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CNPE define metas para o Renovabio de 2024 a 2033

  • Market: Biofuels, Emissions
  • 01/12/23

O Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE) definiu, após consulta pública, as metas da Política Nacional de Biocombustíveis (Renovabio) para os créditos de descarbonização (Cbio) nos próximos dez anos.

A meta para 2024 será de 38,78 milhões de Cbios, queda de 24pc em relação à previsão original de 50,8 milhões. As metas de Cbios de 2023 foram de 37,47 milhões.

As metas anuais para o Renovabio continuarão crescendo até atingir 71,29 milhão de Cbios, em 2033.

No programa, cada Cbio gerado com a venda de biocombustível representa uma tonelada de CO2 evitada. O programa estabelece metas anuais de redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa para as distribuidoras de combustíveis. As metas são alcançadas por meio da aquisição de Cbios comercializados por produtores de biocombustíveis.

Metas de Cbios para 2024-33milhões
AnoMeta± ano anterior %
202438,783,5
202542,569,8
202648,0913
202752,378,9
202856,417,7
202961,248,6
203064,084,6
203167,134,8
203268,812,5
203371,293,6

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07/11/24

US renewable diesel imports fall, spot liquidity stalls

US renewable diesel imports fall, spot liquidity stalls

Seattle, 7 November (Argus) — The US renewable diesel import lineup for November is unusually thin as last month's equipment failure in Singapore limits loadings, while broader supply and policy uncertainty constrain both near-term liquidity and incentives to plan beyond the fourth quarter. Just two vessels carrying renewable diesel are currently expected to reach US west coast ports this month, according to tracking data from global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Clearocean Maria reached Los Angeles with about 109,000 bl from Singapore on 2 November, per Kpler, while Leikanger is due to follow on 10 November to Long Beach, California, with an additional 345,000 bl of Singaporean renewable diesel. The November lineup as of Thursday also reflected an atypical lack of both Newfoundland-origin cargoes and Jones Act vessels for domestic volume delivery to the west coast from the US Gulf. Altogether, present waterborne supply totals for this month would represent a 69pc drop from average west coast deliveries — both foreign and domestic — from January-September, to about 455,000 bl. Final October receipts are yet to be confirmed, but data aggregated from Kpler and early-month bills of lading suggest about 1.49mn bl across all west coast-bound vessels. Total volumes are subject to change as more cargoes are scheduled, or if previously listed vessels are rerouted or identified as carrying a different product. But the thinned lineup is likely the first material consequence of an equipment failure that shut down production of US-spec renewable diesel at Neste's Singapore biorefinery last month. Neste's pause in Singapore is likely to continue to stymie the flow of offshore fuel to the US west coast through the end of the year, contrary to long-held market expectation that the scheduled end of the blender's tax credit (BTC) next month would spur a flurry of imports this quarter. There remains no public timeline for a return to normal operations in Singapore, while the BTC is slated to give way to the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit for 2025-onward, with the latter's effect on future import economics yet unknown. In the meantime, tighter supply has spurred widespread supplier withdrawal from California's spot head of the pipeline (hop) R99 markets, and resultant stagnation in spot differentials has muddled even negotiations for remaining 2024 contracted volume. An absence of hop offers in Los Angeles and San Francisco prevailed across much of October, and scattered bids in the first week of November went entirely unanswered as Donald Trump's re-election introduced new uncertainty for federal incentive programs and, thus, US production and blender economics. In essence, several unknowns cloud the market's present ability to develop forward supply strategy: the fate of the BTC and terms of various proposed extensions, the role the White House's changing of the guard will play in shaping remaining 45Z guidance, and the knock-on effects on both domestic production and imports from Singapore and Newfoundland — together responsible for an average 906,000 bl/month delivered to the US west coast this year so far. By Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon plunges 31pc


07/11/24
News
07/11/24

Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon plunges 31pc

Sao Paulo, 7 November (Argus) — Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon biome plunged by around 31pc over the 12 months ending in July — the sharpest decline in over 15 years — bringing the country closer to meeting its target of eliminating deforestation in the region by 2030. Brazil lost 6,288km² (2,404mi²) of Amazon rainforest from August 2023-July 2024, a 31pc decline from 9,064km² in August 2022-July 2023, according to the science and technology ministry's national space institute INPE. The fall in deforestation marks the third consecutive decline in deforestation in the Amazon, after devastation in the region reached a multi-year high of 13,038km² in 2020-21. With the decline, deforestation in the biome reached its lowest level since 2015, when the region recorded losses of 6,207km². Deforestation fell steeply in all of the largest states in the legally defined Amazon region — known as Legal Amazon — except for Roraima, according to data compiled by the Amazon deforestation satellite monitoring system (Prodes). The Legal Amazon contains the nine states in the Amazon basin: Acre, Amapa, Amazonas, Para, Rondonia, Roraima and Tocantins, as well as most of Mato Grosso and Maranhao states. It contains all of Brazil's Amazon biome, 37pc of the cerrado tropical savanna biome and 40pc of the pantanal biome. Para state continued to lead in deforestation with 2,362km², accounting for 37.5pc of total deforestation in the biome. But this year's figure was 28pc lower than the 3,299km² in the prior period. Amazonas state posted the second largest deforestation in the period, with losses reaching 1,143km², accounting for 18pc of the total area of forest lost. Deforestation there fell by 29pc in the 2023-24 cycle from a year earlier. Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest grain-producing state, cut 1,124km² of forests, down by 45pc from the 2,048km² in the previous cycle. The government attributed the decline to increased oversight in the region, with the number of fines issued for illegal deforestation nearly doubling from 1 January 2023 — when president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office — and October this year, compared with the period between January 2019-December 2022. The government also highlighted that deforestation was down in 78pc of the 70 municipalities that were declared priority regions by the administration earlier this year. The government announced R730mn ($129mn) in funding to reduce environmental devastation in these municipalities in April. The government also reduced deforestation in the cerrado by nearly 26pc to 8,174km² in the period. That is the lowest level since 2019 and the first time deforestation in the biome has declined in four years. With the reduction in deforestation, Brazil's 2023 emissions fell by 12pc to 2.3bn tons of CO2 equivalent (t CO2e) from 2.6bn t CO2e in 2022, according to Brazilian climate think tank Observatorio do Clima. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU's Hoekstra balances divergent calls on climate


07/11/24
News
07/11/24

EU's Hoekstra balances divergent calls on climate

Brussels, 7 November (Argus) — EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, nominated again for the role, balanced conflicting calls around climate legislation in a hearing today with members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Some MEPs were in favour of tougher climate legislation, while others demanded delays to targets. Hoekstra defended key climate energy legislation, including EU CO2 reduction targets for cars and vans, while maintaining a cautious approach on expansion of the EU emissions trading system (ETS) to new sectors. Hoekstra committed to a 2026 ETS review that touches upon maritime, aviation, municipal waste and negative emissions, in response to a question from German centre-right EPP MEP Peter Liese, who has been a key parliament negotiator for ETS reforms. "Negative emissions are a cornerstone of making it to net zero. I'll absolutely look into the ramifications, whether this could be included," said Hoekstra, commissioner-designate for climate, net-zero and clean growth. If international efforts to reduce aviation emissions do not deliver, Hoekstra is also open to an ETS that equally impacts EU and international aviation. Hoekstra underlined the pivotal importance for "predictability" of legislation for industry, referencing certain firms' concern at a 12-month delay to the bloc's deforestation regulation. Hoekstra promised a "dialogue" with the car industry about sticking to CO2 standards for cars and vans and the phase-out, from 2035, of new vehicles with an internal combustion engine (ICE). Hoekstra is "all in" for ensuring the EU car industry's success. But the Dutch politician is reticent about delaying penalties for carmakers that do not meet CO2 standards from 2025. For biofuels and e-fuels, Hoekstra does not want to change current EU legislation. The EU should not open the "box that was closed" by EU legislation, notably with a 2035 phase-out that only foresees use of the ICE with non-biogenic CO2 neutral fuels. "I feel there is a bright future for biofuels. We need more, particularly in many other domains," he said, equally noting that the EU needs to "focus first and foremost on electrification". And Hoekstra could give no clear deadline for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies in the EU, but said he would do his best to create transparency on the issue. Speaking notes prepared in advance of the hearing already indicated a cautious approach to new elements in future climate policy. Hoekstra underlined the need for a "business case" for decarbonisation in agriculture and forestry, mirroring the approach taken by EU agriculture commissioner-designate Christophe Hansen. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump


06/11/24
News
06/11/24

US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump

Houston, 6 November (Argus) — Renewable identification number (RIN) credit prices ticked up slightly today following the re-election of Donald Trump and a likely Republicans control of the US Senate, but uncertainty remains for other biofuel-related markets and policies. An increase in tariffs under Trump or other policy changes to deter biofuel feedstock imports could lower the availability of renewable fuels next year. Biomass-based diesel D4 and ethanol D6 RIN credits, which make up more than 90pc of all RINs generated on a monthly basis, rose slightly early Wednesday, following upward pressure from a rise in soybean oil futures. The soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread rose to its highest level recorded in 2024 at $1.21/USG on Wednesday. RIN prices for current year D4 and D6 rose to 70.75¢/RIN, with both posting 2.5¢/RIN in gains on the day. While farm state lawmakers in both chambers are likely to resist any Trump efforts to repeal biofuels incentives, long-term prospects for the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit set to kick off in January are now uncertain. The incentive ends at the end of 2027, which gives Trump and his Republican allies substantial negotiating power over the terms of any extension — such as barring refiners from using foreign feedstocks. The election results also mean a Trump administration will have the power to set new biofuel blend mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and subsequent years. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during Trump's first term tried to strike a balance between refiner and biofuel interests, setting increasing volume mandates but issuing more waivers from program obligations. While a second Trump term could be similar, regulators under the program's "set authority" now have more discretion to weigh various economic and environmental factors when setting volumes instead of tracking mandated volumes that lapsed after 2022. Federal judges weighing EPA's authority under this new phase of the program last week expressed concern about some of the agency's decision-making, meaning any court order to rethink or reset volumes would now fall to a Trump administration. Under the Clean Air Act, which sets the framework for the RFS, refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude have a pathway to waive biofuel blending obligations if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate economic hardship." Precedent over these small refiner exemptions (SREs) affect the supply and demand balance of credits, which in turn alter the economics biofuel producers face as they rely on RIN credits as a source of revenue. From 2017-2021, the first Trump administration dialed back environmental regulations and more generously doled out SREs. During that span of time, EPA also chose not to adjust the renewable volume obligations on larger refineries to account for those that had secured waivers. This helped create an oversupply of D4, D5, and D6 credits and drove prices down to more than five-year lows. Cellulosic biofuel D3 credits in today's market also face a different set of parameters from the program's earlier years. The cellulosic waiver credit allowed producers to purchase waivers for D3 obligation given a shortage of RINs. But this mechanism changed under EPA's "set authority" and the Biden administration has brushed off a request from refiners to both lower requirements and make available waiver credits. Current year D3 prices have risen as high as 350¢/RIN this year as a result as cellulosic biofuel production trails agency expectations. A Trump administration could be more sensitive to future industry requests to relax these requirements and could set less ambitious cellulosic targets for future blend mandates. RINs are credits traded and produced by refiners and importers to show compliance with the RFS. Obligated parties can produce credits when renewable fuels are blended into conventional transportation fuels or can purchase credits from other RIN producers. By Matthew Cope and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump win could reshape US biofuels incentives


06/11/24
News
06/11/24

Trump win could reshape US biofuels incentives

New York, 6 November (Argus) — Donald Trump's return to the White House next year will give Republicans the power to rethink biofuel incentives that have spurred a boom in production under President Joe Biden. Biden-controlled agencies may try to use their final months in power to push through tax credit guidance that encourages biorefineries to do more to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. But in both the executive branch and in Congress, Republicans will soon have leverage to shift away from Democrats' recent efforts to tie biofuel incentives to climate impacts. The Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" tax credit, starting in January, will offer greater federal subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions. The Biden administration could issue long-awaited guidance spelling out how the government will calculate carbon intensities for different fuels and feedstocks, but that might just delay the inevitable. A Republican-controlled Congress could use the Congressional Review Act next year to repeal any guidance lawmakers see as too restrictive to farmers, and a Trump administration will regardless be able to develop new rules that reprioritize which companies benefit from the credit. Republicans could focus on imported feedstocks, which have surged in recent years as refiners cashed in on state clean fuel incentives by sourcing waste feedstocks primarily from Asia and South America. Farm groups, fearing that ample supply of foreign used cooking oil and tallow is curbing demand for domestic biofuel feedstocks like soybean oil, have pushed for the US government to restrict refiners using foreign feedstocks from claiming 45Z. An outright ban has legal risks, but Trump officials could think more creatively around deterring feedstock imports – potentially through guidance that is generous to crop-based fuels or that imposes carbon penalties on feedstocks that travel long distances to reach the US. Expected tariff hikes on foreign imports could alone curb demand for global biofuel feedstocks, with Chinese used cooking oil a likely target. But products like Brazilian tallow and Canadian canola oil potentially could be affected as well. Congress could also complicate the tax picture before Trump takes office. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said before the election Tuesday that he expects a proposal to extend the $1/USG blenders tax credit for biomass-based diesel another year to feature in an end-of-year package. Current bill language would not repeal 45Z but would allow fuel to claim whichever incentive offers the larger benefit, likely boosting crop-based diesels set to earn much less than $1/USG under 45Z. There is no guarantee a lame duck Congress will take up such a proposal, especially with various other policy priorities on lawmakers' agendas. But expiring biofuel credits could feature in negotiations, including a blenders credit for sustainable aviation fuel and a credit that benefits cellulosic ethanol producers, biofuel lobbyists said. A potential vehicle for longer-lasting policy changes is an expected fight in Congress next year over tax policy. Republicans, hoping to pay for extending Trump-era tax cuts that would otherwise expire, could do so by repealing Inflation Reduction Act incentives. But farm state lawmakers, especially in a House of Representatives that looks like it will be closely contested between Republicans and Democrats, would also have leverage to push for some federal biofuel incentives to remain, even if they look different than the current 45Z mechanism. Importantly too, the 45Z incentive is set to expire after 2027. Whether details are hashed out in Congress this year, next year, or afterwards, Trump and his allies will be able to tie any credit extension to desired policy objectives. There are two bills in Congress that would extend the credit into the 2030s, but the only one with Republican support bars foreign feedstocks from qualifying. Federal momentum around boosting biofuels in a second Trump term will also depend on how policies beyond tax credits develop. Increasingly ambitious state climate policies – such as California's low-carbon fuel standard, which could be made more stringent this week – could keep planned renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel capacity additions on track. At the same time, retaliatory tariffs from China could hurt farmers more than higher domestic biofuel sector demand helps. And Trump could use planned updates to federal renewable fuel blend mandates to either assuage biofuel producers struggling to plan around policy uncertainty or to lower compliance costs for oil groups that strongly backed his candidacy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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