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William Rowe Founder and CEO of Octopus Hydrogen joins Tim Hard, SVP Energy Transition at Argus, to discuss distributed vs centralised hydrogen production models, moving projects from excel to production and an ‘easy-to-abate’ sector – city construction sites.
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Transcript:
Tim: Hello, and welcome to the "Argus Hydrogen and Future Fuels" podcast. Welcome back. It's been a little while since our last one. We were putting out our hydrogen costs in the meantime, but we'll be back to a normal recording schedule from now on. Today, I'm joined by William Rowe. He is the founder and CEO of Octopus Hydrogen. So William, hello, and welcome. I wondered if you could give us a little backdrop to Octopus, and then what Octopus is doing in hydrogen?
William: We started about 18 months ago, with the vision to bring about green hydrogen as service. And I suppose that's a nice catchy phrase. But what does it really mean? So when we looked at the market, it was very apparent it was that in order to have green hydrogen available for different applications, we needed to take some responsibility for different elements of that production and supply process. And so effectively, what we do is we wrap up buying power, turning it into molecules, through electrolysis, and then delivering that to customers where they need it. So that's really the crux of why we started the business.
Tim: Understood. So the hydrogen as a service, I suppose is making. It's giving you a defined type of hydrogen, and then making sure it's actually delivered all the way to the customer.
William: Exactly that. And I suppose just taking a quick step back on it, the reason why we saw an opportunity in the hydrogen space was, you know, we're firm believers in ever increasing amounts of renewable generation sources on the electricity grid. So whether that be wind or solar, or even low carbon technologies, such as nuclear, but let's say we see more and more wind and solar coming online. And because of that, balance in supply and demand demands, it's not gonna be a trivial task.
So you know, in the traditional sort of electricity grids, you know, when you've got more demand, you burn more of the feedstock can produce more power, and typically managing supply and demand was a sort of generation side problem. Whereas in the world of renewables, you know, we can't control when the wind is blowing, and when the sun shining. And so it's controllable demand. And things like control over electric vehicle charging control of heat pumps, you know, control of some of the industrial applications will make sense, but we didn't think those things on their own would be enough.
And so actually controlling the production of molecules in the form of green hydrogen makes complete sense. If we can do that dynamically to be supportive of the grid, rather than sort of being a drain on the grid, we end up with a really useful sort of symbiotic system.
Tim: So I suppose a lot of the projects that are talked about and making waves, the more rather not all, but there's a huge amount of large projects coming on. Are you guys trying to follow the same type of what would you say centralized production and distribution, or does your model differ?
William: Yeah, it's a really good question, Tim. And I think we definitely see merits in those large projects. I mean, more than merits, we think a lot of them make a lot of sense, but we focus on saying more like 10 to 20 megawatt projects at this point. And there's a couple of reasons why we do that. So first is really just about actually getting shovels in the ground now. So the problem with the large projects, say 100 megawatt plus is typically they are further down the track. So you know, whether they be '25, go live 2026, go live that kind of timeframe is most of the ones we've seen are kind of that kind of time horizon, because we wanted to be producing gas sooner than that.
So it was kind of just a basic pragmatism required in terms of what sort of scale project can you get over the line quickly. Coupled to that is most of the electrolyzer manufacturers kind of offer products. And by products, I mean, you know, power in, water in, gas out without having to do bespoke design or the balance of plans, or the water purification or all that sort of stuff. And they typically offer that in the kind of 5 to 20 megawatt range. So as you go beyond that kind of scale, you effectively start walking into a lot more burden on the EPC side of things and a lot less kind of on the manufacturer side. And so we're quite happy at the moment to kind of double down on where the manufacturers are kind of shaving costs and building certified products that kind of made sense for us.
And then the final reason is, if you look at new builds renewables, especially in places like the UK, there's not really enough renewables being built that are not offshore that can accommodate hundreds of megawatts of electrolysis on a sort of private wire basis. So it kind of makes sense to focus on the sort of, you know, what size of renewables are being built? What size of products can we buy? And what can we actually do in the next couple of years? That's kind of why we focused on those side of things. So our strategy is to have a network of 10 to 20 megawatt sites across the UK over the next 2 or 3, 4 years. And then as those bigger projects become more viable products kind of start to match that then we'll look at those bigger projects, you know, as and when the market kind of gets to that point.
Tim: Yep. So that's, what would you say? That's more of a sort of distributed style of production, and then trying to be relatively close to consumers. So presumably...
William: Yeah, exactly that. Tim.
Tim: Compressed gas as delivery rather than pipelines or liquefaction or ammonia, this is we're talking straight. I don't know what 30 biohydrogen.
William: Yeah, more like 35 mega Pascal, but more like 70 mega Pascal typically. But yeah, that kind of range to 350 to 700 bar hydrogen. Yeah.
Tim: Yeah, that's sort of tube trailers in that kind of delivery.
William: Exactly. So, don't get me wrong, pipelines are great for transporting molecules a long way on it with a very known pattern. But you know, there's not a lot of dedicated hydrogen pipelines built. I think there's some in Houston and a few other places. But typically, there's not an awful lot of those built for us right now, that kind of road-based transportation makes the most sense.
Tim: Yeah. And then I suppose just focusing and zeroing in on the customer a little bit, you're specifically producing electrolytic hydrogen, green hydrogen, are you seeing a demand for that over other types of hydrogen?
William: Yeah. So I mean, we wish to far feet in terms of inbounds around wanting zero carbon hydrogen. So there's an awful lot of demand around it. Now, admittedly, most people want it at a price point, this is the same as where grey hydrogen has always been at large volumes. So you know, they read the press, and they go, "Oh, brilliant, you know, hydrogen at $2 a kilo. We'll have lots of it at that price point." But once you kind of take away their kind of, let's say, very optimistic future looking kind of potential demand and start focusing on where the reality is, yeah, there's a lot of demand for low carbon, hydrogen or green hydrogen.
And to be honest, the reason is because you've got ever increasing targets externally going on to businesses. So if you've got some very progressive businesses that have net zero strategies, but you also just have straight sort of product production targets, or the sort of things forcing businesses to need to look at this. So wherever there's kind of scope, 1, 2, or 3 emissions that they need to tackle, you know, people are looking at electrification and hydrogen very seriously.
Tim: There's a huge amount of interest that we always have on, you know, capacity and build out. And on prior podcast, we've talked about production technologies, we've talked about the fuel displacements and things like that. So this is the first time we've had a green hydrogen producer and developer on. So I'm very interested, as most people are about the demand side of things. Can you shed any light on that?
William: Yeah. So it's a really good question, Tim. I think for us, because at the moment, we're focusing on reducing hydrogen, you kind of tons per day per site, but not tens of, or hundreds of tons per day per site, and spread across sort of like a regional coverage of sites, there's a few obvious markets that we can cater to do so better than others. So there's, you know, if you're looking at producing green hydrogen, for refineries, which I know is some people's business models or ammonia producers, clearly, you're looking at very large sites where you kind of either blending or displacing against that grey hydrogen, and you don't really need to worry about additional offtakers, because you've got a very comfortable kind of offtaker on site. And so it's really around, can you get enough power to the site? And can you get the large projects over the line, you know, whereas our model is much more to have this kind of regional spread.
So because of that, there's certain sectors we can cater to particularly uniquely, let us say, so things like the construction sector. So if you think of your typical construction project, you know, you're building a new bit of motorway or freeway, you know, from A to B, by definition, it's unlikely that there's gonna be power conveniently located along the route of that new motorway being built. And it's probably not the need to have a large grid connection available on an interim basis along that so you see what you find is there's customers that are, say, have to build a project. And they need to do in a lower carbon way. And electrification isn't really a viable option for them. And those projects are gonna be time boxed in their nature, whether they'd be sort of one to five years, and they're gonna be all across different geographies.
So because of that, hydrogen plays a really unique role and our way of producing hydrogen kind of cases that really well, because we can deliver hydrogen from the production site A to that project very easily. We have a regional model, it's not like, you know, we could only serve as projects in a very specific locality near our production sites, we can serve different areas, because we have that regional coverage. Now, obviously, matching supply and demand is challenging. But on a macro level, you know, the regional approach really caters well, to those kinds of construction-based projects.
Tim: Yeah, it makes a lot of sense, because you've got these areas, which are based both remote and lack permanence. And so I can see the attraction there.
William: Yeah, they're really unappealing to build the kind of classic big infrastructure. So it's a match made in heaven for us and one that doesn't work well for your classic infrastructure kind of play.
Tim: Yeah, well, so that's basically a sort of diesel displacement activity. Let's swing back to that. Can you tell us a little bit you've spoken just now you said you're looking at things like say 5 to 20 megawatt production facilities. I think that you have I think it's 100 megawatts targeted for the end of 2024, or something like that. Can you tell us a little bit about the projects that you have in development at the moment?
William: Yes, you're right. Yeah. So our goal at the moment is 100 megawatts live by the end of 2024. So that will typically take the form of 10, 20 megawatt individual projects, and then what we've got in flight right now. So we've got two, one megawatt systems being built today, both in the UK, so ones in Nuneaton, at MIRA Technology Park, so MIRA Technology Park is kind of automotive testing and engineering capability center. So it's one of the sort of premier ones in Europe, and it's a really great place to be involved in as a project. So what we're doing is we're building 7 megawatts of solar at that site actually funded by Octopus Renewable. So it's a nice bring together with sort of our major investors kind of capabilities as well.
So we're building 7 megawatts of solar. And we're building a one megawatt electrolyzer, and then there'll be gas available on site to service the testing of new fuel cell applications. And then they'll also...we will use some of the gas to make available for patients in the local area clear with a one megawatt site, we're only making 200, 300 kilos a day there. So it's not like we're servicing a huge volume of external customers, but it's a good development project for us. And to be fair, I mean, you know, as I said, we're only just about 15 months old. So we kind of we've gone pretty quick getting that live, because that should be live by June. So we kind of move quickly on that.
And the second project is in partnership with ZeroAvia, who's one of the leading aviation fuel cell companies. So looking at producing power trains for aircraft, different scales, the first one they're working on, or the most exciting one is for their Dornier 228. I think that's the aircraft, not an expert on aircraft actually thinking about it. But we're working with them to provide the hydrogen for the R&D and certification of the aircraft, which is great. Again, what's interesting as well, because one of the reasons why we were quite unique there, I suppose, is because if you look at the demand of an aviation customer. During the certification phase of the aircraft, it's very inconsistent, you know, so when you do a flight, you need a couple of 100 kilos of hydrogen. Whereas the next day, when you're not quite, you don't need the hydrogen.
So kind of handling the peaks and the troughs is and having an ability to take the excess gas or the spare gas and use it for someone else is past, you know, critical to getting the economics to work. Because otherwise, you know, they're effectively paying for very expensive ad hoc deliveries of gas, which should be their met specification programs much impossible.
Tim: Ruinous.
William: Yeah, indeed. Yeah.
Tim: So I guess one of the things I can see there is the obvious theme is mobility in that area, and that's in the UK is having a bit of a purple patch in at the moment, we've seen the big scheme in the, I think it was the Midlands, wasn't it? That was doing, I think it was this effort scheme, pushing out a large quantity of Hydrogen buses I think it was 100. I think it's what it is now.
William: 124, I think it is.
Tim: Thank you for saving me. Yeah, that's not small, not a small number. So it feels like mobility is having, you know, as I say, a purple patch. And in fact, the more I think about it, the other areas, it's doing extremely well is on ground logistics. That's been a strong area for a number of years. And you're starting to see it moving out beyond what would you say, facilities was a couple of facilities further out onto the slightly heavier transport as well. So it's all going in the right direction, exactly as most people were predicting. There's a big push at the moment for certification of carbon intensity of hydrogen. Now, I bring up obviously, because you're a green hydrogen specific producer. So yeah, I'm curious as to your take on what's going on till certification?
William: Yeah, clearly, you know, the low carbon hydrogen standard, whatever that number ends up being in terms of the CO2 intensity per kilo, as long as it's rigorously enforced, and is adopted across different geographies in a sensible way. And there's no kind of time-based shifting, you know, so a project can produce lots of CO2 in the short-term, but then get away with it because in the future, it's gonna sequester carbon for example, as long as it's fair, I can see there being some like merit in just a general standard that comes along. However, where I see that being particularly applicable is things like displacing coal and grey hydrogen that say, let's say, typically might take quite a long time, given the required electrolysis, and where you could already do carbon capture and storage on those sites. However, it doesn't seem there's a lot of appetite.
Typically, to do that, it seems like most of those kinds of big refinery in ammonia applications are looking at green and I guess, future-proofing themselves. And instead, the kind of blue hydrogen side is typically pushing on to things like hydrogen for heat and stuff like that, which I personally feel a lot less kind of credibility around those kinds of stories and feel like it's kind of, you know, let's use grey hydrogen or green hydrogen for refineries, and then complete a blue hydrogen to the gas network doesn't strike me as particularly good for consumers or costs. But I suppose for my side on the electrolytic hydrogen, we push for a very rigorous standard around what low carbon is defined as so for me, that means certificates and temporal correlation associated with the power.
And the reason why is because it's not an insurmountable problem to solve that, right. You know, we have the data available, we already settled power, in every geography or every, you know, kind of geography with a degree of separation or competition within that market at different settlement periods, you know, in the UK is half hour and Europe is 15 minutes. So we can easily handle how much power you've bought for a given period of time and how green that power was.
Tim: I started off the podcast apologizing for being so slow in and being between podcasts, because we were busy wrangling costs and putting hydrogen costs together. Now, obviously, from your side, you've got pilots, but small scale projects now moving from Excel to the drawing board. So I've got to ask obviously, you did the modeling beforehand, you must have done. How did the modeling stack up against reality when you got to site?
William: So it depends who you ask, Tim. So if you ask our commercial team, they say I was way off. You ask me I'd say I was basically bang on. So I suppose that was the kind of entrepreneurial bias you get. But I think if I was to give you a slightly more sensible answer. I think, you know, once you get beyond reading the very, very generic high-level long-term forecasts or start reading the kind of more sort of on the ground simple numbers now and then go into projects, lots of things are quite accurate, you know, CapEx costs for electrolysis, CapEx costs for compression. CapEx costs for storage, those things were broadly in line with our expectations, to be honest, and do get materially cheaper as you scale up, which we've seen that, you know, I think kilowatt hours per kilogram, i.e. the efficiency of systems is definitely one that there's a big area for sort of variance, let's say between the kind of theoretical maximums and the realities of what systems are delivering on. That's an interesting one, for sure.
So you know, you'll get ranges from you'll see and the press people saying they can do a 39 kilowatt hours a kilogram, and you know, you'll get ranges with today's technology as high as 60, 62 including the balance of plant so there's a real big delta in that number, and clearly efficiency is really important.
Tim: Three words, which are guaranteed to be heard all the time in this industry is hard-to-abate. And obviously, we work with a lot of hard-to-abate industries, who will be looking at hydrogen in volume. So for example, you know, especially something like let's say, steel or cement, these are your classic hard-to-abate industries, and they're obviously huge volume ones. We don't talk that much about, I don't want to say, easy to abate. I think that's gonna be a problem. But it feels like there's easier to abate industries. And we did have a chat the other day, just about, you know, we're talking about diesel displacement earlier. What about just diesel displacement for construction markets? And those kinds of things, where do you see a role for hydrogen in those?
William: When you're looking at, you know, net zero journeys for the world, it's very obvious that certain applications are really, really challenging, you know, things like steel and cement production, just the sheer volume of energy required, kind of, regardless of source is a real challenge. And you know, lifestyle changes, etc., we don't really do a lot, you know, it's hard to replace steel and cement, isn't it? You can use more sustainable construction materials, but you can't really build bridges with wood, can you? Or we're probably not gonna build multilane bridges with wood aren't we? So there's a real challenge there. And like you say, so I think one of the things we like about diesel displacement is okay, right now, almost every construction site, and there's something like 30,000 diesel generators in the UK alone.
So these are effectively somewhere between sort of 201 MVAs tend to kill that caveat on one MVA systems deployed an area where there is insufficient power available or grid power available. And this generator typically sits there burning diesel, it's normally a non-Euro six compliant engine, although some do use that. So I'd say it's not great from an admissions perspective. So you get noise, you get loads of local emissions, and you get the CO2 from the diesel side. Now, you sort of flip that to a product specification that could take that. Okay, so can fuel cells produce that much power? Yes. Can we deliver hydrogen to them, and compete with with a diesel on price? Pretty much yes. And then what's the benefits of the alternative, so the hydrogen power unit, while it's silent, there's no local air quality issues. And if you're using green hydrogen is zero CO2. So over that, so because the road miles are the same delivery, and rapid delivery diesel, let's say for hydrogen, okay, slightly volumetric size aside, but let's say, you know, you're doing a road-based delivery.
So it's a really easy way to kind of get real tangible benefits that benefit local communities and the macro, because it starts that journey from a construction site, you know, the construction sector knows that, you know, taking cements around and using steel is hard, but they're not gonna get there tomorrow on those things, where we can start dipping their toe in the water with a zero carbon future, by getting rid of their diesel generators, then they'll get rid of their HGVs. And then eventually, they'll get into using hydrogen in the cement and the steel production. So it kind of all flows through, you know, they need to start somewhere. Because if they don't start somewhere, they can just keep sitting there saying, "Well, it's all really hard, and we need government to solve the problem for us." Whereas if you know, diesel generator replacement is a nice way of demonstrating that there's appetite to do it, where it's possible to do it, and easy to do it today. And it is easy to do it.
And I was gonna say the other thing, Tim, is the marginal cost difference, even if you're using hydrogen that say, doesn't compete quite pound for pound on the diesel in terms of energy. That's, you know, pounds per kilowatt hour, because it's going through a diesel generator, and you've got to amortize the asset etc. The typical power price from a diesel generator is probably, you know, 200 to 300 pounds per megawatt hour. So, you know, it's not that hard to compete in that, you know, you're moving the needle from being expensive power to marginally more expensive power or compete with expensive power. It's not like it's, you know, 10 dollar cents, a kilowatt in Saudi Arabia kind of power. It's not that cheap, it's expensive power anyway, so it's pretty easy to compete with it.
Tim: But it also helps to, it gives a specific stick for people to grab onto who want to decarbonize because it's not just marine fuels companies and users that want to do this. It's construction firms as well. I've spoken to quite a few big ones. And obviously, the biggest one they can pull on straightaway is to look at the provenance of their skill. So you can you can update 60% of your emissions or embedded emissions if you're moving for something which is recycled steel rather than virgin steel. So there's things to be done there but specific when we talk about people in construction, their system boundary is the site. So the diesel side is the part to decarbonize, whether it's in plants, whether it's in energy or local direct energy production, whether it's in, you know, many of these things. So that's the easiest lever for them, surely.
William: Yeah, I'd agree entirely. I mean, and the other thing sort of is, so where the application so often diesel generators sample are used to produce light and heat, well, obviously, a fuel cell gives off a lot of excess heat. So when you do a combined system, for example, where the fuel cells providing you know, electricity, whether that be for small excavators or whether that be for the welfare units, light, etc., you can also then harvest some of that heat to say hot water. So you then you really bolster the efficiency, you know, you can see combined efficiencies of say, circa 85% of you consider the electrical output and the heat output.
So, all of a sudden, it's, you know, the efficiency gains, and the local air quality benefits, etc., etc., really start to kick in. And like you say, you know, that's coupled with the bigger demand around things like the plants and the HGVs, as well. So the whole thing becomes a really nice ecosystem. And look, you know, I'm not the only person saying this, there's plenty of people in the construction sector, you know, who I talk to day in, day out who completely got this vision, and they just need help in getting there, you know, and typically, the thing they need is green hydrogen molecules delivered to those sites. And lucky for us, that's sort of a business model that we're well placed to cater to.
Tim: Yes. And that'll just bolster their credentials further, because I suppose the issue is that whether the hydrogen is produced in terms of emissions at points, its color, irrespective, these will be the benefits. But if they want to go all the way through, then green hydrogen is the way, can I ask...
William: Yeah, I would say, Tim, I don't think you can use grey hydrogen to displace diesel for things like a diesel generator plan, or HGVs because if you say, I mean, look, if you use chloral, alkaline or blue hydrogen, then yes, okay, you'd be getting a nice CO2 benefit. And you get all the other benefits you described but when you use straight grey hydrogen, you are not increasing CO2, so they're gonna be very careful about sort of that journey. Because, you know, one would argue that there's no point going down the gray hydrogen route, or things like this displacing diesel, it's a poor use case all around.
Tim: And I'd be first to argue that. I mean, that's part of the reason why we're so interested in the certification side, mainly, so that people, you know, I hate that kind of talk, we've discussed this before. But the thing is, I think it's very important that people know exactly what it is they're buying, you know, on a kilogram per kilogram basis, basically, so you can make that informed decision.
William: Yeah, and I agree entirely. And I think that's why for me, you know, you can easily imagine that, well, we have digital certificates per kilo, then maybe you want to batch up into per ton, or something like that. But in principle, you know, it's not an insurmountable data challenge for us to be able to record the provenance of different types of hydrogen, especially electrolytic hydrogen. Because, you know, electrons are very easy to track with dates, you know, there's no interest, no production process that over and above power and water in gas out the other side, you know, it's very easy for us to demonstrate the certification. Clearly, some processes are slightly more complex, and there's accounting treatment required, you know, say the chloro-alkaline process, that's quite, let's say, challenging and comes down to some of the opinions of where you want to decide to attribute the CO2, straight electrolytic hydrogen is pretty vanilla to calculate, isn't it? Really.
Tim: So I've got to ask this really quickly. Because of the...we just talked about some of the benefits, especially on local air quality issues with these or displacement, do you see use of hydrogen generators, for example, on construction sites being a what would you to say, incentivized to move to cities first. So I'm talking about, you know, Singapore, Tokyo, London, you know, urban centers, where there is gonna be some mayor in charge somewhere saying, "Look, you know, air quality PPM," all these things being monitored, this can have an immediate effect, or do you think it can just go throughout the chain anywhere, like somewhere like high speed too, or something like that, you know, these rural locations?
William: Well, I think the use case for both makes complete sense. But like you say, so, you know, I was lucky enough to jump off the tube stopped early today. I mean, the office in London, and I've walked right around the corner of Regent Street to get to the office and you know, property on Regent Street, it's incredibly expensive, you know, and when you're doing a construction project there, the marginal cost difference of mandating certain things, such as no local emissions would be trivial in the cost of a renovation project or a construction project. So for me, it makes complete sense for within our city boundaries, where we A, have a lot of people going past the site so that you know, the local benefits are actually really shared and then to sort of B, start to get visible to people, you know, that we expect construction projects to be sustainable, at least, you know, as far as they can be today.
So, for me, I think that's the obvious place it's going to go you know, I can't imagine in two years time walking through Mayfair, for example, and here in a load of diesel generators to produce power for happening, I just I just don't see it happening. It's such an easy win to sort of, say, "No more diesel generators as of X day." And you know, because the solutions are there, from a technical perspective, the fuel solutions are there, and they can afford to do it in Mayfair, you know, the marginal cost of the difference on the property or the construction is trivial. Whereas, you know, in other areas, maybe that's not going to be quite so true. But yeah, for me, city center construction is a complete no-brainer.
Tim: Well, we already do expect the health and safety aspect to be there already. So why not on the sustainability side, but we're gonna have to wrap up in a second. This is very practically speaking, if the firm wanted to go CO2 free on site today, for generators, for example, could they do this? Not across, you know, I'm talking about in specific sites. If someone wanted to do a marquee, hey, here we are in, I don't know, Los Angeles, we want to do this, are generators available. Are there firms at the moment you think can practically ferry hydrogen society and storage and those kinds of things, can it be done today?
William: So if you look at the three core elements of a construction project, like that, so city center builds, okay, so the big cranes were already electric, typically, and then you've got the HGVs driving things in and out, they could be fuel cells very easily. They could also be electric, depending on the range, etc., you've got the plant side of things. Again, there's plenty of different applications, typically they have been looking at combustion rather than a fuel cell, but their conversion of the hydrogen, you know, we sort of say assume the Knox issue gets resolved will be zero CO2. And then you've got the on site power demands on it. But where it can't be done through the grips of diesel generators, there is products available and gas available that can meet those product requirements. So yes, it could definitely be done.
Now, obviously, you've got the small things like the steel source people used to cut bits of concrete, you know, the small bits and stuff like that. I'm pretty sure, I've not seen hydrogen in one of those, although now I'm thinking why don't we start a business that makes those as well. But anyway, that's probably part of the very, very small side of things a handheld machinery side of things, then yes, definitely all the key elements are there for product perspective and the gas provision perspective.
Tim: Exciting. I hope to see some of these soon. Well, thank you very much for coming on today. Absolute pleasure to talk to you. We'll wrap there and the "Argus Hydrogen Future Fuels" podcast will return soon.
