Latest market news

Seoul reaffirms its commitment to reduce coal reliance

  • Market: Coal
  • 06/01/21

Coal-fired power generation in South Korea is expected to decrease by 23pc by 2030 from 2019's level, under the government's ninth basic electricity plan. This would reduce annual power-sector coal consumption by around 18.6mn t/year of NAR 5,700 kcal/kg-equivalent material.

The ministry of energy and industry (Motie) last month finalised its plan to reduce the share of coal in South Korea's electricity mix to 29.9pc in 2030, compared with 40.29pc in 2019. The plan also confirms the government's intention of converting 24 of state-owned Kepco's coal units with around 12.7GW capacity to run on gas by 2034, although gas' share of the power mix will still decrease to 23.3pc in 2030, from 25.8pc in 2019.

The government also aims to have renewable sources account for around 121.7TWh or 20.8pc of power generation by 2030, which implies overall power generation will be around 585.1TWh in 2030, up by around 4pc from 2019.

On this basis, the targeted 29.9pc share for coal would be the equivalent of 174.9TWh in 2030, down by around 51.9TWh from 226.8TWh in 2019. This is the equivalent of 62.8mn t/year NAR 5,700 kcal/kg-equivalent coal burn in 40pc efficient plants, according to Argus' analysis, which would be 18.6mn t/year lower than in 2019.

Gas-fired power output would decrease by 8.8TWh to 136.3TWh in 2030 from 2019 under the plan, which is equivalent to 16.4mn t annual LNG consumption in 55pc efficient power plants and 1.06mn t/year less LNG than in 2019.

The ministry also plans to reduce the country's coal capacity to 32.6GW and increase gas capacity to 55.5GW in 2030. Based on these targets, South Korean coal capacity would be dispatched at a 61pc load in 2030 compared with a 70pc load in 2019. But gas' load factor will decrease by more than 32pc to 28pc in 2030, as fossil fuels are expected to play a bigger role in meeting peak power demand and a smaller role in the base load amid rising renewable generation.

The Moon Jae-In administration remains committed to its nuclear phase-out policy in the latest electricity plan and will gradually reduce nuclear capacity to 20.4GW in 2030 and then 19.4GW in 2034, from 23.25GW in 2019. But nuclear's share of total generation will remain flat at 25pc in 2030 compared with around 25.9pc in 2019, which means South Korea's annual nuclear output will edge higher to 146.3TWh in 2030, from 145.9TWh in 2019, according to Argus' analysis.

Solar capacity accounted for around 71pc of South Korea's total renewable capacity as of 2020, with 2020 solar output expected to reach 16.6TWh. Motie has forecast solar output to increase to 45.5TWh in 2030, accounting for around 37pc of all renewable generation.

The share of wind generation in the renewables mix will increase to 33pc in 2030 from 7.5pc in 2020, driving the overall growth in renewable output.

South Korea typically updates its 15-year energy plan every two years, although the ninth plan was set back by over a year.

South Korean power generation outlook TWh

South Korean generation capacity outlook GW

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
13/12/24

US river lock closures may delay product deliveries

US river lock closures may delay product deliveries

Houston, 13 December (Argus) — Mid-Mississippi River and Illinois River locks are expected to undergo long-term closures starting next month, slowing down some commodity deliveries. Three locks around the St Louis, Missouri, and Granite City, Illinois, region will be closed for repairs for up to three months starting 1 January, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. The Mel Price Main Lock, where the Illinois River flows into the Mississippi River, and Lock 27's main lock, where the Missouri flows into the Mississippi, will also be closed from 1 January through 1 April. The Mel Price Main Lock will commence the final phase of replacement for its upstream lift-gate. Replacement of embedded metals will occur during the closure for Lock 27's main lock. Lock 25 will have a shorter closure date for a sill beam and guide-wall concrete installment from 1 January through 2 March. This is the first lock on the upper Mississippi River, after the Illinois River. These closures are expected to be more of a nuisance than a deterrent for commodity traffic, according to barge carriers. Ice in the river is likely to have melted by mid-March, which may cause barge carriers to wait in the St Louis harbor for the locks to open. Two other lengthy closures are anticipated on the Illinois River beginning on 28 January. The Lockport Lock — the second to last lock on the Illinois River — will be fully closed from 28 January through 25 March for full repairs to the sill and seal of the lock. The prior lock, Brandon Road Lock, will be closed during weekdays over the same time period, but traffic can pass through over the weekend. The lock closures and repairs are expected to delay some barge shipments, specifically to the Great Lakes and Burns Harbor. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes


06/12/24
News
06/12/24

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Washington, 6 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025. The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years. The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue. Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward. "We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence." Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill


06/12/24
News
06/12/24

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill

Houston, 6 December (Argus) — A US House of Representatives committee has approved a bipartisan bill that authorizes improvements to navigation channels by the Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and maintenance and dredging of river and port infrastructure projects. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee advanced the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) after several months of political wrangling to integrate earlier versions of the legislation approved by the House and Senate . The bill will head to the full House next week, said committee chairman Sam Graves (R-Missouri). This would be the sixth consecutive bipartisan WRDA bill since 2014 if passed by congress. WRDA is a biennial bill that authorizes the Corps to continue working on projects to improve waterways, including port updates, flood protection and supply chain management. WRDA will also "reduce cumbersome red tape", which will allow for quicker project turnarounds, Graves said. The bill authorizes processes to streamline work, he said. The bill also adjusts the primary cost-sharing mechanism for funding for lock and dam construction and major rehabilitation projects. The US Treasury Department's general fund will pay 75pc of costs, up from 65pc, with the rest coming from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is funded by a barge diesel fuel tax. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Knight Hawk shuts Viper coal mine in Illinois


05/12/24
News
05/12/24

Knight Hawk shuts Viper coal mine in Illinois

Washington, 5 December (Argus) — US coal producer Knight Hawk Holdings has closed its Viper mine in Illinois after its main customer decided to switch suppliers. There are no other potential customers for the mine in central and northern Illinois, Knight Hawk president Jim Smith said. The landlocked operation is not near any rail loadouts and has no river access, making it difficult to reach other domestic and export customers. A drop in coal demand from its primary customer — City Water Light and Power in Springfield, Illinois — coupled with increased mining costs, made it difficult for Viper to compete for the generator's business, Smith said. The mine and the utility "had a great relationship for decades and worked in respect to achieve a more positive outcome", Smith said. The utility was Viper's largest and longest-running customer but it recently switched suppliers , replacing a long-term agreement with Viper with coal from Foresight Energy's Deer Run mine in Hillsboro, Illinois. The utility has significantly reduced its demand for coal in recent years, falling to about 400,000-500,000 short tons/yr from well over 1mn st in the past, after retiring three of its four generating units. The mine had "wonderful workers with incredible attitudes", and Knight Hawk has offered them the opportunity to seek positions at its southern Illinois mines, but few want to relocate more than two hours away, Smith said. A team of 20 people remain to conclude operations and begin reclamation. Production at Viper, which opened in 1983, mostly exceeded 2mn st/yr from 1997-2015, data from the US Mine Safety and Health Administration show. But production began to decline after that, as regional power plants were retired. Production ended in July. Output for the first three quarters was 246,266st, a 58pc decrease compared with the same nine months in 2023. Viper and Knight Hawk Coal are subsidiaries of Knight Hawk Holdings. By Abby Caplan Viper mine coal production ’000st Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australian thermal coal exports drop on year in October


05/12/24
News
05/12/24

Australian thermal coal exports drop on year in October

Sydney, 5 December (Argus) — Australia's thermal coal exports dropped by 4.8pc on the year to 17.1mn t in October, because of subdued South Korean and Indian coal demand. Australian thermal coal exports to South Korea have been relatively low since the start of the year. South Korean energy providers bought 9.8mn t of Australian thermal coal between January-October, 17pc less than they did over the same period last year. On the other side of Asia, Indian thermal coal imports have been dropping in recent months, on the back of growing domestic coal production and declining coal-fired power generation. The country imported 122,196t on Australian thermal coal last month, substantially below the 1.5mn t purchased over the same period last year. Australia's two largest trading partners, China and Japan, accounted for 74.2pc of its October thermal coal exports, more than they have at any point since 2020. The two countries bought 29.3pc of the thermal coal sold by Australian firms in May 2021, and have been steadily increasing their coal market share since. Japanese coal imports from Australia fell by 6.4pc on the month to 5.9mn t in October, and may have continued to fall throughout November, according to recently released shipping records. The Japan Meteorological Agency also in early December forecast a warm winter for the county. The difference between Argus ' Newcastle average NAR 6,000kcal and 5,500kcal fob prices rose to $53/t in October, up by 38pc on the year. The value of 6,000kcal coal has remained relatively stable throughout that period, while the value of 5,500kcal coal has slid downwards. Australian mining firms received an average of $111.10/t for their coal in October 2023, down from $116/t a year earlier. Average Australian export coal prices have consistently lagged 2023 prices since the start of the year, although the gap between the two has narrowed from $137.90/t since January to $4.90/t. By Avinash Govind Australia thermal coal exports Oct '24 Oct '23 Jan - Oct '24 Jan - Oct '23 Total (mn t) 17.1 2.0 169.2 164.8 Value ($bn) 1.9 3.0 19.3 26.3 Average Price ($/t) 111.1 4.0 114.2 163.1 Average FX rate 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 ABS Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more