Spanish LNG take revised lower
London, 29 July (Argus) — Planned Spanish LNG receipts continue to be revised lower amid further uncertainty over summer demand levels.
July's take is on pace to have totalled 3.97mn m³, down by 235,900m³ from the month-opening plan, and 524,000m³ less than had been pencilled into a more tentative month-ahead plan.
August's schedule has also been revised lower, with deliveries now expected to be 192,000m³ smaller at 4.13mn m³.
That said, third-quarter deliveries could yet be stronger than a year earlier. While July's take seems to have been around 282,600m³ lower than last year and 198,900m³ less than in 2008, the revised August schedule is still 278,300m³ larger than last year and 529,200m³ more than was delivered in 2008.
A preliminary schedule for September suggests that deliveries that month could be 591,000m³ larger on the year at 4.31mn m³.
The changeability in Spain's LNG planning comes amid further differences between shippers and the system operator over the likely level of summer gas demand. Since the start of the summer, shippers have fairly consistently assumed stronger conventional demand and weaker power-sector demand than has the system operator. By and large, shippers' estimates of conventional demand have proven to be closer to actual consumption, which unseasonably cool weather has lifted well above the system operator's forecasts since April. For generation, the picture has been more mixed — demand was stronger than shippers anticipated in April, May and July, and closer to the system operator's median demand forecast. And at least part of the unexpected rise in power-sector gas demand appears to have been linked to the intermittency of renewable output. Although still considerably stronger than a year earlier, Spanish hydroelectric generation fell sharply month on month in April, May and July, while wind generation fell by nearly two-fifths in April and has been quite changeable thereafter.
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