April 21
Online conference

Argus Global Crude Challenges 2020

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  • GLOBAL MACRO-ECONOMIC & CRUDE MARKET REVIEW David Fyfe - Chief Economist, Argus
  • Which path for economic recovery post-coronavirus?
  • Impact on oil demand and short-term outlook
  • How the crisis has affected non-OPEC supply, notably US shale
  • Does OPEC+ still exist, and if so, what is its role going forward?
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  • OIL MARKET BALANCE IN 2020: HOW AND WHEN? Vladimir Drebentsov - Chief Economist for Russia and CIS, BP
  • Global oil demand dynamics during and after the quarantine is a hostage to governmental actions to limit the pandemic. But it will also affect possible changes in consumer sentiment after the removal of the quarantine. This will have longer-term consequences.
  • Administrative measures to cut production are likely to be insufficient to balance oil market fundamentals in the coming months. In such a situation the economy of oil storage and transportation has an even greater impact on the dynamics of current prices than the traditional production cost
  • It is infrastructure and logistics constraints that may become crucial for determining who will have to reduce production in addition to the announced administrative cuts
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  • RE-THINKING ASIA’S LONG-TERM OIL SUPPLY: MIDDLE EAST RUSHES TO CEMENT LEAD Alejandro Barbajosa - VP, LPG & Crude Middle East & Asia Pacific, Argus
  • What does the coronavirus oil demand shock mean for Asian refiners?
  • Saudi Arabia reasserts control in the battle for market share
  • Pricing mechanisms working to halt Atlantic basin crude shipments to Asia-Pacific
  • Middle Eastern NOCs change markers: the fragmentation of pricing
  • Short-haul Russian crude performs well in a challenging environment
  • Upside down: New price relationships in the US Gulf coast crude markets
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  • CHINESE MARKETS AFTER THE CORONAVIRUS: THE WINNER OF A PRICE WAR Tom Reed - VP China Crude and Products, Argus
  • China is back in the market. Demand is rising strongly and that is making China a key battleground for oil market share, following Saudi Arabia’s decision to ramp up output and slash prices
  • Record amounts of Urals crude traded on a delivered basis to China in March as sour crude suppliers slashed prices to match Saudi discounts
  • US is joining the fight for Chinese market share, suggesting an intensely competitive market developing in the third quarter of the year.
  • Where this price war can lead without high level government intervention?
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  • RUSSIA’S PROSPECTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CRUDE MARKETS Victor Parno - VP, FSU Business Development, Argus
  • Urals prices are at 21st century record lows
  • Far Eastern grades are traded with discounts first time in history
  • Outlooks for production increase with negative export margins
  • Refinery maintenance season: rise of exports amid lack of global demand
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  • OIL INDUSTRY UNDER THE ULTRA-NEW-NORMAL ENVIRONMENT Denis Borisov - Energy Center Leader, Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe & Central Asia, EY
  • Can OPEC+ agreement return the optimism to the market?
  • How are the upstream projects doing? Should we expect the plunge of oil production amid profitability drop?
  • Refining: pricing anomaly?
  • Strategies adjusting: is there any unique response of oil&gas companies to Covid-19?
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  • CRUDE IN THE TIME OF CORONAVIRUS – THE VIEW FROM EUROPE James Gooder - VP Crude, Europe, Argus
  • Europe’s crude mix – changing volumes from Mideast, Russia, US and North Sea
  • Freight rates – Saudi buying spree pushes rates higher, constrains long haul trade
  • Localisation of benchmarks – less long-haul trade pushes benchmarks into own backyards
  • Market structure – contango drives crude into floating storage
  • Crude oversupply – Coronavirus delays North Sea field maintenance while hammering demand
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  • US CRUDE MARKET OVERVIEW Jeff Kralowetz - VP - Business Development, Crude & NGL, North America, Argus
  • US crude production will fall, but how far and how fast?
  • Is shale really the weakest link?
  • What do low prices mean for the US infrastructure boom?
  • Is this the end of US exports?
  • Can imports compete with domestic North American crude?
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  • REAL TIME CRUDE FOR REAL TIME DECISIONS Alex Woods - Unified Supply Chain Management – Spiral Assay Product Manager, AVEVA