreme weather. A total of 11 hydroelectric plants in Rio Grande do Sul are being monitored, including six that present an elevated risk of rupture, such as the 28MW 14 de Julho plant that experienced a partial rupture last week because of the heavy rains. Authorities will now need to change their focus, which has been largely on limiting the impact of dry weather on the electricity sector, especially following the 2021 droughts, that resulted in expansion of thermoelectric generation. More recently, electricity regulator Aneel has been focusing on making power distribution and transmission networks more resilient to extreme weather, especially after downed power lines resulted in extended blackouts for some 4mn consumers in the city of Sao Paulo and over 1.3mn consumers in Rio de Janeiro. The sector is working to make transmission towers more resilient to high winds. Several cities and states in Brazil have launched plans to prepare for climate change, but the bulk of these plans focus on increasing investments in renewable energy and emissions reduction. Increasingly, these plans will also need to focus on mitigating risk from floods, heat waves and landslides. Brazilian energy companies are also behind the curve in their preparations for climate change. Only 13pc of executives in the energy sector that participated in a recent survey conducted by consulting firm PwC Brasil said they have assessed the impact of climate change on their financial planning. State of climate Brazil faced 12 extreme climate events in 2023, according to the World Meteorological Association (WMO). This included a tropical cyclone that hit Rio Grande do Sul last year and affected more than 340,000 people and left nearly 50 dead. The WMO blamed the extreme climate events in Brazil on the "double-whammy of El Niño and longer-term climate change." Last year, eight Brazilian states recorded their lowest July-to-September rainfall in over 40 years, it said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s J-Power steps up coal-fired power phase-out
Japan’s J-Power steps up coal-fired power phase-out
Osaka, 10 May (Argus) — Japanese power producer and wholesaler J-Power is stepping up efforts to halt operations of inefficient coal-fired power plants, while pushing ahead with decarbonisation of its existing plants by using clean fuels and technology. J-Power plans to scrap the 500MW Matsushima No.1 coal-fired unit by the end of March 2025 and the 250MW Takasago No.1 and No.2 coal-fired units by 2030, according to its 2024-26 business strategy announced on 9 May. It also aims to decommission or mothball the 700MW Takehara No.3 and the 1,000MW Matsuura No.1 coal-fired units in 2030. The combined capacity of the selected five coal-fired units accounts for 32pc of J-Power's total thermal capacity of 8,412MW, all fuelled by coal. While phasing out its ageing coal-fired capacity, J-Power is looking to co-fire with fuel ammonia at the 2,100MW Tachibanawan coal-fired plant sometime after 2030 and ensure it runs on 100pc ammonia subsequently. The company plans to increase the mixture of biomass at the 600MW Takehara No.1 unit, along with the installation of a carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology after 2030. The CCS technology will be also applied to the 1,000MW Matsuura No.2 unit, which is expected to co-fire ammonia, after 2030. J-Power plans to use hydrogen at the 1,200MW Isogo plant sometime after 2035. The company is also set to deploy integrated coal gasification combined-cycle and CCS technology at the 500MW Matsushima No.2 unit and the 150MW Ishikawa No.1 and No.2 units after 2035. The company aims to cut carbon dioxide emissions from its domestic power generation by 46pc by the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year against 2013-14 levels before achieving a net zero emissions goal by 2050. This is in line with Tokyo's emissions reduction target. The company aims to expand domestic annual renewable output by 4TWh by 2030-31 compared with 2022-23, along with decarbonising thermal capacity. Its renewable generation totalled 10.4TWh in 2023-24. Tokyo has pledged to phase out existing inefficient coal-fired capacity by 2030, which could target units with less than 42pc efficiency. The country's large-scale power producers have reduced annual power output from their inefficient coal-fired fleet by 13TWh to 103TWh in 2022-23 against 2019-20, according to a document unveiled by the trade and industry ministry on 8 May. It expects such power generation will fall further by more than 60TWh to 39.700TWh in 2030-31. Global pressure against coal-fired power generation has been growing. Energy ministers from G7 countries in late April pledged to phase out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net zero pathways". By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s ANZ bank to end new gas, oil lending
Australia’s ANZ bank to end new gas, oil lending
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia-based bank ANZ has updated its oil and gas policy, with it to no longer provide direct financing to new or expanding upstream oil and gas projects. The bank declared its new policy as part of its 2024 half-year results released on 7 May, saying it would also decline to integrate new customers primarily focused on upstream oil and gas. ANZ said that while it believes gas plays a "material and important part in meeting Australia's current energy needs and will do so for the foreseeable future", it will instead collaborate with energy customers to help finance their transition away from fossil fuels. The bank has a 26pc greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2030 goal and committed in 2020 to exit all lending to companies with exposure to thermal coal, either through extraction or power generation by 2030 as part of lending criteria to support the 2015 UN Paris climate agreement target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050. ANZ has however promised to consider exceptions on a case-by-case basis, if any national energy security issues arise. Australia's banks have been under sustained pressure by environmental groups to exit lending to fossil fuel projects, as upstream gas firms also face shareholder rebellions over climate action plans. But Australia's federal government has conceded gas will likely be needed post-2050 as a firming power source for renewables and industrial feedstock for some sectors. But investment in upstream exploration has been extremely low in recent years, with imports of LNG likely in southern Australia from about 2026 to meet demand for industrial users and power generation. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia's federal government will attempt to reverse the decline in new gas developments by expediting projects, although a report has found it is unlikely to reverse an anticipated shortfall in southern states' supplies later this decade. Canberra's long-awaited Future Gas Strategy will form its future policy on the resource, following two years of uncertainty for the industrial sector. This follows the Labor party-led government's election in May 2022 and its dumping of the previous Liberal-National coalition administration's gas-fed recovery from Covid-19 policy, which emphasised bringing new supplies on line to drive down rising prices. Six principles have been outlined by the government — driving down emissions reductions to reach net zero emissions by 2050, making gas affordable for users during the transition, bringing new supplies on line, supporting a shift to "higher-value and non-substitutable gas uses", ensuring gas and power markets remain fit for purpose during the energy transition and maintaining Australia's status as a reliable trading partner for energy, including LNG. The report found that gas-fired power generation will likely provide grid firming as renewables replace older coal-fired plants. Peak daily gas demand could rise by a factor of two to three by 2043, according to projections, with gas-powered peaking generation labelled a "core component of the National Electricity Market to 2050 and beyond". But by the 2040s more alternatives to gas for peaking and firming are expected to become available. Supplies are forecast to dip significantly in the latter years of the decade, especially in gas-dependent southeast Australia, driven by the 86pc depletion of the region's producing fields. This reduced supplies will outpace a fall in demand , while rising demand is forecast because of the retirement of Western Australia's coal-fired power plants . The report found the causes of Australia's low exploration investment are "multifaceted", blaming the Covid-19 pandemic, difficulties with approvals processes , legal challenges, market interventions and a perceived decline in social licence. It added that international companies may focus on lower cost and lower risk fields in other countries. New sources Stricter enforcement of petroleum retention leases and domestic gas reservation policies are also likely to increase supplies, the report found, with term swap arrangements beneficial in increasing their certainty. Upwards pressure in transport costs is likely to result from increased piping of Queensland coal-bed methane gas to southern markets such as Victoria state, which could influence industrial users to relocate closer to gas fields in the future. Options canvassed to meet demand include more pipelines and processing plants and LNG import terminals , which would provide the fastest option but must overcome regulatory and commercial pressures, given the pricing of LNG would be higher than current domestic prices. Longer term supplies depend on the commerciality from unsanctioned projects such as Narrabri and in the Beetaloo and Surat basins, the report said. More supplies are needed to support exports under foundational LNG contracts, with an impact on the domestic market if Surat basin developments such as Atlas does not continue, the report said. Forecasts show LNG exporters have sufficient production from existing and committed facilities to meet forecast exports until 2027 if expected investments proceed. But beyond this new investment is required, especially for the 8.5mn t/yr Shell-operated Queensland-Curtis LNG at Gladstone. The Australian Energy Producers lobby, which represents upstream oil and gas businesses, said the strategy should now provide clear direction on national energy policy. But the Greens party, the main federal parliamentary group aside from Labor and the Liberal-National coalition, said any plans to continue gas extraction beyond 2050 will negate state and federal net zero 2050 climate targets. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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