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Mexico 2Q GDP data, surveys point to slower economy

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Metals
  • 02/08/24

Private-sector analysts have lowered estimates for Mexico's 2024 and 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth while raising inflation forecasts for both years, the central bank said Thursday.

For a fourth consecutive month, the survey's median forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 declined, with analysts polled lowering growth estimates to 1.8pc for 2024 from 2pc in last month's survey. The 2025 growth forecast slipped to 1.61pc from 1.78pc.

The shift in forecasts arrives on the heels of preliminary second quarter GDP data, posted by statistics agency Inegi 30 July, showing the economy grew by an annual 2.2pc in the second quarter, up from 1.6pc in the first quarter but slowing from 3.5pc in the second quarter 2023.

The central bank's 2024 GDP estimate was lower than a 2.4pc estimate from Mexican bank Banorte.

Median projections for end-2024 inflation in the central bank's private-sector survey for July moved to 4.58pc from 4.23pc, with end-2025 projections rising to 3.83pc from 3.76pc in the June survey.

The central bank cited higher risks to inflation from a weakening peso and a potentially severe hurricane season in its latest monetary policy decision on 27 June when it held its target interest rate at 11pc. The peso weakened above 19 pesos to the US dollar Friday for the first time since January 2023, extending the losses triggered after 2 June elections that effectively erased congressional opposition to the progressive Morena party. It has weakened from 16.3 pesos to the dollar early April, its strongest level in more than eight years.

Growth in the industrial sector grew by an annual 1.9pc in the second quarter from 0.9pc in the first quarter, while services grew by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 2.1pc in the prior quarter, according to the latest GDP report. Agriculture contracted by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 0.6pc growth in the first quarter.

"The economy's exceptional momentum in previous years may be running out of steam," said Mexican bank Banorte in a note on the GDP report.

Banorte noted uncertainty in manufacturing, "although some of the early nearshoring-related investments could begin to result into more production. In addition, the auto sector remains strong, key to driving the category forward."

The downtrend is supported by comments from ratings agency Moody's out this week, predicting a "substantial slowdown" in the second half of 2024.


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24/06/25

Cheaper power key to reach UK’s climate targets

Cheaper power key to reach UK’s climate targets

Edinburgh, 24 June (Argus) — The UK's climate plan credibility has improved slightly but no progress has been made to make electricity cheaper, which is key to hit the country's emissions targets, independent advisory body Climate Change Committee (CCC) said in its progress report. The report assesses the UK's progress towards its net zero goals under the current government, which took power in July 2024. The CCC found the UK's 2050 target remains reachable but climate action needs to accelerate, even though policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions have improved. Only half of the 16 key indicators assessed by the CCC, with a relevant benchmark or target, are on track — including offshore and onshore wind operational capacity, sustainable aviation fuel, electric vehicle (EV) charging points and distances travelled by car. EV car sales, heat pump installations, woodland creation and peatland restoration are "slightly off track", while the ratio of electricity to gas prices for households and industries is "significantly off track", the CCC said. The committee noted no progress has been made on actions to lower the cost of power. The government is planning to consult on this "in due course", but CCC urged for actions and timelines. The CCC has identified "ten priority actions" for the year ahead, with cutting the cost of electricity for households and businesses again at the top. Cheaper power will support industrial electrification and "speed up the uptake of clean electric technologies, such as heat pumps and electric vehicles," the CCC said. The transition to renewables will eventually reduce the country's reliance on volatile wholesale gas prices, which are the main driver of electricity prices, it said. "But the government can take immediate action to accelerate this by moving policy costs associated with past schemes, and those that are not directly related to the cost of electricity generation, off electricity bills," the CCC said. Removing electricity policy costs — levied on the unit price of electricity at 20 times the rate of gas — would reduce annual electricity bills by £190 ($258) for a typical household with a gas boiler and by £490 for a typical household with a heat pump, CCC found. "This would bring UK prices into the range of other countries who are ahead on heat pump roll-out," it said. The CCC report assessed policy development from July 2024 to 23 May 2025, so does not take into account policies announced in the recent spending review nor the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme intended to reduce electricity costs by up to £40/MWh for more than 7,000 electricity-intensive businesses. UK emissions reached 413.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, including its share of international aviation and shipping, down by 50pc from 1990 and by 2.5pc from 2023, according to the CCC. The year-on-year reductions come mainly from the electricity supply — declining gas generation — and the industry sector. The government will increasingly need to focus on transport, building, agriculture and aviation to reach its emission reduction targets, the CCC said. The report points to encouraging trends in EVs and in heat pump installations, which grew by 56pc on the year, and in woodland creations, but it reiterated action on these fronts must accelerate. Although much of the progress stems from policies set by previous government, the CCC said "bold policies" introduced this year are promising, such as removing planning barriers on renewable deployment and the reinstatement of the 2030 phase-out date for gasoline and diesel vehicles. The market share of new EVs increased on the year in 2024, by nearly 20pc. But CCC noted aviation sector emissions are increasing. The share of sustainable aviation fuel increased to 2.1pc last year from 0.7pc in 2023, but a lot more is required to reach the 10pc SAF mandate by 2030. By Caroline Varin Distribution of past emissions reductions and future emissions savings by sector.pdf Distribution of past emissions reductions and future emissions savings by sector Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach


24/06/25
News
24/06/25

Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach

Dubai, 24 June (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today criticised both Israel and Iran over what he said were violations of a ceasefire agreement he helped broker to end a 12-day conflict between the two countries. "We basically have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don't know what the [expletive deleted] they're doing," Trump told reporters as he left the White House for the Nato summit in The Hague. Trump said Iran fired a missile at Israel after the ceasefire deadline had passed, and that it missed its target. "Now Israel is going out," he said, adding that he was also unhappy with Israel's response. "I didn't like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn't have to unload, and I didn't like the fact that the retaliation was very strong," he said. Trump had announced that the ceasefire would begin around midnight ET on 24 June, ending nearly two weeks of hostilities that included US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of 21-22 June. Earlier today, Israel accused Iran of firing missiles after the ceasefire took effect and vowed to retaliate. Iran's military denied the claim, according to Iranian state media. Trump then took to his Truth Social platform to urge Israel not to respond. "DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!" He later posted that Israel would not attack Iran. "All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" he said. Trump also commented on the US strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure over the weekend. "I think it's been completely demolished. I think the reason we're here is because those pilots, those B-2 pilots, did an unbelievable job," he said. The extent of the damage has not been independently verified. Trump added that Iran would not be able to rebuild its Fordow nuclear facility — the country's main site for enriching uranium to 60pc. "Iran will never rebuild its nuclear… From there? Absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished," he said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK business secretary imposes 15pc quota on HDG


24/06/25
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24/06/25

UK business secretary imposes 15pc quota on HDG

London, 24 June (Argus) — UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds intends to overrule the Trade Remedies Authority and impose a 15pc cap on hot-dip galvanised (HDG) imports into the 'other countries' quota, according to a letter he sent to the body. This would limit countries selling into the other countries HDG quota to 12,839 t/quarter, and probably make it tougher for traders to put together vessels from Asia for the UK, and could cause a rush to clear customs at the start of each quarter. Turkey — expected to be exempt based on the initial TRA recommendation — will have a quarterly quota of around 24,000t. Reynolds agreed with the TRA decisions to prevent unused quota being carried forward, to prevent countries with their own quota accessing the 'residual' quota in the final quarter, and to update country exemptions based on imports over 2024. There will also be 20pc caps on the other countries quotas for plate and rebar. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iran–Israel conflict pressures India’s Mn alloy exports


24/06/25
News
24/06/25

Iran–Israel conflict pressures India’s Mn alloy exports

Mumbai, 24 June (Argus) — India's manganese (Mn) alloy exports to Iran face growing uncertainty because the Iran–Israel conflict continues to disrupt trade routes and buyer activity. Iran is a key buyer of Indian ferro-manganese and silico-manganese, but tensions in the Middle East are putting a strain on the long-standing trading relationship. India usually ships around 60-70pc of its ferro-manganese and 30-40pc of its silico-manganese to Iran, out of 250,000-300,000t exported annually, a major Indian exporter said. The domestic market faces a serious oversupply issue if that much material cannot go to Iran, even with current production cuts, and they do not expect the situation to improve soon, the exporter added. But temporary relief may come from Europe. The EU has deferred safeguard duties on ferro-alloys until September, creating a short window for increased buying interest, particularly from EU-based customers. But European buying is still at an estimated 50-60pc of pre-slowdown levels. The India–EU free trade agreement negotiations could further support this momentum, exporters said. The conflict is also disrupting major sea routes. Key shipping channels between India and Iran, such as the Red Sea, the strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, have become highly volatile. There are increasing piracy alerts and reports of rerouted or delayed vessels. Exporters are already holding back shipments — not just because of weak demand, but also because fuel, power and freight costs remain stubbornly high, a market source said. They believe that maritime insurance costs have also jumped, further squeezing exporters' margins. The Argus -assessed price for 60pc silico-manganese alloy stood at $830-840/t fob east coast India, and the price for 65pc alloy was $910-930/t fob east coast. Prices for 75pc alloy are around $900-910/t fob on 24 June. Producers will have no choice but to lower prices to keep material moving if exports fall further, one trader said. An export slowdown could flood Indian markets with excess supply, putting downward pressure on already weak domestic prices. Producers also face high input costs for power and logistics, along with customs duties on imported manganese ore that affect their global competitiveness. The geopolitical disruption may accelerate a shift in India's export strategy. Indian exporters could pivot toward southeast Asia and Europe because buyers in Iran are now subject to trade volatility. The alloy sector faces a turbulent period in the short term. Oversupply, domestic price pressure and elevated logistics costs could compress margins, prompting Indian producers to scale down production or seek new markets. By Deepika Singh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Rio Tinto, Hancock invest in Australian iron ore JV


24/06/25
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24/06/25

Rio Tinto, Hancock invest in Australian iron ore JV

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