Higher volumes of ethylbenzene (EB) into gasoline blending a year ago has led to a credit shortage, pushing prices to their highest levels since March 2021.
In 2022 and 2023, US Gulf coast (USGC) naphtha inventories were long as US naphtha exports declined from 400,000-500,000b/d pre-pandemic to 100,000-200,000b/d.
Over the same span of time, refiners and blenders dropped excess naphtha, a sub-octane blendstock, into the gasoline pool. This blend of gasoline spurred demand for high-octane blendstocks like EB, toluene and mixed xylenes into gasoline blending.
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires gasoline with benzene content above a certain threshold to be offset by a credit generated by refining compliant gasoline.
The elevated blending of EB exhausted the supply of benzene credits on the open market, which bled into 2024. Credits traded near 100¢/USG early in 2024 and rose to as high as 190¢/USG over the summer. Values now span buyer interest at 160¢/USG and seller interest at 190¢/USG.
The compliance deadline for benzene credit submission is set for 31 March 2025, in which refiners must mass-balance their production over a given year and either face a credit surplus for being over-compliant or a shortage and therefore will need to procure credits on the open market.
