India, SE Asia demand lift Indonesian May coal exports

Market: Coal
15/07/24

Indonesian coal exports rose in May from a year earlier, led by higher demand from India and southeast Asia.

The country exported 46.27mn t of coal in May, up by 6.6pc from a year earlier and by 3.9pc from April, customs data show. The data include all types of coal, such as thermal and coking coal.

Indonesia exported about 222mn t of coal in January-May, up from 212mn t a year earlier. The country could export 532.59mn t this year if the current production run rate of 44.37mn t/month is maintained over the next seven months, according to Argus calculations based on customs data. Indonesia exported 521.10mn t last year.

The year-on-year increase in May exports was supported mainly by higher demand from India, the world's second-largest coal importer, as utilities lifted their import purchases to replenish stocks for the summer season. Shipments to India in May rose by about 19pc on the year to 10.1mn t, according to the data, although exports slipped from 11.34mn t in April. The steady growth in Indian coal-fired generation, which hit an all-time high in May, continued to support demand for imported coal. The country's overall coal-fired generation, which meets most of the country's power requirements, rose to 119.53TWh, from 106.03TWh a year earlier, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority. Coal-fired generation in May was also higher than 116.5TWh in April, supported by increased power consumption caused by higher air-conditioning usage during the summer heatwaves.

Indonesian exports also rose to cater for greater demand from southeast Asia. Exports to the region in May rose by 15.5pc on the year and by 1.5pc from April to 11.19mn t. This was led by a steady rise in exports to Vietnam, where shipments grew by 47pc on the year and by about 17pc on the month to 3.34mn t in May. Demand was led by utilities as coal-fired generation reached a probable record high of 17.08TWh in May, as per Argus calculations based on data from state-owned utility EVN. Vietnamese coal imports reached 6.50mn t in May, up from 4.97mn t a year earlier and from 5.90mn t in April, provisional customs data show.

Shipments to China, the world's largest coal importer, accounted for nearly 40pc of Indonesian exports at 18.44mn t, down from 18.82mn t a year earlier but up from 15.57mn t in April. The year-on-year decline was caused by Chinese utilities being less aggressive this year in purchasing seaborne cargoes because of subdued thermal power generation. China's thermal power generation, which mainly uses coal, fell to 454TWh in May from 471TWh a year earlier and 459TWh in April, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. China's imports of thermal coal — including non-coking bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal and lignite — totalled 32.7mn t, down from 31.4mn t a year earlier and from 32.9mn t in April, Chinese customs data show.

Output rises

A rise in Indonesian coal production supported higher exports in January-May. Output during the period rose to 334mn t, from 314mn t a year earlier, according to data from the country's energy ministry, ESDM.

But output in June may have eased on the year to 54mn t, taking the year-to-date tally to about 388mn t, up by 2.1pc from a year earlier. The data will probably be revised, as output is frequently reviewed in Indonesia because of a lag in some producers' reporting.

Indonesian output could face pressure from heavy rains in parts of the key coal-producing Kalimantan region, while production cutbacks could also affect overall production. Some coal producers could trim output in response to ongoing low prices in the international market. Argus on 12 July assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $52.07/t fob Kalimantan, the lowest level since mid-September 2023. The price is down sharply from the 2023 peak of $90.41/t in January last year.

Lower output could dent the export trajectory. Coal exports in June were estimated at 39.82mn t, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler. Exports in June last year stood at 39.02mn t, according to customs data, and at 38.72mn t, per Kpler's estimates.

By Saurabh Chaturvedi

Indonesian coal exports mn t

Indonesia coal exports by destination, Jan-May mn t

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