News
09/05/25
Ethiopia’s EABC still needs up to 400,000t DAP in 2025
London, 9 May (Argus) — Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses (EABC) will close a
tender to buy 425,390t of DAP on 13 May. Argus estimates it needs to secure the
majority of this volume to meet the country's phosphates demand for the 2025
application season. Across all tenders to buy DAP that EABC opened between
August 2024-May 2025, the importer awarded 1.16mn t across 18 cargoes. Of this
awarded total, Argus estimates only up to 750,000t is likely to be delivered to
Ethiopia in a timely manner. This is because some of these awarded cargoes —
largely Chinese — did not have firm backing from producers. And the bulk of the
awarded Chinese cargoes — which made up almost half of all the awarded cargoes —
were not shipped while Chinese producers focused on covering domestic demand. In
recent years, Ethiopia had imported phosphate in the form of NPS and NPSB
through EABC tenders, generally all from Morocco. But in August 2024, ahead of
the 2025 domestic season, EABC switched from importing NPS to asking for DAP
18-46. In its last tender to buy NPS, issued in August 2023, EABC asked for
around 1mn t of NPSB and 332,000t of NPS containing 37.7pc and 38pc P2O5,
respectively. On a P2O5 basis, the 2023 NPS tender asked for a total of around
1.1mn t of DAP-equivalent. This implies EABC needs to line up a further
350,000-400,000t of DAP, assuming a similar demand for P2O5 as last year. Argus
line-up data shows 1.046mn t of NPS shipped from Morocco's Jorf Lasfar to
Djibouti in the 12 months following August 2023. On a P2O5 basis, this is
probably equivalent to only around 900,000t of DAP. EABC would need to buy
150,000-200,000t more to reach this level. Chinese DAP will probably dominate
offers into EABC's 13 May tender. After a hiatus of around six months, Chinese
suppliers will likely be able to apply for customs inspections under the CIQ
system from mid-May for DAP and MAP cargoes. This implies Chinese DAP exports
will resume from as early as late May, in time to meet EABC's requirements. Time
running out for Ethiopia's season EABC is likely to struggle to secure the
remaining DAP needed before the end of Ethiopia's domestic season. Planting
during Ethiopia's Meher — the main rainy season — broadly spans from March to
June. In its latest tender to buy DAP, closing on 13 May, EABC asked for a
loading period up to mid-July. In 2024, the final cargoes under EABC's 2023-24
tender to buy NPS had already arrived in Djibouti by that time. Under the 23
April and 13 May EABC tenders, cargoes loading in June — particularly from
closer origins like Saudi Arabia — could still arrive in time to service the
tail end of Ethiopia's DAP season. But the bulk of the country's application
season will likely have been missed by then. EABC's next tenders will likely be
targeting supply for the 2026 domestic season. DAP is more expensive Tender
awards are limited by EABC's allocation of funds for DAP before offers are
collected. The importer received eight 60,000t offers ranging from
$696.27-748.00/t fob with 30 days of credit in its 23 April tender, and awarded
only the lowest offer before scrapping the tender and issuing a fresh one. It
rejected revised offers in its 20 February and 25 March tenders, which were
above its counterbids at $625/t fob and $647.19/t fob, respectively. Awards in
the 13 May tender will likely remain difficult because prices in the global DAP
market have risen. DAP prices in India — the global DAP benchmark and a key
competitor to Ethiopia — are now around $720/t cfr, up significantly from $590/t
cfr at the beginning of August 2024. DAP could go elsewhere Any DAP which
Ethiopia does not acquire will find willing buyers elsewhere in south and
southeast Asia. India began May with around 1.64mn t of DAP in stock — well
below a comfortable 2mn t minimum — and will need to boost imports to build its
inventories. Bangladesh will likely issue a private-sector tender in the coming
weeks, probably seeking around 500,000t or more of DAP. China is traditionally
its main supplier, especially through its private-sector tenders. Demand in
southeast Asia has generally seen an uptick because of high rainfall, and many
buyers have been holding out for the resumption of Chinese exports. DAP prices
have reached $700-715/t cfr southeast Asia on latest sales, but offers are
climbing higher. And Pakistan will likely step into the import market to secure
tonnes for July-August arrival, ahead of the peak of its domestic season from
the end of the third quarter. EABC received offers for Jordanian and Saudi
Arabian DAP loading in May in its 23 April tender. It rejected the offers,
allowing India to buy probably the same cargoes at $719.50/t cfr earlier this
month. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at
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