Oversupply and fragmentation challenge steel market

Participants in the Turkish and European long steel markets at a major industry event this week anticipated a difficult remainder of 2024, expecting demand to be generally supplied by local capacities.

With the Chinese Metallurgical Industry Institute forecasting a 1.7pc drop in Chinese steel demand in 2024 and the country's steel output expected to remain stable, Chinese exports are likely to continue putting pressure on global rebar prices. China's overall steel exports this year so far are on course to exceed the 91.2mn t shipped in 2023. Traders were concerned over the Chinese real estate sector, which, along with infrastructure construction, drives the bulk of Chinese steel demand but has been plagued by a mismatch between housing demand and supply in recent years.

Markets outside of China are also likely to be well-supplied for the rest of the year or longer, with a weak construction outlook in Europe and with steel capacity on an upward trend in India and southeast Asia. Government investment in construction projects is likely to drive Indian steel demand to at least 190mn t by 2030, said Somanath Tripathy of the Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL). But in the near term Indian demand growth has been sluggish while output has increased, with steelmakers Tata and JSW both reaching record steel output in the financial year of 2023-2024.

Meanwhile, participants had weak expectations for the European and Turkish rebar markets for the rest of the year. Expectations of a recovery in the European steel sector have largely been pinned on the likelihood the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates at some point in the second half of the year. But a German trader noted while this move would lend some support, high interest rates are far from being the only challenge for the sector. The EU construction sector faces increasingly high costs, partly caused by sustainability requirements, participants noted, slowing investment and weighing on property demand by pushing up prices.

The combination of high interest rates and inflation in Turkey, as well as dwindling export options, means several Turkish steel mills are currently running at near 50pc of capacity. Turkish rebar exporters face stiff competition in most export markets from Chinese suppliers, whose fob prices are currently around $70/t lower than Turkey, as well as from north African producers. The challenge for Turkish exporters is structural, with the business model of importing scrap and exporting steel no longer as viable due to higher scrap demand from other regions as well as the significantly lower energy costs of north African and Middle Eastern producers. Some market participants noted in this context, the introduction of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could favour Turkish EAF mills in the long run, who are no longer competitive in terms of price in most markets, but whose use of scrap versus direct reduced iron (DRI) makes their production less carbon-intensive than other EAF-based producers in the region. Turkish producers are working to make sure they will be compatible with EU environmental requirements, a Turkish mill source said. But government support for these efforts has been lacking, he added.

Overall, protectionist measures have significantly harmed Turkey's export options, as has the outbreak of conflicts and tensions in the region over the past two years. Some Turkish mills have lost up to half of their regular export sales as a result of the halt of exports to Israel and a slowdown in sales to Yemen as a result of the conflict in Gaza and Houthi vessel attacks. Until European prices pick up significantly and north Africa is selling at capacity, Turkish long steel exports will not be competitive in the near future, a trader noted.

By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton