Oil rises as Israel-Hezbollah clash fuels uncertainty
Oil prices have climbed today as tensions escalate in the Middle East following Israel's pre-emptive strike against militant group Hezbollah's positions in southern Lebanon. The potential for wider conflict in the region has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions.
As of 05:18 GMT the Ice front-month October Brent contract was at $79.52/bl, higher by 53¢/bl from its settlement on 23 August when the contract ended $1.80/bl higher.
The Israeli military launched an air operation involving approximately 100 aircraft to neutralise Hezbollah missile launchers. This action came in response to Hezbollah's attack on Israel, which included hundreds of rockets and drones, marking one of the most severe clashes in nearly a year of continuing hostilities.
The timing of these strikes coincided with negotiations in Egypt's Cairo aimed at brokering a ceasefire in Gaza. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, claimed to have fired 320 Katyusha rockets at Israeli targets, describing this as the initial phase of retaliation for Israel's elimination of a high-ranking Hezbollah commander the previous month.
While Israel's foreign minister Israel Katz stated that the country was not seeking a full-scale war, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning, suggesting that further action might be forthcoming.
Houthis add to threats
Adding to the regional tensions, Yemen's Houthi rebels, also supported by Iran, expressed support for Hezbollah's actions and reiterated their own threats against Israel.
The situation in the Red Sea remains precarious, with the Houthis claiming responsibility for an attack on a Greek-flagged oil tanker, the Suexmax Sounion. This incident has not only raised shipping security concerns but also poses potential environmental risks in the area.
The Houthis on 23 August posted a video of what they said was an explosion set off by its fighters on the Sounion, carrying 150,000t (1.1mn bl) of crude. The stricken tanker, which is adrift and unmanned, is "both a navigational and an imminent environmental hazard", according to the EU's naval force Operation Aspides, an EU defensive maritime security operation under the EU Common Security and Defence Policy.
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US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
Washington, 18 September (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration is trying to purchase 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a plan to issue solicitations when prices are "favorable for taxpayers." The US Department of Energy (DOE) today released a solicitation to purchase up to 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery in February-May to the SPR's Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana. If the purchase is successful, it would be the largest single purchase since the Biden administration launched its crude purchase program in early 2023. The solicitation offers a chance for the administration to buy crude for the SPR at a lower price than earlier purchases. Nymex WTI crude futures for delivery in February settled at $68.41/bl on Tuesday. The lowest-priced crude purchase under Biden was a 1.7mn purchase at a price of $72/bl in June 2023, and the average purchase price is about $76/bl. Bids for the solicitation are due by noon ET on 25 September. DOE has already purchased more than 50mn bl of sour crude for the SPR, of which 30mn bl have already been delivered. On 9 September, DOE said it purchased 3.42mn bl of sour crude for the SPR's Bryan Mound storage site at a price of $72.46/bl from the trading firm Macquarie Commodities Trading. The crude will be delivered in January-March, adding to an earlier purchase of nearly 2.5mn bl that will be delivered to the Bryan Mound site over the same time frame. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Advanced Fame marine biodiesel blends hit 9-month low
Advanced Fame marine biodiesel blends hit 9-month low
London, 18 September (Argus) — Some marine biodiesel blend prices in northwest Europe hit a year-to-date low on 17 September, owing to soft fundamentals and easing values in underlying markets. Argus assessed the prices of B30 and B100 Advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 dob ARA — which include a deduction of the value of Dutch renewable fuel tickets (HBE-G) — at $674.01/t and $993.87/t, respectively. At these levels, the two blends were at their lowest outright price since 29 December last year — right before values rose sharply following the halving of the Dutch HBE-G multiplier for maritime blending at the start of the year. Prices have slipped on the back lacklustre demand for marine biodiesel blends in recent months. The price of EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowances, for which Advanced Fame marine biodiesel blends receive a zero emission factor, have averaged $70.56/t so far this year, compared with $93.43/t in the same period last year. Consequently, the expansion of EU ETS into the shipping sector has done little to financially incentivise the uptake of marine biodiesel blends this year. On the other hand, voluntary demand for marine biodiesel blends has been steady from shipowners seeking to deliver proof of sustainability (PoS) documentation to their customers to offset the latter's scope 3 emissions. But this may have shifted geographically in recent months in favour of Singapore over ARA. Soft fundamentals in the marine biodiesel blend market has been compounded by pressure on prices in underlying crude and biodiesel markets. The front-month Ice Brent crude futures and gasoil futures contracts hit a near three-year low at 16:30 BST on 10 September. This in turn weighed on values of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and marine gasoil (MGO), and the former makes up 70pc of the B30 Advanced Fame dob ARA blend. VLSFO dob ARA prices have averaged $505.58/t so far in September, compared with $533.38/t on 1-18 August, having hit $483/t on 10 September, the lowest level since August 2021. Meanwhile, in the underlying biodiesel market, Advanced Fame 0 fob ARA prices were at the second-lowest level on record on 17 September, with the price marked at parity to used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) for the first time. Several market participants have said that low prices for German greenhouse gas (GHG) quota tickets, which can be traded on the market to meet the country's emissions reduction mandate, have discouraged buyers from physically blending advanced biodiesel, as tickets are a cheaper option. The current year GHG other ticket price hit a new historic low of $85/t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) on 13 September, down by $115/t compared with the same time last year and by $378/t compared with two years ago. Provisional EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese-origin biodiesel that came into force on 16 August have also turned European buyers away from advanced product made in China, which used to be one of the main sources of advanced biodiesel in Europe. By Hussein Al-Khalisy and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
Calgary, 18 September (Argus) — Canada's newest crude pipeline to the country's west coast amounts to a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn ($6.4bn), a research and policy think-tank said. The federal government is unlikely to recover its C$34bn investment to construct the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) connecting oil producers in Alberta to the Pacific coast, qualifying the project as a major subsidy for the fossil fuel industry, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) on Wednesday. This runs contrary to the government's policy to eliminate direct support for the oil and gas sector , a goal Justin Trudeau's Liberals said was achieved in 2023. The government was the first G20 country to hit this milestone, following a 2009 commitment by the group to reach the goal by 2025. The subsidy as it relates to TMX could be as high as C$18.7bn, the Canadian non-profit said, but noted the entire amount could still be recovered by increasing tolls and/or implementing a levy. This levy could be against either all producers, or all shippers, of crude in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), whether they use TMX or not, the IISD suggested. About 90pc of Canada's crude production comes from western Canada, with much of that derived from Alberta's oil sands region. "A levy in the range of C$1-2/bl . . . over a 10-year period would be sufficient to recover the entire cost of the subsidy and the loss to the Canadian taxpayer," according to the IISD. Alternatively, fixed tolls on TMX would need to be more than doubled to C$24.53/bl from C$11.37/bl to recover all capital costs for the line that went into service on 1 May this year, according to IISD's figures. Variable tolls would be added to this. The terms in the original contracts signed between shippers and then-owner Kinder Morgan were no longer appropriate as they did not reflect the rising risks of the project, said the IISD. Kinder Morgan suspended the project in 2018, which led to the Canadian government buying both the expansion project and the original 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain line from US midstream company that same year. The federal government has maintained its plan to sell the pipeline once operational, but the final tolls are yet to be determined. Whether the operator or shippers will bear the brunt of the massive cost overruns is also still unknown. Tolls, representing cash flows for any prospective buyer, will help dictate the price that the expanded Trans Mountain system will fetch. The IISD suggests a sale price is likely to be between C$17.6bn-26.6bn, resulting in a net loss to the government of between C$8.9bn-18bn assuming its cost of investment climbs to nearly C$36bn before a sale is reached. But despite warnings by opponents it would go underused, TMX has been as advertised, opening a new frontier for oil sands operators and disrupting trade flows throughout the Pacific Rim. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indian windfall tax on domestic crude output at zero
Indian windfall tax on domestic crude output at zero
Mumbai, 18 September (Argus) — India has reduced the windfall tax on domestic crude production to zero from a previous 1,850 rupees/t ($3/bl), in line with a fall in global oil prices. The new rate is effective from 18 September. The rate was last revised on 31 August when it was cut by 12pc . The rate is revised every two weeks. Global crude prices fell nearly 9pc during 1-18 September. The windfall tax was cut to zero during 4-19 April and 16 May-15 July 2023. The Indian government first imposed the windfall tax in July 2022 because of a sharp increase in crude prices that led to domestic crude producers making windfall gains. Indian producers sell crude to domestic refineries at international parity prices. India's crude production in August fell by 4pc from a year earlier to 520,000 b/d, oil ministry data show. Crude imports in August fell by 8pc from July and by nearly 1pc against a year earlier to 4.22m b/d in August, Vortexa data show. India has again extended a deadline to 21 September for submitting bids for the ninth bidding round under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy's Open Acreage Licensing Programme, as it attempts to boost investment to lift domestic upstream output. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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