US June inflation slows to 1-year low of 3pc

Market: Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
11/07/24

US inflation slowed in June to the lowest in a year while core inflation hit a more than three-year low, signs of easing price pressures that may prompt Federal Reserve policymakers to begin cutting borrowing costs in the fall.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 3pc in June, lower than economists' estimates for a 3.1pc reading, from 3.3pc in May and 3.4pc in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.3pc in June, the lowest since April 2021, and slowing from 3.4pc in May.

The energy index rose by an annual 1pc in June, down from 3.7pc in May, while the gasoline index contracted by 2.5pc in June compared with a 2.2pc gain in May. Energy services rose by an annual 4.3pc, slowing from 4.7pc the prior month.

After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled an 81pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate by a quarter point in September from near 70pc odds Wednesday. Probabilities of three quarter point cuts by December rose to 38pc today from 26pc the prior day.

Food costs rose by 2.2pc in June from 2.1pc the prior month. Shelter rose by 5.2pc from 5.4pc the prior month. Transportation services rose by 9.4pc in June following a 10.5pc gain the prior month. Airline fares fell by 5.1pc in June after a 5.9pc decline.

Headline inflation had risen from 3.1pc in January to as high as 3.5pc in March as economic data, especially job gains, had come in stronger than expected. That had prompted the Federal Reserve to delay widely expected rate cuts as it said it needed "greater confidence" that inflation was on a "sustained" path towards its 2pc target.

The Fed hiked its target rate to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc in July 2023 and has kept it there since to rein in inflation that hit a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. The Fed, in its latest policy meeting last month, penciled in one likely quarter point cut this year, down from three penciled in last March.

CPI contracted by a seasonally adjusted 0.1pc in June from the prior month, after a flat reading in May, a 0.3pc monthly gain in April and 0.4pc gains in February and Marhc. Core CPI was up by 0.1pc for the month after a monthly gain of 0.2pc in May.

By Bob Willis

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21/01/25

Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update 2

Updates with details throughout Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump today signed an executive order declaring a "national energy emergency" and said he plans to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on 1 February. Returning to the White House for a second term, Trump signed a series of executive orders on energy and trade that he said will restore "common sense" to US policy. His orders aim to expedite permitting of energy infrastructure, tackle inflation, roll back climate programs put in place under former president Joe Biden and pursue a "drill, baby, drill" energy policy. In declaring a national energy emergency, Trump's order contends the Biden administration left a "precariously inadequate and intermittent energy supply, and an increasingly unreliable grid" that required swift action. Trump also froze all federal regulations, placed a temporary hold on hiring non-military federal workers, rescinded 78 Biden executive actions and memoranda and began rolling back Biden's climate legacy. "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally held after his second inaugural ceremony. Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under Biden — and revoke an "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump also vowed to begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and reiterated his support for tariffs, which he sees as a way to raise government revenue and support domestic manufacturing. "Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump said. They are "going to bring our country's businesses back that left us". While Trump is reiterating his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, oil industry officials have warned such a move could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. Trump stopped short of promised to erect tariffs on all US imports, saying: "We're not ready for that." On foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a claim that Panamanian president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected. "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said during his second inaugural address. Trump signed an order to ease drilling restrictions in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, while also prioritizing the development of the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export terminal. Trump also said he wants to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which is at 55pc of its capacity with 394mn bl of crude in storage, "right to the top". Refilling the SPR would require the US Congress to appropriate $32bn at current prices, to offset the costs of canceling 100mn bl of upcoming mandatory crude sales and buying about 300mn bl of crude. Trump signed an order to rescind a series of climate-related orders Biden had issued, measures the new administration says places "undue burdens" on energy production. And he imposed a temporary moratorium on leasing acreage in federal waters for wind projects. "We're not going to do the wind thing," Trump said. That drew an outcry from offshore wind advocacy group Turn Forward, whose executive director Hillary Bright said an emergency should require unleashing "all necessary sources of American energy — including offshore wind". During his campaign, Trump promised to cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel. After being sworn in, Trump formally nominated his cabinet members, leaving it up to the Republican-controlled US Senate to hold confirmation votes. Trump also named Republicans to lead 15 independent agencies. Trump named Mark Christie as chairman of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Mark Uyeda as acting chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission; and Patrick Fuchs as chair of the US Surface Transportation Board. Caroline Pham became acting chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission through a vote of its members. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update

21/01/25

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21/01/25

Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update

Updates with changes throughout Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" as one of the first acts of his second term in office and has signed a series of executive orders designed to bring down energy costs, including pulling the US out of the Paris climate agreement. The executive orders on energy, trade and other issues will restore "common sense" in US policy, Trump said during his second inaugural address, moments after being sworn in at the US Capitol. The executive orders and emergency declaration are intended to expedite permitting of energy infrastructure, tackle inflation, roll back climate programs put in place under former president Joe Biden and pursue what Trump says is a policy to "drill, baby, drill". Trump signed his first set of executive orders during a rally tonight with supporters and plans to sign more orders later tonight at the White House. The first executive orders will implement an "immediate regulation freeze", put a temporary hold on hiring workers and rescind 78 of Biden's executive actions and memoranda. Trump also signed a directive to federal agencies to take steps to reduce the cost-of-living, along with a separate order that will withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord for a second time. "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally later in the day. "The United States will not sabotage their own industries while China pollutes with impunity." Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under Biden — and revoke an "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump also vowed to begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and reiterated his support for tariffs, which he sees as a way to raise government revenue and support domestic manufacturing. "Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump said. They are "going to bring our country's businesses back that left us." But it remains unclear if Trump will move ahead with his threatened 25pc tariff against Canada that oil industry officials have said could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. On foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that Panamanian president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said. Trump is expected to take action soon to restart licensing of US LNG export terminals and support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump said he wants the US to take advantage of its vast oil and gas reserves, which he said would reduce energy prices and increase energy exports. Trump also said he wants to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which is at 55pc of its capacity with 394mn bl of crude in storage, "right to the top". Refilling the SPR would require the US Congress to appropriate $32bn at current prices, to offset the costs of canceling 100mn bl of upcoming mandatory crude sales and buying about 300mn bl of crude. Trump has yet to specify which parts of Biden's climate legislation he will work to overturn, which also would require congressional action. But the White House said the administration would consider rescinding all federal rules that put "undue burdens" on energy producers and stop leasing federal land to wind farms. "We're not going to do the wind thing," Trump said. That drew an outcry from offshore wind advocacy group Turn Forward, whose executive director Hillary Bright said an emergency should require unleashing "all necessary sources of American energy — including offshore wind." During his campaign, Trump promised to cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel. After being sworn in, Trump formally nominated his cabinet members, leaving it up to the Republican-controlled US Senate to hold confirmation votes. Trump also named Republicans to lead 15 independent agencies. Trump named Mark Christie as chairman of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Mark Uyeda as acting chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission,and Patrick Fuchs as chair of the US Surface Transportation Board. Caroline Pham became acting chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission through a vote of its members. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'

20/01/25

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20/01/25

Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'

Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump, within minutes of being sworn in for a second term in office, pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" and sign executive orders to expand drilling, block electric vehicle regulations and end the climate policies of his predecessor. In his second inaugural address delivered inside the rotunda of the US Capitol, Trump vowed to put "America first" and make the US "greater, stronger and far more exceptional than ever before". Trump said he will sign a raft of executive orders to restore "common sense" in US policy, including a directive for his administration to "defeat" inflation by increasing drilling and rolling back climate-related policies. "The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency," Trump said. "We will drill, baby, drill." It remains unclear if Trump will take action soon on his plan to pursue across-the-board import tariffs, or a threatened 25pc tariff against Canada that oil industry officials have said could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. Trump said today he would immediately begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and to start to "tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens". In an often-dark, bellicose address reminiscent of his "American carnage" speech eight years ago, the 47th president of the US promised to "reverse the horrible betrayal" and "give the people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy and, indeed ,their freedom. "From this moment on, America's decline is over," Trump declared. In foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said. Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. US interior secretary nominee Doug Burgum, at a confirmation hearing last week, said emergency action was needed because of a looming "crisis" with the electric grid that he said could result in higher prices and slowing the growth of artificial intelligence data centers. Trump is expected to take action soon to restart licensing of US LNG export terminals and support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Trump said he wanted the US to take advantage of its vast oil and gas reserves, which he said would reduce energy prices, increase energy exports and refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which now holds 394mn bl of crude and is at 55pc of its capacity, "right to the top". Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under former president Joe Biden — and revoke a federal "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump has yet to specify which parts of Biden's climate legislation he will overturn, but the White House said the administration intends to consider rescinding all federal regulations that impose "undue burdens" on energy production, end leasing of federal land to wind farms and roll back energy efficiency standards for consumer goods. The White House also said Trump will once again pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement. During his campaign, Trump promised he would cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel, and other tech industry billionaires. Florida governor Ron Desantis (R). Indiana governor Mike Braun (R) and other top Republicans watched the inauguration remotely. Former president Joe Biden today issued pardons to former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff retired Gen. Mark Milley, key medical adviser during the Covid-19 pandemic Anthony Fauci, leaders of the committee that investigated Trump's actions leading up to the 6 January 2020 attack on the US Capitol, and members of his own family. Biden said those he pardoned did nothing wrong but worried they could face "baseless and politically motivated investigations". By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Why EVs hold the key to the next US election

20/01/25

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20/01/25

Viewpoint: Why EVs hold the key to the next US election

London, 20 January (Argus) — While the inauguration of President Donald Trump may have sent a shudder through the boardrooms of electric vehicle (EV) producers, boosting the US EV market during his term may be the best way to keep Republicans in the White House in 2028. President Trump has been highly critical of the EV market in previous years, and aims to abolish the $7,500 consumer tax credit for EVs. Despite this, a combination of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), corporate tax breaks, support for Tesla owner Elon Musk and, counter-intuitively, an oil boom, could herald the start of the good years for the US EV market. And a Trump administration would be foolish to resist it. IRA boosts key swing states Donald Trump ran on a manufacturing ticket. Among his slogans were "drill baby drill" and an evolution of the MAGA tagline: "Make America Greater Than Ever Before". That second slogan cannot be achieved without manufacturing the technologies of the future, including EVs, and thanks to former president Joe Biden those jobs might land in key areas for the 2028 campaign. The US EV market has had a slow start to the latest phase of expansion, lagging behind as Europe and China boomed in 2022-2023. This changed last year, as US EV sales in 2024 rose by 7.2pc and totalled 1.3mn, according to Cox Automotive. Momentum is starting to build. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed under Biden's tenure has become a catalyst for EV investment, much of it in key swing states and red states. This makes it unlikely the Trump administration will roll back any of the government money allocated to projects since the IRA was passed. In a study from August 2024, US clean energy think-tank E2 discovered nearly 60pc of the announced projects under the IRA are based in Republican congressional districts. Of all new projects, Republican districts represent 85pc of investment and 68pc of jobs. Of the top 20 congressional districts for clean energy investments, 19 are held by Republicans. The largest of these investments so far, Toyota's $13.9bn EV production plant, is in the key swing state North Carolina, which Trump won by a 183,000 vote margin in 2024. The Toyota plant will create up to 5,000 jobs, most of which are due to start during Trump's second term. Other swing states have multiple projects supported by the IRA. Michigan, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas and North Carolina have over 20, while Ohio, Tennessee, California, New York, Indiana and Arizona have more than 10. Most of the states with multiple projects are key marginals which were pivotal for a Trump victory in 2024, except California and New York. Unfortunately for Biden, the benefits of his flagship legislation were too late to save the presidency for the Democrats, but they may benefit Republicans next time around. Big tech and big oil The new Trump administration is filled with contradictions, which are likely to expand into open conflict. Nowhere is this more evident than the contrast between interests of Tesla founder Elon Musk and Trump's "drill baby drill" policy. Although Musk has rolled back some his more fervent views on climate change, he still supports a transition to EVs, led by Tesla. His competition in the oil industry have also started to shift their policies on electrification. Both ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco, two leading oil majors, have announced investments into lithium extraction over the last year. Trump's promised tax cuts and oil licence bonanza may give them a windfall of cash just at the point that oil executives are looking to put money into the electric transition. Despite his pro-fossil fuel rhetoric, Trump may leave office having presided over an increasingly green America. By Thomas Kavanagh EV sales in the US, by carmaker ('000s) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Sharp increase in Italian Pome imports continue

20/01/25

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20/01/25

Sharp increase in Italian Pome imports continue

Barcelona, 20 January (Argus) — An increase in Italian imports of palm oil mill effluent (Pome) continued in November, according to customs data. The rise came ahead of any impact from Indonesia's decision to suspend export permits for Pome and used cooking oil (UCO). Italian Pome imports under the 15220099 import code rose to 205,000t in January-November from 65,000t on the year. There is some lack of clarity on whether imports have increased or suppliers have improved adherence to import codes. November imports more than doubled on the year to over 12,000t (see chart) . According to Kpler data, cargoes of Pome — from Indonesia and Malaysia — continued to arrive in December and January at Italian ports that are home to hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production. Italian HVO output was reduced in the second half of the year by margins described as the worst on record . This appears to have encouraged Eni and other regional producers to undertake some planned works and trim throughput. Kpler data show five seaborne cargoes totalling 30,000t leaving integrated Eni's 650,000 t/yr Gela HVO unit in October-December. This compares with around 90,000t shipped in the second quarter, 85,000t in the second and 70,000t in the first. Italian imports of palm oil continued to fall, with 915,000t imported in January-November, down by 16pc on the year, and the lowest in eight years. Industrial-use palm oil fell by 30pc year on year to 510,000t. Given previous Argus tracking, Kpler, shipping and port data it is highly likely that part of this decline in industrial palm oil is actually the correct coding of Pome. While Pome imports increased, deliveries of fatty acid distillates (Pfad) were lower by 24pc on the year to just under 510,000t in January-November. Some mislabelling of Pome as Pfad may also occur. Italian imports of UCO fell to 55,000t in the first 11 months of last year from 80,000t on the year. There may also be some mislabelling in this market. With Italy using significant volumes of Pome in biofuels production there may be some uncertainty over the impact of recent proposed changes in export permit allowances by Indonesia. This could support alternative feedstock procurement. Eni said previously it was aiming for 100,000t of alternative feedstock supply from its own initiatives last year. Italy's total castor oil imports were 20,000t in January-November of which 6,500t came from Eni's cultivation in Kenya. None arrived in November. Cottonseed oils from Kenya were lower at 5,000t in January-November, with no arrivals since August. Eni has said it plans alternative feedstock cultivation in several other African, Asia-Pacific countries and Italy, but production volumes remain opaque. By Adam Porter Italy biofuels feedstock 000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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