German diesel demand to fall a third by 2040:ExxonMobil
London, 17 April (Argus) — German diesel demand will decline by a third by 2040, according to ExxonMobil.
In its Energy Outlook 2018-40, ExxonMobil said the number of diesel passenger cars in Germany will fall by 20pc by 2040, from 15mn in late 2017. This will be partly offset by a 25pc increase in road freight traffic, driven by annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth pegged at 1.6pc up to 2020, and at 1pc until 2040.
New diesel car registrations in Germany have decreased recently as the country debates the future of diesel, but ExxonMobil said diesel engines will continue to play an important part in Germany's fleet mix.
The number of gasoline passenger cars will decline by more than 50pc, from 30mn in late 2017, ExxonMobil said.
Overall, the company sees the number of passenger cars on German roads stable at around 46mn until 2040, when two-thirds of all passenger cars will be gasoline- or diesel-fuelled. From 2030 more LPG, natural gas, hybrid and electric cars will be on the road and will, in total, amount to one third of the German fleet by 2040.
Diesel vehicles have a lower specific consumption when longer distances are driven and overall tend to emit less CO2 compared with gasoline engines because they are more fuel-efficient. At the moment, diesel cars are more expensive to buy for consumers and are taxed higher than gasoline cars, but diesel is cheaper than gasoline at the pump. A typical diesel car is more economical than a gasoline car if more than 15,000km are driven each year. In urban areas and on short distances gasoline cars will increasingly be replaced by electric cars, Exxon said.
ExxonMobil estimates demand for heating oil will decrease by around 45pc by 2040, with the change supported by energy-saving boiler technologies and improved efficiency through home insulation. More than two-thirds of German households' current heating energy demand is met by natural gas (47pc) and heating oil (23pc). In 2040 this will be just under 50pc. Then, renewable energies llike biomass and solar thermal energy will contribute more than one third of heating demand, Exxon estimates. Improved energy efficiency will ensure demand for heating energy will decline by one fifth by 2040.
Overall oil and natural gas will still make up 60pc of the energy mix in Germany by the end of the period.
ExxonMobil is active in Germany and markets fuels and lubricants to business-to-business segments and consumers through a network of around 1,000 Esso service stations.