LNG
Overview
LNG's role as a key feedstock is well established as it helps manage both input costs and carbon emissions. Heavy industrial users' drive to achieve net zero targets has added a new dimension to how and where it is being deployed. Overall, its use is expected to increase and is tipped to become the strongest-growing fossil fuel.
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Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce
Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce
Dubai, 17 January (Argus) — The Yemen-based Houthi militant group said it will monitor implementation of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Gaza-based Hamas, raising the possibility of a reprieve for shipping in the Red Sea, but will remain prepared for military action if the deal is breached. "Our position regarding the situation in Gaza is linked to the position of our brothers in the Palestinian [armed] factions," Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech on 16 January. "We will continue to monitor the stages of implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and any Israeli [violation], we will be directly ready to support militarily the Palestinian people." Al-Houthi's remarks suggest a halt in his Iran-backed group's campaign against shipping passing through the mouth of the Red Sea and against Israel directly. But with no clarity if he was referring to attacks on Israel or shipping lanes, shipping firms are likely to remain cautious about returning to the Red Sea. The Houthis began attacking commercial vessels with western and Israeli affiliations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden following an escalation of fighting between Hamas and Israel. Al-Houthi said his group have carried out 1,255 operations, including using ballistic missiles, drones and gunboats, since November 2023. But the risk of an attack in the Red Sea remains despite the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, tanker owner Frontline said today. "We [are] all hopeful with the ceasefire, but… any ceasefire will be vulnerable with risk of [a] crew being caught if it breaks," Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad wrote on X. The possibility of an attack has compelled many ship operators to forego the Suez Canal in favor of longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope in the last year, adding time and cost to movement of commodities. Transit of liquid and dry cargoes through the Suez Canal totaled 343mn t last year, less than half the 763mn t in 2023, according to data from Kpler. The ceasefire deal was announced late on Wednesday, 15 January, by Qatar and the US, two of the three countries that have been helping to mediate the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt is the third. Israel's security cabinet will meet today to sign off on the deal, and will send it for approval from the full government. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global LNG export capacity to grow by 47mn t in 2025
Global LNG export capacity to grow by 47mn t in 2025
London, 16 January (Argus) — Global liquefaction capacity is set to grow by about 47mn t/yr in 2025, a sharp increase compared with the 13mn t/yr of capacity that came on line in 2024, based on Argus calculations. New export facilities that have reached a final investment decision (FID) and are expected to begin commissioning this year total 46.8mn t/yr of capacity, largely driven by projects in Canada and the US, which account for 42.1mn t/yr ( see table ). The capacity boost expected this year is, in practice, a more than sevenfold increase compared with the newly commissioned capacity in 2024, as broadly half of the capacity that came on line last year has remained mostly idle. The 13mn t/yr of capacity that officially came on line last year includes the first 6.6mn t/yr liquefaction train at Novatek's 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 complex, which has remained largely idle because US sanctions limited demand for loadings. Arctic LNG 2 has only loaded eight cargoes to date, with none delivered owing to risks of secondary sanctions, according to shiptracking data from Kpler. New export capacity is slated to start commissioning as early as this month. Train one of Cheniere's Corpus Christi 11.5mn t/yr stage three expansion reported first production of LNG in late December, and might be able to load its first cargo soon. Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG project — which has a peak capacity of 27.2mn t/yr and a nameplate capacity of 20mn t/yr — could be entirely operational this year after blocks 1-4 of its phase one stage started producing LNG in mid-December . Its first cargo was loaded on 26 December . Plaquemines has received a quicker ramp-up of feedgas deliveries than anticipated, and market participants expect the entire project to be able to export close to capacity much faster than previously anticipated. That said, the operator still expects the commissioning phase to last until the third quarter of 2026 . Nearly all projects with 2024-25 operational dates are based in the Atlantic basin, with the exception of Canada's 14mn t/yr LNG Canada export terminal, located off the coast of northern British Columbia. Operator Shell plans to start loadings in mid-2025. Atlantic capacity well-placed for structural Europe demand Atlantic basin projects have an embedded incentive to supply Europe owing to shorter transit times and lower shipping costs, and new capacity this year could alleviate any supply-side pressure from the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and minimum storage level requirements ahead of next winter. Gas withdrawals across Europe have increased this year, with EU-wide storage less than 65pc full based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe at the time of reporting. Several countries, including Croatia and the Netherlands, have dipped below the 50pc mark. Gas flows have been reshaped, with flows going eastwards to bridge the gap from the halt in Russian flows through Ukraine, which served central and eastern Europe. German storage withdrawals averaged 1.7 TWh/d for the week ending 11 January , compared with withdrawals of 1.2 TWh/d a week earlier. EU regulations mandate a 90pc storage fill level by 1 November , which is likely to drive strong fundamental demand for LNG cargoes later in the year. By Bonnie Lao New LNG export capacity, 2024-25 mn t Operational timeline Project Geography Country Capacity 2025 Jan-25 Corpus Christi stage 3 (trains 1-2) Atlantic US 3.3 Feb-25 Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 (blocks 5-8) Atlantic US 4.4 Mar-25 Tortue Atlantic Senegal 2.3 Apr-25 LNG Canada T1 Asia-Pacific Canada 7.0 Apr-25 Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 (blocks 9-12) Atlantic US 4.4 Jun-25 LNG Canada T2 Asia-Pacific Canada 7.0 Jul-25 Plaquemines LNG Phase 2 (blocks 13-15) Atlantic US 3.3 Sep-25 Corpus Christi stage 3 (trains 3-4) Atlantic US 3.3 Oct-25 Plaquemines LNG Phase 2 (blocks 15-18) Atlantic US 3.3 Dec-25 Golden Pass LNG T1 Atlantic US 6.0 Dec-25 Congo LNG (Phase 2) Atlantic Republic of Congo 2.4 Total 46.8 2024 Mar-24 Congo LNG (Phase 1) Atlantic Republic of Congo 0.6 Jul-24 Altamira fast LNG (Phase 1) Atlantic Mexico 1.4 Oct-24 Arctic LNG 2 T1 Atlantic Russia 6.6 Dec-24 Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 (blocks 1-4) Atlantic US 4.4 Total 13.0 — Argus New LNG export capacity, 2023-27 mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Seoul may scale down nuclear expansion plans
Seoul may scale down nuclear expansion plans
The delay to finalising the country's nuclear goals may make it unfeasible to build sufficient capacity before current assets expire, writes Evelyn Lee London, 15 January (Argus) — South Korea's energy industry has faced a whirlwind of challenges since the impeachment of now-suspended president Yoon Suk-Yeol, with the political turmoil stalling a crucial review of its energy strategy in the national assembly. The government is now seeking to scale down its nuclear expansion ambitions in order to hasten the plan's review. Yoon's surprise declaration of martial law last month was reversed within six hours owing to bipartisan political pressure and widespread protests, which resulted in a national assembly vote in favour of the president's impeachment and his subsequent arrest on 15 January. Yoon is suspended from office pending a ruling by the country's constitutional court — due within six months of the impeachment vote on 14 December. If six out of nine justices vote to uphold the impeachment, Yoon will be removed from office and presidential elections will be held within 60 days. South Korea acted quickly following the martial law declaration, but government action has overall been slowed down by the political turmoil — including on energy policy. The latest draft of its long-overdue electricity plan was completed in June and scheduled to be submitted to the Trade, Industry, Energy, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and Start-ups Committee of the national assembly by the end of last year. But the committee has suspended general meetings since 19 December, according to schedules released on its website. The long-term electricity plan is renewed every two years and serves as a basis for business planning, especially for state-controlled companies. Gas incumbent Kogas' procurement strategy has historically reflected the electricity plan. The latest draft lays out Seoul's intention to build three more nuclear reactors by 2038. But planning and construction would take nearly 14 years, according to the government, so the delay in finalising the plan could result in a power supply shortfall by 2038 — when 9.15GW of existing nuclear capacity is set to expire. Nuclear fallout The government may opt to scale down its nuclear expansion ambitions in order to get the draft electricity plan seen by the committee — which must review the plan, although it is not required to approve it. And less nuclear capacity could increase the need for more gas-fired capacity. The energy ministry pledged on 8 January to finalise the plan by June, after which it will pass related bills including the power grid act, but it did not say how it intends to progress the plan in the national assembly. The Korean Nuclear Society (KNS) responded on 9 January, accusing the government of allegedly planning to revise its nuclear objectives so it can speed up the plan's progress. The government's intent to revise its nuclear goals "without any scientific basis" shows that the electricity plan is just a "political bargaining tool that can vary depending on political interests", the KNS said. This threatens the stability of the South Korean electricity market, it added. The ministry did not respond to Argus' request for comment. But the alleged revision may not have been solely driven by political motives. Seoul may have missed the window of opportunity for approving new nuclear capacity in the timescale required, judging by the 14-year timeline for planning and construction. It remains unclear how the government would offset any reduction in its nuclear ambitions, but South Korea's slow grid development may leave little alternative other than boosting gas-fired capacity. Under the current draft electricity plan, gas-fired output would account for a 25.1pc (160.8TWh) share of total generation in 2030 and 11.1pc (78.1TWh) in 2038, up from 22.9pc (142.4TWh) and 9.3pc (62.3TWh), respectively, in the previous plan. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's ACCC sees gas surplus for eastern states
Australia's ACCC sees gas surplus for eastern states
Sydney, 10 January (Argus) — Tight gas supply eased in Australia's eastern states during 2024, with a surplus higher than previously anticipated likely this year, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). The ACCC's Gas Inquiry December 2024 interim report anticipates a 77-112PJ (2.1bn-3bn m³) surplus, driven by larger than expected supply from Queensland state's coal-bed methane projects. The projections show a surplus in each quarter of 2025, including in the peak-demand winter months, if LNG projects export all their available uncontracted gas. This compared with the ACCC's September report which showed a possible July-September shortfall. But a 16PJ supply gap is predicted for the southern states of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales (NSW), which will need to be managed with careful usage of storage. But this does not account for the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired generator's lifetime extension , which will reduce gas-fired power demand in 2025, the report said. The ACCC is predicting a supply of 1,982PJ in 2025, higher than 1,946PJ in its July report, with demand at 1,871PJ compared to 1,836PJ previously. The exact surplus figure depends on the export quantities from the LNG projects based at Gladstone, with 77PJ of surplus if projects export all their presently uncontracted gas. Gas will need to be transported south from Queensland as usual in the winter months, the ACCC said, with about 9pc of customer demand to be unmet. The 26PJ Iona gas storage site in Victoria held 16.06PJ on 2 January, up from 15.11PJ a week earlier on 26 December, with the ACCC recommending at least 25PJ to be stored before May to maximise levels ahead of winter. The improved outlook reflects Australia's growing coalbed methane output, with production reaching a new monthly high of 3.57bn m³ in August, according to Australian Petroleum Statistics. An average of 3.49bn m³/month was supplied in the first 10 months of 2024, or 26pc of Australia's total average monthly gas production of 13.51bn m³. This compared to 25pc of the total in 2023 and 24pc in 2022. Domestic gas prices have softened, the report said, because of higher supply and lower global prices but remain above historical levels. Offers from producers for 2025 supply fell by 1.8pc from the previous six months to A$14.77/GJ ($9.15/GJ) in the first half of 2024, while bids fell by 6.6pc to A$13.48/GJ. By Tom Major Australian gas prices (A$/GJ) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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