Rain forces Kazakh wheat crop downgrade

Much of Kazakhstan's 2024-25 wheat crop could turn out below human-consumption quality because of excessive rain during spring wheat development in August, according to market participants.

That said, output could still be above average, with Argus forecasting the country's production above the previous five-year average for 2024-25 (September-August).

Cold and wet weather has delayed crop growth by around 10 days, market participants said, and weighed on quality. Some producers, particularly those growing durum wheat, report sprouting, especially in crops sown before mid-May.

Sprouting has not been seen in soft wheat, with falling numbers and protein content also reported in line with producers' expectations, market participants said.

But the rain has increased the prevalence of yield-risking diseases, such as rust and septoria tritici, and lowered test weights to 71-72 kg/hectolitre (kg/hl), well below the standard minimum of 76-77 kg/hl for human consumption milling wheat.

Producers still expect above-average yields, with harvest now well under way. But the continuing rain and muddy fields have hampered operations, according to market participants, exacerbating delayed crop development. If snow arrives before November, this could also challenge the harvest, which is usually complete in mid-October, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Farmers grow spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan, where rainfall was 150-400pc above norms in August and 120-200pc above norms in July-August, according to USDA. The rain had left topsoil and subsoil moisture levels well above average as of 31 August, USDA data show.