Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has started selling gasoline to the domestic market with state-owned oil firm NNPC as the sole offtaker.
NNPC said earlier today that it is paying Dangote in US dollars for September gasoline loadings. The firm's previously announced crude-for-gasoline swap programme with Dangote will be settled in the local currency and will start on 1 October, it added.
NNPC published a Dangote gasoline ex-refinery price of $736/t, or 898.78 naira/litre ($0.55/l), based on spot prices from 13 September. This equates to N842.61/l plus a Dangote premium of N56.17/l. Gasoline prices "are not set by government but negotiated directly between parties on an arm's length", in line with the provisions of Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act, NNPC said.
Dangote provided videos of gasoline loading onto NNPC branded trucks at its gantry on the outskirts of Lagos on 15 September. NNPC issued a statement the previous day saying it had "deployed over 100 trucks, with hundreds more en route" for the start of gasoline sales. Dangote previously said the refinery has the capacity to load 2,900 trucks a day, in addition to three single point mooring (SPM) facilities, 25km offshore, that can load product onto 20,000-130,000t tankers.
NNPC has supplied gasoline to the domestic market almost exclusively since 2017, relying heavily on imports from overseas because of the parlous state of its own refineries. The start of gasoline loadings at Dangote will enable Nigeria to significantly reduce its dependence on gasoline imports.
NNPC's statement today about gasoline pricing comes against a backdrop of President Bola Tinubu adopting a gradual reduction of the country's longstanding gasoline subsidy instead of his stated policy goal of removing it in one fell swoop. His administration made that decision in response to a cost-of-living crisis and social unrest following last year's initial attempt to remove the subsidy.
Based on Dangote's ex-refinery price, regulatory fees of N9.96/l, distribution costs of N15/l and a margin of N26.48/l, NNPC said it has arrived at an estimated retail price of N950.22/l for gasoline in Lagos. That is 11pc higher than the level to which it hiked prices at its Lagos retail stations on 3 September. The company attributed that hike to the government reducing the extent to which it subsidises gasoline.
Still ramping up
Dangote said previously that it expects to be able to produce 57mn l/d (365,000 b/d) of gasoline at full capacity, more than enough to cover Nigerian demand, which it estimated at about 33mn l/d. But industry sources told Argus the refinery was only able to supply NNPC with 16mn l of gasoline over the weekend.
The refinery is still some way off reaching capacity, with crude feedstock supply falling by 34pc on the month to 185,000 b/d in August, according to Argus tracking. Argus reported last week that Dangote is yet to complete the start-up of its residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC), which is holding the refinery back from hitting its gasoline production capacity. Test runs may have started on the unit, but it is unlikely to be fully operational until October or November.
NNPC said it supplied Dangote with 4.8mn bl of crude in August, down from 5.1mn bl in July. It said it will supply the refinery with 5.4mn bl this month and 11.7mn bl in October. The projected crude supply for October is a slight increase from the 11.3mn bl that NNPC announced on 5 September but a touch lower than the volume outlined by Nigeria's coordinating minister of the economy Wale Edun.
"From 1 October, NNPC will commence the supply of approximately 385,000 b/d of crude oil to the Dangote refinery, which will be paid for in naira," Edun said on 15 September.
In return, the Dangote refinery will supply gasoline and diesel "of equivalent value to the domestic market to be paid for in naira", Edun said. "Diesel will be sold in naira by the Dangote refinery to any interested offtaker," he said. But gasoline "will only be sold to NNPC. NNPC will then sell to various marketers for now".
