US soft red winter wheat may attract buyers

Market: Agriculture
02/08/24

US soft red winter wheat (SRW) exports are likely to increase because of the crop's price competitiveness on the world stage.

Demand for SRW has been relatively low recently, and US farmers have not been especially active in the market. But those dynamics may soon change.

Argus assessed US Gulf coast SRW at $213.85/t on 1 August, making it the cheapest milling wheat globally behind Ukraine's milling wheat at $212.50.

Buyers interested in US SRW would likely come from the same destinations that have bought the product the past.

Nigeria was a consistent buyer of SRW, averaging 341,000t prior to the 2019-20 marketing year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Nigerian purchases have sunk to 65,000 t/yr on average since that marketing year, but with favorable SRW economics Nigerian buyers may be enticed to purchase again.

Brazil could increase purchases of US SRW as well. Brazil has shifted to Black Sea and US origin milling wheat recently because of favorable pricing, according to market participants.

The top five destinations for US SRW have accounted for 66pc of the crop's exports on average over the past seven years, according to the USDA. The buyers have historically been in the Western hemisphere, with a few exceptions.

For the 2024-25 marketing year, USDA is forecasting SRW exports of 3mn t, down from 4.3mn t a year prior.

By Eduardo Gonzalez

Top destinations for US soft red winter wheat
Rank	2017/2018	2018/2019	2019/2020	2020/2021	2021/2022	2022/2023	2023/2024

1	Mexico	Mexico	Mexico	Mexico	Mexico	Mexico	China
2	Colombia	Egypt	Colombia	Colombia	China	Colombia	Mexico
3	Nigeria	Nigeria	Nigeria	China	Colombia	Ecuador	Ecuador
4	Peru	Colombia	Peru	Peru	Nigeria	China	Colombia
5	Dominican Republic	Indonesia	Dominican Republic	Dominican Republic	Peru	Peru	Peru
Top 5 total exported (t)	1,520,945	2,110,375	1,554,131	1,255,651	1,931,069	1,861,744	3,217,723
US SRW exports (t)	2,512,892	3,323,258	2,452,794	1,840,659	2,873,633	2,844,707	4,319,514
Top 5 percentage	60.5	63.5	63.4	68.2	67.2	65.4	74.5
— USDA, Argus

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US soft red winter wheat may attract buyers

Related news posts

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

US biofuel support clears way for new crush capacity

US biofuel support clears way for new crush capacity

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

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Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

Brazil's Mato Grosso estimates corn output at 54mn t

Brazil's Mato Grosso estimates corn output at 54mn t

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