News
13/06/25
Opec+ output rises by 360,000 b/d in May
London, 13 June (Argus) — Crude production by Opec+ members with output targets
rose by 360,000 b/d last month, driven by Saudi Arabia and South Sudan, Argus
estimates. Output rose to 34.33mn b/d in May, the highest in 15 months and
760,000 b/d above six months ago. But it was still 70,000 b/d below the group's
collective target for the month. Further increases are on the way. Eight Opec+
members — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and
Kazakhstan — began unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" additional cuts in April
with an initial increase of 137,000 b/d. They followed this by tripling the
scheduled monthly increases to 411,000 b/d for May, June and July . If they
continue at this rate, the group could fully unwind its cuts by October, 11
months earlier than planned. The decisions to return more oil to an increasingly
uncertain market took observers by surprise, particularly given subdued oil
prices and the bleak economic outlook driven by US president Donald Trump's
tariff policies. The group says the output rises are based on "healthy market
fundamentals" and "low oil inventories". But the eight members have also
stressed the actual output increases will be partially offset by members that
have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. This is now being borne out.
The eight members boosted their combined output by 190,000 b/d in May — less
than the 411,000 b/d increase to their collective target for the month. Russia
and Iraq are key reasons for the lower output, with both having pledged to
compensate for significant past overproduction. Iraq kept its output flat at
3.94mn b/d — 110,000 b/d below its May target. While this was still 30,000 b/d
above the country's target under the latest publicly available compensation plan
, it marks a big improvement on previous months. Russia's output also remained
unchanged at 8.98mn b/d, 100,000 b/d below its target and 20,000 b/d below its
compensation-related target. The UAE also made considerable compensation effort.
The country's output fell by 10,000 b/d to 2.93mn b/d — 70,000 b/d below its
compensation-related target. And while Saudi Arabia increased its output by a
hefty 140,000 b/d, this was 50,000 b/d below its target for the month. The
country is expected to be the main driver of the alliance's output increases in
the coming months, particularly given that it does not have any
compensation-related cuts to make. The outlier Kazakhstan continues to stick out
like a sore thumb, with its output still at near-record levels. The country's
production rose by 10,000 b/d to 1.83mn b/d in May — 340,000 b/d above its
target for the month and a whopping 460,000 b/d above its compensation-related
target. Kazakhstan is not expected to make any meaningful production cuts in the
coming months. A large part of the alliance's wider output increase was driven
by South Sudan, which resumed exports of Dar Blend in late April. Production of
the grade was shut in for more than a year owing to problems affecting the
pipeline that carries the crude to war-torn Sudan's Bashayer terminal on the Red
Sea. The resumption of flows boosted output to 150,000 b/d in May, the highest
since March 2024. Another notable boost came from Iran which, like Venezuela and
Libya, is exempt from output targets. Iran's production rose by 30,000 b/d to
3.42mn b/d — the highest since August 2018, when the country's output began to
fall owing to the reimposition of sanctions by Trump during his first term.
Venezuela's output fell by 30,000 b/d to 930,000 b/d. Further output falls are
around the corner , with the US tightening sanctions on the South American
country. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ±
target Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Non-Opec 9 12.82 12.71 12.76 +0.06 Total
Opec+ 18 34.33 33.97 34.40 -0.07 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes
compensation cuts Opec wellhead production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target
Saudi Arabia 9.15 9.01 9.20 -0.05 Iraq 3.94 3.94 4.05 -0.11 Kuwait 2.43 2.40
2.44 -0.01 UAE 2.94 2.95 3.02 -0.08 Algeria 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.00 Nigeria 1.58
1.55 1.50 +0.08 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.27 0.25 0.28 -0.01 Gabon 0.22 0.20 0.17
+0.05 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.05 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Iran
3.42 3.39 na na Libya 1.38 1.34 na na Venezuela 0.93 0.96 na na Total Opec 12^
27.24 26.95 na na *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation
cuts ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec
crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Russia 8.98 8.98 9.08
-0.10 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.77 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.45 0.45 0.55 -0.10 Kazakhstan 1.83
1.82 1.49 +0.34 Malaysia 0.36 0.35 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02
Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.15 0.06 0.12
+0.03 Total non-Opec 12.82 12.71 12.76 0.06 *revised †includes additional cuts
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