US corn growers could sink deeper into red on downturn
A more than 10pc drop in new-crop corn futures since early May has chipped away at early-season sales revenue estimates, potentially pushing domestic growers deeper into the red amid another season of elevated expenses.
US corn farmers face a $1.77bn cut in projected sales revenue based onpreliminary estimates for the 2024-25 crop as growers vie to liquidate old-crop inventories — pressuring new-crop 2025 futures values to the lowest level within the last two years.
The incremental dip in projected revenue has outpaced lower expenses and steepened projected losses for domestic corn growers, with estimated losses on a per-acre basis primed to slump to -$111.86/acre before considering government assistance, according to an Argus analysis of US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data.
Current conditions mark a reversal from the prior three seasons for corn growers and has sparked concern for another lengthy downturn in grain markets, according to Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer survey.
Farmers surveyed in August "expect this year's farm income downturn to last for an extended period" after enjoying multiple seasons of above-$200/acre profits from 2021-22 — which were preceded by seven consecutive years of double-digit losses from 2014-20, according to the USDA.
"Over the last several months, farmers' concerns about weakening commodity prices have become more evident," Purdue reported today. "In the August survey, producers' concerns about commodity prices nearly eclipsed what has consistently been their top concern: high input prices."
Growers this year have grappled with the weakening grains market by extending and taking out new non-real-estate loans. Demand for new operating loans was above normal, outpaced real estate loan demand through the first half of the year and is expected to remain strong through the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — which represents growers from Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Corn prices will continue to face above-average inventories and record yield estimates, which has forced growers to liquidate inventory to clear space for this season's crop.
A silver lining, though, is lower acreage from other major corn producing countries, which could stem the current downtrend in corn values.
Argentina, which is the third-largest exporter of corn, could slash planted acreage by up to 50pc on price and pest concerns, while Brazilian farmers face worsening weather conditions that could erode planted area for the upcoming season.
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Brazil's Parana ports handle record cargo in Aug
Brazil's Parana ports handle record cargo in Aug
Sao Paulo, 16 September (Argus) — The Paranagua and Antonina ports, in Brazil's southern Parana state, handled a record amount of cargo in August thanks to increased fertilizer imports. The two ports handled 6.9mn metric tonnes (t) of cargo in August, up by 14pc from the same month in 2023 and above the prior record of 6.6mn t in June, according to Parana's port authority data. That also surpassed July's handling by 20pc. Imports totaled 2.5mn t last month, a 41pc hike from August 2023 and above the 2.2mn t handled in July. Fertilizer imports increased by 59pc to 1.2mn t in August from a year before and were 29pc — or 265,170t — above the prior month's imports. Exports reached 4.4mn t, up from 4.3mn t in August 2023 and a near 27pc increase from July's exports. Soybean shipments rose by 10pc to 1.9mn t in August from the same month last year. That was also above the 1.3mn t exported in the previous month. Corn exports decreased by 77pc to 72,900t, down from 316,430t shipped in August 2023 and almost in line with July's exports. Exports of bulk sugar increased by 34pc to 836,430t last month from the same period a year ago. That was also up by 77pc from July's exports. Parana ports handled 46.4mn t in January-August, up by 10pc from the same period in 2023, also boosted by higher imports. Imports increased by 23pc to 17.2mn t. Fertilizer imports rose by 14pc to 6.9mn t, up from 6mn t in January-August 2023. Exports totaled 29.2mn t, a 4pc increase from the same eight months last year. Soybean shipments rose by 11pc to 11.2mn t in the period, while corn exports dropped by 80pc to 581,730t from the same eight-month period in 2023. Wheat exports in January-August more than tripled to 171,830t from the same period a year before. Sugar shipments increased by 46pc to 4.2mn t. By Maria Albuquerque Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India hikes import duties on vegetable oils
India hikes import duties on vegetable oils
Kyiv, 16 September (Argus) — India has sharply increased duties on crude and refined vegetable oils in a bid to reduce imports and protect local oilseed farmers. Import duties on crude palm oil (CPO), sunflower oil (SFO) and soybean oil (SBO) will increase to 27.5pc, from 5.5pc, while duties on refined oils, like RBD palm olein, are now set at 37.75pc, compared with 13.75pc earlier. The new rates came into effect on 14 September. The move might reduce overseas imports of CPO, SBO and SFO, and support local oilseed prices, before regional elections. On Monday, SFO was offered to India at about $1,060/t for October-November shipment, compared with $1,045-1,050/t a week ago. The higher import duties could pressure palm oil prices. Palm oil imports represent the biggest share in India's overall vegetable oils purchases at 7.64mn t so far this season, down from 9.79mn t a year earlier. India — the world's largest vegetable oil importer — received 13.69mn t of vegoils in November 2023-August 2024, the first 10 months of the vegetable oil year. SBO imports in August reached 455,000t, the highest since the start of the 2023-24 marketing year in November. By Kristin Yavorska Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hurricane Francine brings rain to the lower Miss. River
Hurricane Francine brings rain to the lower Miss. River
Houston, 13 September (Argus) — Hurricane Francine dropped 4-8 inches of rain around the lower Mississippi River, raising forecast water levels on the river and potentially improving shipping conditions for barges. Points between Cairo, Illinois, and Vicksburg, Mississippi, that were at their low water thresholds over the week are now forecast to exit those thresholds in the coming week according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Increased rainfall from Hurricane Francine has locations like Greenville, Mississippi and Helena, Arkansas entering regular water levels as soon as this weekend. Other locations, such as Memphis, Tennessee, will see a bump in water levels, but will remain at its low water threshold, said NWS. The US Coast Guard has not made any changes to the draft and towing restrictions since 10 September when they changed the point for heavier loading from Greenville, Mississippi, to Vicksburg for southbound limits. More water is likely to enter the lower Mississippi River through its tributaries in the coming days, after Francine has passed the Mississippi Delta. The storm made landfall as a hurricane on the Louisiana coast the evening of 11 September but downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved northward. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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