Brazil ups outlook for 2023-24 crop to 299mn t

Market: Agriculture
11/07/24

Brazil raised the outlook for its 2023-24 grain and oilseed crops for the third consecutive month in July, driven by favorable weather supporting the second corn crop.

National supply company Conab now expects 2023-24 output at 299.3mn metric tonnes (t), up by 1.7mn t from a month ago. But the projection for the current cycle is 6.4pc — or 20.5mn t — below the record 319.8mn t in 2022-23, following the negative effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon over main producing states earlier in the season.

The 2023-24 crop is set to yield 3,752 kg/hectare (ha), 7.9pc below the 4,072 kg/ha in the last cycle. That also compares with the 3,739 kg/ha forecast in June.

Estimated sowed area expanded by 170,200ha to 79.8mn ha this month, which is a 1mn ha tumble from the prior season's acreage.

Corn crop leads monthly gain

Conab expects Brazil to produce over 115.9mn t of corn in 2023-24, including the country's first, second and third crops.

Estimated volumes rose by 1.8mn t from the previous estimate of 114.1mn t, as the average yield outlook increased to 5,553 kg/ha from 5,478 kg/ha and the projection for planted area was up by 25,000ha to 20.9mn ha.

The 2022-23 corn crop produced a record 131.9mn t, with 22.3mn ha sowed and average yields of 5,923 kg/ha.

The 2023-24 second corn crop — also known as the winter crop — accounted for most of the upwards revision this month. The production forecast rose to 90mn t from 88.1mn t, but remained below the 2022-23 crop's 102.4mn t record.

Expected yields rose to 5,556 kg/ha from 5,478 kg/ha in June. That is also 6.7pc below the prior cycle's yields. As for planted area, the forecast increased by 47,000ha and was maintained at almost 16.2mn ha. The 2022-23 second corn crop was sowed in 17.2mn ha.

The summer corn cycle — also known as the first crop — is set to reach almost 23.4mn t, down by nearly 180,000t from a month prior and 3.9mn t below the last season.

The estimate for acreage decreased by 23,900ha, but remains at around 4mn ha, approximately 438,000ha below the 2022-23 planted area. Projected yields dropped to 5,852 kg/ha from 5,862 kg/ha, also down from last season's 6,160 kg/ha.

The outlook for the third corn crop — sowed exclusively in northern and northeastern states — continues at 2.4mn t, surpassing the prior cycle by 254,800t. Planted area is now set to reach 657,800ha, up by 2,800ha from the prior month's estimate and 632,500ha in 2022-23. The outlook for yields was down to 3,663 kg/ha from 3,670 kg/ha but is 7.5pc up on the year.

Soybean output decreases slightly

Brazil's 2023-24 soybean crop is set to total approximately 147.3mn t, following a 16,900t reduction from a month ago.

That is a 4.7pc drop from the 2022-23 season's record of 154.6mn t, but the cycle remains on track to be the second largest crop in the country's history.

The monthly output decrease reflects damage caused by floods in the Rio Grande do Sul state, which reduced its outlook by 540,000t to 19.7mn t. Losses were then mostly offset by an upwards revision in Para state, where higher yields and an increase in expected area rose the output forecast to almost 4.1mn t.

National average yields are now estimated at 3,202 kg/ha, down from 3,205 kg/ha in June and 3,507 kg/ha in 2022-23.

Conab projects that the 2023-24 soybean crop was sowed at a record of 46mn ha, compared with 44.1mn ha in the prior cycle.

Wheat, cotton down

Brazil's 2024 wheat production is now set to total almost 9mn t, down by 109,500t on the month and 859,000t above last year's output.

Yields are down to 2,917 kg/ha from 2,945 kg/ha, while the expected planted area continues at approximately 3.1mn ha. That compares with 2,331 kg/ha and almost 3.5mn ha in 2023.

The monthly downwards revision was driven by a lower outlook in Goias state, which struggled with excessive rainfall in the beginning of the cycle, fungal diseases and most recently water stress during the grain filling stage of crops.

The forecast for 2023-24 cotton lint fell by 20,900t and is now at 3.6mn t, which is 462,900t — or 14.6pc — above the prior season's output.

The yearly increase is driven by a higher expected acreage of 1.9mn ha, almost 17pc above the 2022-23 season and roughly stable from a month ago. Yields were down to 1,870kg/ha from 1,881kg/ha in June, which is 2pc below the prior season.

Corn, soybean exports stable

Conab continues to project 2023-24 corn exports to total 33.5mn t, despite an increase in expected production.

Volumes remain below the 54.6mn t shipped in the prior cycle.

But the outlook of domestic consumption rose to 84.3mn t from almost 84.2mn t a month ago — about 5.7pc above the prior season — led by a record demand from the corn ethanol and animal feed sectors.

Soybean exports also continue set to reach 92.4mn t, down from almost 101.9mn t of soybeans exported in the 2022-23 season.

By Nathalia Giannetti

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

17/04/25

Canada grants tariff relief to automakers

Pittsburgh, 17 April (Argus) — The Canadian government will allow automakers to circumvent retaliatory tariffs to continue importing US-assembled vehicles if the companies keep making cars in Canada. Canada began taxing imports of US-made vehicles and parts on 9 April at a 25pc rate in response to a similar tariff the US had implemented. Canada's tariff on vehicle imports from the US will not apply to car companies that keep their Canadian plants running, the country's finance minister said this week. The measure attempts to prevent closures of auto plants and layoffs in the Canadian automotive sector that the US tariffs threaten to cause. Automaker Stellantis paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant in early April to evaluate the US tariff on vehicle imports. The plant will re-open on 22 April, Stellantis said. General Motors also plans to reduce production of its electric delivery fan at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. The slowdown will result in layoffs of 500 workers, the Unifor union said. The automotive industry in the US, Canada and Mexico has struggled to adapt its supply chains to the new tariffs because the US, Canada Mexico free trade agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor helped establish an interconnected North American auto sector. In another measure, companies in Canada will get a six-month reprieve from tariffs on imports from the US used in manufacturing, food and beverage packaging. The six-month relief also applies to items Canada imports from the US used in the health care, public safety and national security sectors. "We're giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on US suppliers," finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

17/04/25

News

17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Argentina FX change, return of tax to spur exports

14/04/25

News

14/04/25

Argentina FX change, return of tax to spur exports

Sao Paulo, 14 April (Argus) — Argentinian farmers will likely boost exports of soybeans, corn and other products in coming months after the government loosened foreign exchange controls and President Javier Milei said export taxes will rise again at the end of June. Those two factors, combined with better weather conditions for soybean and corn harvesting should spur sales, according to Javier Preciado Patiño, director of RIA Consultores. The Argentinian peso is expected to weaken with the new exchange rules, which will move it from trading with a narrow peg to the dollar to moving within a wider, slowly expanding, range against the US currency. A weaker currency will increase the number of pesos Argentinian farmers receive in exchange for products priced in dollars, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. The new rules also get rid of a special exchange rate for exporters that left farmers with less money for their sales abroad, which will also encourage producers to sell. Milei announced the exchange rule changes on 11 April and they went into effect today. As a result, the value of the peso weakened through out the day, losing 11pc relative to the US dollar. Argentina has gone through a series of complicated exchange rate regimes over the years intended to prevent a rapid devaluation of the peso, keep dollars from flowing out of the country and allow the country's central bank to maintain enough dollar reserves to meet debt servicing needs and import necessary goods. Looming tax increase Milei's announcement today that a temporary tax reduction on ag exports will end as expected in June should also push farmers to sell more of their crops in the next few months. Until this morning, many people in the farming sector had hoped that the tax cut initiated by the government in January would be extended, or that duties would be eliminated altogether . But Milei confirmed the end of the tax cut in June during a radio interview today. The temporary cuts, which reduced the tax on soybeans to 26pc from 33pc, cut soybean product taxes to 24.5pc from 31pc, and trimmed the levy on corn, wheat, barley and sorghum to 9.5pc from 12pc, will revert to their previous levels, the president said. "Let farmers know that if they want to sell, they should sell now, because the taxes will return" as scheduled, he said. Argentinian governments have for years taxed exports of agricultural products, taking advantage of the country's status as a farming giant to raise much-needed funds, but also reducing farmers' incomes. Waterlogged fields Improved weather is also expected to boost sales, especially for soybeans, in the next few weeks. Argentina's soybean harvest got off to a slow start about two weeks ago because steady rains in many areas had left fields and rural roads too soggy for farm equipment to enter. Sunny weather in recent days has helped dry fields out, and farmers in those areas will want to pick up the pace to take advantage of improved conditions to make up for lost time, according to Patiño. The improving pace of harvest is expected to provide farmers ample supplies to sell in the coming weeks, allowing them to exploit of the advantageous currency situation. By Jeffrey T. Lewis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US winter wheat declines as rain misses key regions

14/04/25

News

14/04/25

US winter wheat declines as rain misses key regions

St Louis, 14 April (Argus) — A lack of rain worsened the US winter wheat crop outlook over the week ending 13 April, with crop conditions falling in four of the top five states. Portions of eastern Kansas, as well as western South Dakota and North Dakota did receive rain in the week following the previous US Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop conditions update. However, those areas primarily received a quarter of an inch or less of precipitation, according to US National Weather Service data, providing minimal support to the developing US winter wheat crop. As a result, the share of US winter wheat area rated in good to excellent condition fell 1 percentage point over the week, down to 47pc. Of the top five US winter wheat producing states, crop conditions fell the most in Kansas. The state, which accounts for 22pc of total US winter wheat planted acres, saw the share of acres rated in good-to-excellent condition decline 8 percentage points from the prior week, to 43pc. Despite the decline, the Kansas remained 5 percentage points above the five-year average. However, the crop emerged early this year due to warmer than typical temperatures and has developed quickly. As of 13 April, 46pc of the crop was reported in the jointing phase, 12 percentage points ahead of the five-year average, according to USDA data. In the next two weeks portions of the crop will begin to develop its grain producing head, making additional precipitation critical. In addition to Kansas, winter wheat crop condition also declined in Texas, Colorado, and Nebraska. Of the top five wheat producing states, Montana was the exception with the state's winter wheat good-to-excellent ratio remaining flat with the prior week at 59pc, 13 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Looking at the week ahead, rain is forecast across the entirety of the US high plains region. Portions of central and eastern Kansas are projected to receive an inch of rain or more, according to the US National Weather Service, adding a much-needed boost to the state's wheat crop outlook. Other portions of the region are expected to receive a quarter of an inch at most, but any additional precipitation at this point in the year will bring a boost to the crop's outlook. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Funding cuts could delay US river lock work: Correction

14/04/25

News

14/04/25

Funding cuts could delay US river lock work: Correction

Corrects lock locations in paragraph 5. Houston, 14 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennessee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock on the Illinois River; Lock 25 on the Mississippi River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more