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2024 RD production outlook up, 2025 down: EIA

  • Market: Biofuels, Emissions
  • 10/09/24

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today upped its forecast for 2024 domestic renewable diesel (RD) production but continued to trim its projections for 2025 as challenging economics for refiners persist.

The US is expected to produce on average 208,000 b/d of renewable diesel this year, EIA said Tuesday in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), up by around 1pc from August's forecast. Renewable diesel consumption is expected to hit 237,000 b/d this year, an increase of 1.3pc from the prior month's STEO.

But next year, EIA now expects 236,000 b/d of renewable diesel production, down by 3.2pc from the prior forecast and down by 19.7pc from the agency's initial projection in January this year of 294,000 b/d. The agency is also forecasting renewable diesel consumption to reach 255,000 b/d in 2025, a 2.3pc decrease from its estimate last month.

Renewable diesel producers have struggled over the last year, as ample supply of fuels used for compliance with government clean fuel programs has helped depress the prices of environmental credits and hurt production margins. More capacity has come online this year — with EIA recently pegging production of renewable diesel and related biofuels like sustainable aviation fuel at an all-time high of 4.9bn USG/yr in June — but uncertainty persists about whether future capacity additions will come on line as planned.

EIA also upped its projection for US net imports of renewable diesel, raising its 2024 forecast by 7.1pc to 30,000 b/d and its 2025 forecast by 5.6pc to 19,000 b/d. While a federal tax credit starting next year is expected to discourage biofuel imports, since the incentive can only be claimed for fuel produced in the US, EIA's projections have inched upwards over the course of this year.

Biodiesel output target up

US biodiesel production this year is expected to average 105,000 b/d, up by around 1pc from August's STEO. US Biodiesel consumption should reach 121,000 b/d this year according to the EIA, down by 0.8pc from the prior forecast.

For 2025, EIA raised its outlook for biodiesel production by 5.3pc to 100,000 b/d and for biodiesel consumption by 4.4pc to 94,000 b/d.

Today's outlook also includes for the first time more granular data about biodiesel and renewable diesel "that better capture how biofuels are being consumed and the share of total distillate fuel they account for," EIA said. While the agency expects total distillate fuel oil consumption to fall slightly this year, biofuels will account for 9pc of that consumption, up from 8pc last year and 5pc in 2022.


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04/10/24

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind

New York, 4 October (Argus) — Tightening vessel carbon intensity indicator (CII) scores and looming 2025 FuelEU marine regulation are expected to raise biodiesel demand for bunkering, but non-competitive US prices should continue to weigh down on US bio-bunker demand. Houston B30, a blend of used cooking methyl ester (Ucome) and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), in September averaged at $821/t, a $45/t premium to B30 sold in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, and a $55/t premium to B24 sold in the west Mediterranean hub of Gibraltar and Algeciras (see chart) . Houston B30 was also priced at $115/t and $61/t premium to B24 sold in Singapore and Guangzhou, China, respectively. The price premium would continue to incentivize ship owners with global, ocean-going fleets to pick Asia first for their biodiesel bunker purchases, followed by northwest Europe and western Mediterranean. US demand for biodiesel for bunkering would continue to stagnate unless the US passes a legislation allowing Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program be used by ocean-going vessels fueling with biodiesel in US ports. The legislation could level US' price playing field. Two bipartisan bills were put forward in support of renewable fuel for ocean-going vessels, one in the US Senate this year and one in the US House of Representatives last year, but they are currently dead in the water. Conventional marine fuels are priced cheaper than biodiesel and green varieties of LNG, ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen. But tightening International Maritime Organization (IMO) and EU regulations are forcing the hand of ship operators to consider green fuels to avoid hefty penalties and having their vessels suspended from trading. Ship owners whose vessels are outfitted with LNG-burning engines, are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025, as fossil LNG is currently ship owners' cheapest low-carbon fuel option. But retrofitting a vessel to burn LNG could range from $5-$35mn, depending on the size of the vessel. Biodiesel, a plug-and-play fuel that does not require a vessel retrofit, is the second cheapest low-carbon fuel option after fossil LNG. IMO's CII regulation came into force in January 2023 and requires vessels over 5,000 gt to report their carbon intensity, which is then scored from A to E. The scoring levels are lowered yearly by about 2pc, so even a vessel with no change in CII could drop from C to D in one year. If a vessel receives a D score three years in a row or E score in the previous year, the vessel owner must submit a corrective actions plan. E scoring vessels could be prohibited from entering some ports' territorial waters, but this penalty is yet to be imposed on any E vessels. In 2023, the IMO reported that 40pc of the vessels scored A or B, 27pc scored C, 19pc scored D or E and 14pc were unresponsive. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. It imposes a penalty of €2,400/t ($2,629/t) of VLSFO equivalent energy for vessel fleets exceeding its GHG limits. By Stefka Wechsler Biodiesel blends* Houston less global ports $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK confirms $28.5bn funding for two CCS, H2 clusters


04/10/24
News
04/10/24

UK confirms $28.5bn funding for two CCS, H2 clusters

Hamburg, 4 October (Argus) — The UK government has finalised a commitment to provide £21.7bn ($28.5bn) over the next 25 years to two planned clusters for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and connected projects, including for hydrogen production. The government has reached "commercial agreement with industry" for development of the clusters, it said today. The funding will go to the HyNet cluster in northwest England and the East Coast cluster in England's northeastern Humber and Teesside regions. The two projects were selected as "Track 1" priority clusters in 2021 and could together store some 650mn t of CO2. They could attract £8bn of private investment, the government said today. "The allocation of funding marks the launch of the UK's CCS industry," according to Italy's integrated Eni, which leads the development of HyNet's CO2 transport and storage system. Eni in February gave a start date of 2027 for HyNet. The East Coast cluster is led by the Northern Endurance Partnership, a joint venture between BP, TotalEnergies and Norwegian state-controlled Equinor. A range of projects will connect to the two hubs to transport and permanently sequester the carbon. These will include hydrogen production projects and supporting infrastructure. HyNet will involve projects developed by EET Hydrogen , a subsidiary of Indian conglomerate Essar, which is planning to bring a 350MW plant for hydrogen production from natural gas with CCS online by 2027 and another 700MW facility by 2028. The hydrogen will be partly used at EET Hydrogen's sister company EET Fuels at its 195,000 b/d Stanlow refinery but some will also be delivered to industrial consumers in the area. The HyNet cluster includes plans for 125km of new pipelines to transport hydrogen. The East Coast cluster involves Equinor's [600MW H2H Saltend] project and BP's 160,000 t/yr H2Teesside venture . German utility Uniper's 720MW Humber H2ub (Blue) project, UK-based Kellas Midstream's 1GW H2NorthEast plant and a retrofit facility from BOC , which is part of industrial gas firm Linde, could also connect to the cluster for CO2 storage. All the projects are due to enter into operation before the end of this decade. The funding confirmation for the CCS hubs "is a vital step forward, catapulting hydrogen towards long-term certainty we need in the UK", industry body the Hydrogen Energy Association's chief executive Celia Greaves said. The previous government last year picked two "Track 2" carbon capture clusters that are scheduled to start operations by 2030 — the Acorn facility in Scotland and the Viking project in northeast England. By Stefan Krumpelmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US light vehicle sales surged in September


03/10/24
News
03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia’s Origin to exit Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub


03/10/24
News
03/10/24

Australia’s Origin to exit Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub

Sydney, 3 October (Argus) — Australian utility and upstream firm Origin Energy has decided not to proceed with its planned hydrogen development project, the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub (HVHH), in Australia's New South Wales. The decision to withdraw from the proposed 55MW HVHH and halt all hydrogen opportunities was made because of continuing uncertainty about the pace and timing of hydrogen market development, Origin said. The firm said the capital-intensive project, intended to progressively replace gas as a feedstock in a nearby ammonia manufacturing plant, carried substantial risks. Origin Energy had an initial agreement with Australian chemicals and explosives company Orica to take 80pc of the green hydrogen produced from the hub for Orica's 360,000 t/yr ammonia facility on Kooragang Island, near the city of Newcastle. Origin Energy and Orica in 2022 said they will study plans to develop the HHVH in Hunter Valley region of NSW, which is Australia's largest thermal coal-producing area. "It has become clear that the hydrogen market is developing more slowly than anticipated, and there remain risks and both input cost and technology advancements to overcome. The combination of these factors mean we are unable to see a current pathway to take a final investment decision on the project," said chief executive Frank Calabria on 3 October. Origin had planned to make a final investment decision on the project by late 2024. The hub, which was estimated to cost A$207.6mn ($143mn), had been allocated A$115mn in state and federal funding and was shortlisted for production credits under Canberra's Hydrogen Headstart programme. In July, Origin described the pace of development in the hydrogen industry as "slower than it had anticipated 12 months ago", said. The company expressed hopes that improved electrolysis efficiency would reduce the rising costs of production. The decision is a significant setback for Australia's green hydrogen ambitions, following the July decision by Australian miner and energy company Fortescue to postpone its target of 15mn t/yr green hydrogen output by 2030. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update


02/10/24
News
02/10/24

California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update

Updates throughout with more detail on revisions. Houston, 2 October (Argus) — California regulators advanced stricter limits on crop-based biofuels as revisions to a key North American low-carbon incentive program drew closer to a vote. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) late yesterday added sunflower oil — a feedstock with no current approved users or previous indicated use in the program — to restrictions first proposed in August on canola and soybean oil feedstocks for biomass-based diesel. The new language maintained a proposal to make the program's annual targets 9pc tougher in 2025 and to achieve by 2030 a 30pc reduction from 2010 transportation fuel carbon intensity levels. Board decisions that could come as early as 8 November may reconfigure the flow of low-carbon fuels across North America. The state credits anchor a bouquet of incentives that have driven the rapid buildout of renewable diesel capacity and dairy biogas capture systems far beyond California's borders, and inspired similar, but separate, programs along the US west coast and in Canada. CARB staff's latest proposals, published a little before midnight ET on 1 October, offer comparatively minor adjustments to the shock August revisions that spurred a nearly $20 after-hours rally in LCFS prompt prices. Prompt credits early in Wednesday's session traded higher by $3 than they closed the previous trading day before slipping back by midday. LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. California's program has helped spur a rush of new US renewable diesel production capacity, swamping west coast fuel markets and inundating the state's LCFS program with compliance credits. CARB reported more than 26mn metric tonnes of credits on hand by April this year — more than enough to satisfy all new deficits generated in 2023. Staff have sought through this year's rulemaking to restore incentives to more deeply decarbonize state transportation than thought possible during revisions last made in 2019. Participants have generally supported tougher targets, with some fuel suppliers warning about potential price increases and credit generators urging CARB to take a still more aggressive approach. But proposals to limit credit generation to only 20pc of the volume of fuel a supplier made from canola, soybean and now sunflower has found little public support. Environmental opponents have argued that the CARB proposals fall short of what is necessary to add protections against cropland expansion and fuel competition with food supply. Agribusiness and some fuel producers have warned the concept, proposed in August, ran counter to the premise of a neutral, carbon-focused program and against staff's own view last spring. The proposal exceeded what CARB could do without beginning a new rulemaking, some argued. CARB yesterday proposed a grace period for facilities already using the feedstocks to continue generating credits while seeking alternatives. Facilities certified to use those feedstocks before changes are formally adopted could continue using those sources until 2028, compared to a 2026 cut off proposed in August. No facilities currently supplying California have certified sunflower feedstock, and it was not clear that any were planned. "We're not aware of any proposed pathway or lifecycle analysis for sunflower oil, so that addition is just baffling," said Cory-Ann Wind, Clean Fuels Alliance America director of state regulatory affairs. "Clearly not based in science." The latest revisions include a change to how staff communicate a new, proposed automatic adjustment mechanism (AAM). The mechanism would automatically advance to tougher, future targets when credits exceed deficits by a certain amount. Supporters consider this a more responsive approach to market conditions than the years of rulemaking effort already underway. Opponents argue such a mechanism cedes important authority and responsibility from the board. Staff proposed quarterly, rather than annual, updates on whether conditions would trigger an adjustment, and to use conditions during the most recent four quarters, rather than by calendar year. Obligations and targets would continue to work on a calendar-year basis. CARB staff clarified that verifying electric vehicle charging credits would not require site visits to the thousands of charging stations eligible to participate in the program. Staff also clarified how long dairy or swine biogas harvesting projects could continue to generate credits if built this decade, with a proposed reduction in credit periods only applying to projects certified after the new rules were adopted. California formally began this rulemaking process in early January after publishing draft proposals in late December. Regulators initially proposed adjusting 2025 targets lower by 5pc for 2025 — a one-time decrease called a stepdown — to work toward a 30pc reduction target for 2030. CARB set its sights on 21 March for adoption. But staff pulled that proposal in February as hundreds of comments in response poured in. Updated language released on 12 August proposed a steeper stepdown for 2025 of 9pc while keeping the 30pc target for 2030. Public comment on yesterday's publication will continue to 16 October. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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