IEA sees oil market flipping to supply surplus in 2024

Market: Crude oil
13/09/23

The IEA has made a substantial downwards revision to its projected oil demand deficit this year and now sees the market flipping into a surplus in 2024.

In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) the Paris-based agency sees a deficit this year of 210,000 b/d, down from 670,000 b/d forecast in last month's OMR. For 2024, it now sees a surplus of 490,000 b/d, compared with a deficit of 160,000 b/d last month.

The change appears to be driven by a downward revision to its historical oil demand estimates, with 2022 oil demand pegged lower by 370,000 b/d compared with last month and 2023 down by 350,000 b/d.

But the agency's 2023 global oil demand growth forecast remains largely unchanged at 2.24mn b/d, just 20,000 b/d higher than last month's estimate. It left its 2024 oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 0.99mn b/d — less than half of this year's projection.

It said demand growth this year is being driven by resurgent Chinese consumption, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. For 2024, it sees naphtha and LPG/ethane leading the increase, "especially in China".

The IEA sees global oil supply growth of 1.5mn b/d in 2023, unchanged from last month's report. This would boost supply to a record 101.6mn b/d this year, before a further 1.7mn b/d of supply additions in 2024. But the IEA cautioned that Saudi Arabia's and Russia's extension of their additional supply cuts until the end of 2023 would "drive a significant supply fall" through to the fourth quarter. The IEA puts the demand deficit at 1.1mn b/d in the final three months of the year, around 100,000 b/d lower than in last month's report.

The IEA put the call on Opec crude at 28.7mn b/d for 2023, down by 600,000 b/d compared with last month's report. For 2024, the agency sees the call lower at 28.4mn b/d. Opec produced 27.45mn b/d of crude last month, up by around 110,000 b/d compared with July, according to an average of its secondary sources including Argus.

The IEA said global observed oil inventories fell by 76.34mn bl to a 13-month low in August, according to early estimates. The largest falls came from oil on water, which dropped by more than 50mn bl compared with end-July levels.

By Aydin Calik

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07/11/25

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q: Update

Updates with investment plans in paras 3-4 and explorations plans in paras 8-9 Rio de Janeiro, 7 November (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras' investments increased by 24pc in the third quarter from a year earlier, as the firm continues to focus on production in the offshore pre-salt. Petrobras spent $5.5bn in capital expenditure (capex) in July-September, of which $4.7bn was for exploration and production. Of this investment in exploration and production, $2.7bn went to developing production of the pre-salt cluster in the Santos basin, particularly the construction of seven new floating production, storage and offloading units that will serve the Buzios, Atapu and Sepia fields. A further $900mn went to developing production in the Campos basin's pre- and post-salt, and $500mn went to exploration. Total investments over the first nine months of the year were $14bn, a 29pc increase on the same period last year. The company has speeded up investment execution due to projects being brought forward, rather than higher costs, and is on track to meet guidance by year's end, directors said. Capex guidance for 2025 as outlined in Petrobras' 2025-2029 business plan is $18.5bn. The firm is due to present an updated plan at the end of November. There are no plans to cut investments next year, said the director for engineering, technology and innovation, Renata Baruzzi. Petrobras posted a profit of R32.7bn ($6bn) in the third quarter, a 0.5pc increase on the same quarter last year and 23pc more than in the previous quarter. Higher crude production as well as stronger crude exports and domestic sales of diesel drove the third quarter result, Petrobras said. It also cited a small rallying of oil prices, with the price of Brent growing by 2pc compared with the second quarter, and lower operational costs, as contributing factors. The company's board approved a payout of R12.16bn ($2.3bn) to shareholders, or R0.9432/share, down from R1.3282/share a year earlier. Dividends will be paid in two installments, in February and March. Exploration going forward Petrobras celebrated receiving regulatory approval last month to drill an exploratory well in the Foz do Amazonas basin off Brazil's northern coast. This is the most coveted area in the equatorial margin, a new oil frontier which could contain reserves similar to those found off Guyana. The company hopes to find oil in this first well, named Morpho, but if not it will continue exploration, director for exploration and production Sylvia Anjos said. "We are already planning for eight wells in the region," she said. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight apply brakes to output rises

07/11/25

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07/11/25

Opec+ eight apply brakes to output rises

London, 7 November (Argus) — Eight core Opec+ members have put the brakes on their monthly production increases, giving them time to assess the impact of new US sanctions on Russia. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will make one last production target increase worth 137,000 b/d in December before pausing the hikes in January-March. The pause ends nine consecutive months of production target increases, during which the eight have fully unwound a 2.2mn b/d set of cuts and in October started to unwind another set of cuts worth 1.65mn b/d. The group has agreed to three monthly increases worth a combined 411,000 b/d up to December, leaving 1.24mn b/d to unwind. The eight officially attributed the pause to "seasonality", referring to expectations of lower oil demand in the first quarter of 2026. But more importantly, the pause will allow them to gauge the impact of recent US sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Whether Russia can maintain its crude output and exports under the new restrictions remains uncertain. If Rosneft and Lukoil cannot find workarounds to the sanctions and buyers for their crude, they may have to start reducing production. In such an event, Opec+ may feel the need to step in to replace lost Russian output. "I think everyone is monitoring the Russia sanctions and it's difficult for them to actually predict how those sanctions will go," trading firm Mercuria's chief executive Marco Dunand says. "I think they are pausing because there is a lot of oil on the water... I think it's about 60mn bl, but I'm not sure." The eight countries said their decision reflects a "cautious approach", but they reiterated their "full flexibility" to accelerate, pause or reverse the monthly output hikes, depending on market conditions. "The group wants to adopt a more cautious approach, exactly like it did at the beginning of 2025, when it decided to delay the unwinding process of the initial 2.2mn b/d voluntary cut until April," one delegate told Argus. No consensus But views on the oil market remain sharply divided. The IEA forecasts a significant supply surplus in the fourth quarter and in 2026, while Opec expects a more balanced market, underpinned by strong demand this year and next. Speaking at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said he "can't see or justify" an oversupply scenario. "All of what we are seeing is more demand," he said. European oil majors are also divided on market fundamentals. While Shell chief executive Wael Sawan sees a "highly credible scenario" for oversupply in 2026, BP and TotalEnergies have pushed back against a near-term oil glut , arguing that demand remains resilient and non-Opec+ supply growth is likely to taper off next year. "The determination of what happens really sits around three factors — Opec+ choices, China's stockpiling behaviour and the sanctions environment," BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss says. Oil prices rebounded from multi-month lows of around $60/bl after the US unveiled its sanctions on 22 October, with Ice front-month Brent now around $65/bl. But this is still below where many Opec+ members would prefer. Production by the eight members had increased by 2.1mn b/d in October from when they started unwinding their cuts in April, according to Argus estimates. Production by the 18 members of the alliance that adhere to output targets rose by 30,000 b/d on the month to 36.2mn b/d in October — the group's highest production since April 2023 (see table). By Aydin Calik, Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi Opec+ crude production mn b/d Oct Sep* Oct target† ± target Opec 9 23.05 22.95 23.19 -0.14 Non-Opec 9 13.15 13.22 13.27 -0.12 Total Opec+ 18 36.20 36.17 36.46 -0.26 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 and Nov 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d Oct Sep* Oct target† ± target Saudi Arabia 10.01 9.98 10.02 -0.01 Iraq 4.11 4.08 4.24 -0.13 Kuwait 2.57 2.52 2.56 +0.01 UAE 3.36 3.38 3.39 -0.03 Algeria 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.01 Nigeria 1.52 1.51 1.50 +0.02 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.25 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.21 0.21 0.18 +0.03 Equatorial Guinea 0.04 0.05 0.07 -0.03 Opec 9 23.05 22.95 23.19 -0.14 Iran 3.39 3.45 na na Libya 1.32 1.37 na na Venezuela 1.00 1.05 na na Total Opec 12^ 28.76 28.82 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 and Nov 23 ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Oct Sep* Oct target† ± target Russia 9.41 9.37 9.49 -0.08 Oman 0.80 0.79 0.80 -0.00 Azerbaijan 0.45 0.44 0.55 -0.10 Kazakhstan 1.68 1.83 1.56 +0.12 Malaysia 0.36 0.36 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.01 0.02 0.06 -0.05 South Sudan 0.16 0.15 0.12 +0.04 Total non-Opec 13.15 13.22 13.27 -0.12 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 and Nov 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q

07/11/25

News

07/11/25

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q

Rio de Janeiro, 7 November (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras' investments increased by 24pc in the third quarter from a year earlier, as the firm continues to focus on production in the offshore pre-salt. Petrobras spent $5.5bn in capital expenditure (capex) in July-September, of which $4.7bn was for exploration and production. Of this investment in exploration and production, $2.7bn went to developing production of the pre-salt cluster in the Santos basin, particularly the construction of seven new floating production, storage and offloading units that will serve the Buzios, Atapu and Sepia fields. A further $900mn went to developing production in the Campos basin's pre- and post-salt, and $500mn went to exploration. Total investments over the first nine months of the year were $14bn, a 29pc increase on the same period last year. Capex guidance for 2025 as outlined in Petrobras' 2025-2029 business plan is $18.5bn. Petrobras posted a profit of R32.7bn ($6bn) in the third quarter, a 0.5pc increase on the same quarter last year and 23pc more than in the previous quarter. Higher crude production as well as stronger crude exports and domestic sales of diesel drove the third quarter result, Petrobras said. It also cited a small rallying of oil prices, with the price of Brent growing by 2pc compared with the second quarter, and lower operational costs, as contributing factors. The company's board approved a payout of R12.16bn ($2.3bn) to shareholders, or R0.9432/share, down from R1.3282/share a year earlier. Dividends will be paid in two installments, in February and March. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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MEG shareholders approve Cenovus deal

06/11/25

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06/11/25

MEG shareholders approve Cenovus deal

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UAE's Adnoc holds line on 5mn b/d crude capacity push

06/11/25

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06/11/25

UAE's Adnoc holds line on 5mn b/d crude capacity push

Dubai, 6 November (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc is pressing ahead with plans to lift crude production capacity to 5mn b/d by 2027, undeterred by this year's lower oil prices and the significant capital required to sustain output from ageing fields. Adnoc reported in May 2024 that its maximum sustainable capacity had reached 4.85mn b/d, up from 4.65mn b/d previously. Upstream chief executive Musabbeh al-Kaabi gave the same figure this week on the sidelines of the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi. Adnoc's long-term investment programme remains intact, and onshore and offshore drilling activity is "extremely busy" as the company ramps up brownfield expansions to complete the final stretch of its capacity-build plan, al-Kaabi said. "Raising capacity to 5mn b/d will require massive investment to sustain," he added, noting that some of Abu Dhabi's legacy fields will need continual infill drilling and redevelopment to offset natural decline. Al-Kaabi framed the strategy as both a commercial and policy priority, echoing projections made by Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber in his Adipec opening speech that global oil demand will remain above 100mn b/d through 2040 and beyond. "Because Abu Dhabi crude is among the lowest-carbon barrels globally, it's our responsibility to ensure secure and affordable supply," al-Kaabi said. He also underscored the importance of maintaining spare capacity as a strategic buffer, despite the financial cost of holding back supply. "It's in our interest to ensure the market is stable whenever there is demand for low-carbon crude. Stability and predictability are great for investment," he said. In a high oil price environment, "it takes only two or three years of maximum production to recover all costs", he added. The maximum sustainable capacity of the 22-member Opec+ alliance is under renewed scrutiny, with the group due to begin updating each member's production baseline to calculate targets for 2027. Opec+ agreed in September on a mechanism to assess members' maximum sustainable capacity, but the process is expected to be contentious, as countries often claim inflated figures to secure higher output quotas. The UAE has already secured two upward quota revisions in 2022 and 2023 to reflect its growing capacity. Given the pace of capacity gains in the last few years and how close Adnoc is to its target, the company may announce it has reached 5mn b/d capacity ahead of schedule. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA sees oil market flipping to supply surplus in 2024

Related news posts

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q: Update

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q: Update

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Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q

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MEG shareholders approve Cenovus deal

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