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EPA already at work on 2026-forward RFS rules

  • Market: Biofuels
  • 17/09/24

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has started work on the second set of rules for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), expected to span multiple years beginning in 2026, a spokesperson said today.

The rule will likely establish renewable volume targets for multiple years under the RFS, although the exact timeframe has not been confirmed, EPA deputy office director Ben Hengst said today at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS and Carbon Summit in Monterey, California. Work on the incoming rule was originally not expected to begin until early 2025.

Updated analysis, especially regarding advanced biofuels and feedstocks, will inform new rulemaking, as well as the inclusion of regulatory changes intended to improve the program's implementation, Hengst said.

Unprecedented growth in US biofuels imports led overall advanced biofuel supply in 2023 to far surpass EPA projections. But biomass-based diesel volumes for the current rules were based on projected growth in North American feedstock supply — not international availability nor the nameplate capacities of US refineries, Hengst said.

There were also large increases in imported feedstocks for biofuel production, namely in used cooking oil and tallow.

But the potential for an upset in global trade flows remains an agency concern. Domestic policy in some countries could boost offshore consumption of feedstocks and finished fuels that have arrived to the US market in recent years, while the US policy environment itself remains vulnerable to change.

The EPA is also navigating recent adverse judgments against its interpretation of the Small Refinery Exemption program and is prioritizing the development of options that would comply with court orders.

There was no clarity provided on eRINs as the EPA continues to consider its options.


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07/10/24

Fossil fuel cars phase-out comes up again in Brussels

Fossil fuel cars phase-out comes up again in Brussels

Brussels, 7 October (Argus) — The European parliament will this week debate a "crisis" facing the EU's automotive industry which could lead to "potential" plant closures, putting discussions on already-decided CO2 standards for vehicles on the forefront. Members have faced increased efforts by industry arguing for or against speedy review of the EU's regulation on CO2 emission standards for cars and vans. The regulation sets a 2035 phase-out target for new fossil fuel cars. The European commission is expected to give a statement to parliament, but a spokesperson told Argus that any change to the EU CO2 standards for cars and light vehicles would require a legal proposal by the commission to both parliament and EU member states. The priority, the spokesperson said, is on meeting 2025 targets for fleet CO2 reductions, agreed in 2019, but the commission is aware of "different opinions" in industry. Automakers association Acea has been calling for a "substantive and holistic" review of the CO2 regulation. The transition to zero-emission vehicles must be made "more manageable", assessing real-world progress against the ambition level. On the other hand, European power industry association Eurelectric today told members of parliament that bringing forward a review of the EU's regulation on CO2 standards for cars and vans to the start of 2025 would only encourage carmakers to hold off on making lower-priced and smaller electric vehicles (EV). The next CO2 target for car fleets is set to take effect in 2025. It requires a 15pc cut in emissions for newly registered cars. Some member states view the CO2 target cuts, and phase-out of the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035, as contentious. The regulation was only approved after a delay to normally formal approval. And parliament's largest centre-right EPP group is calling for a revision of CO2 standards for new cars to allow for alternative zero-emission fuels beyond 2035. As a counterweight to such pressure, Austrian, Belgian, Dutch and Irish ministers today called on commission president Ursula von der Leyen to step up EU action to push decarbonisation of company vehicles, notably light duty vehicles. "We need to consider action on the demand side in order to push zero-emission vehicles sales. Corporate fleets are the EU's most important market segment," the four ministers told von der Leyen. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind


04/10/24
News
04/10/24

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind

New York, 4 October (Argus) — Tightening vessel carbon intensity indicator (CII) scores and looming 2025 FuelEU marine regulation are expected to raise biodiesel demand for bunkering, but non-competitive US prices should continue to weigh down on US bio-bunker demand. Houston B30, a blend of used cooking methyl ester (Ucome) and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), in September averaged at $821/t, a $45/t premium to B30 sold in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, and a $55/t premium to B24 sold in the west Mediterranean hub of Gibraltar and Algeciras (see chart) . Houston B30 was also priced at $115/t and $61/t premium to B24 sold in Singapore and Guangzhou, China, respectively. The price premium would continue to incentivize ship owners with global, ocean-going fleets to pick Asia first for their biodiesel bunker purchases, followed by northwest Europe and western Mediterranean. US demand for biodiesel for bunkering would continue to stagnate unless the US passes a legislation allowing Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program be used by ocean-going vessels fueling with biodiesel in US ports. The legislation could level US' price playing field. Two bipartisan bills were put forward in support of renewable fuel for ocean-going vessels, one in the US Senate this year and one in the US House of Representatives last year, but they are currently dead in the water. Conventional marine fuels are priced cheaper than biodiesel and green varieties of LNG, ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen. But tightening International Maritime Organization (IMO) and EU regulations are forcing the hand of ship operators to consider green fuels to avoid hefty penalties and having their vessels suspended from trading. Ship owners whose vessels are outfitted with LNG-burning engines, are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025, as fossil LNG is currently ship owners' cheapest low-carbon fuel option. But retrofitting a vessel to burn LNG could range from $5-$35mn, depending on the size of the vessel. Biodiesel, a plug-and-play fuel that does not require a vessel retrofit, is the second cheapest low-carbon fuel option after fossil LNG. IMO's CII regulation came into force in January 2023 and requires vessels over 5,000 gt to report their carbon intensity, which is then scored from A to E. The scoring levels are lowered yearly by about 2pc, so even a vessel with no change in CII could drop from C to D in one year. If a vessel receives a D score three years in a row or E score in the previous year, the vessel owner must submit a corrective actions plan. E scoring vessels could be prohibited from entering some ports' territorial waters, but this penalty is yet to be imposed on any E vessels. In 2023, the IMO reported that 40pc of the vessels scored A or B, 27pc scored C, 19pc scored D or E and 14pc were unresponsive. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. It imposes a penalty of €2,400/t ($2,629/t) of VLSFO equivalent energy for vessel fleets exceeding its GHG limits. By Stefka Wechsler Biodiesel blends* Houston less global ports $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US light vehicle sales surged in September


03/10/24
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03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update


02/10/24
News
02/10/24

California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update

Updates throughout with more detail on revisions. Houston, 2 October (Argus) — California regulators advanced stricter limits on crop-based biofuels as revisions to a key North American low-carbon incentive program drew closer to a vote. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) late yesterday added sunflower oil — a feedstock with no current approved users or previous indicated use in the program — to restrictions first proposed in August on canola and soybean oil feedstocks for biomass-based diesel. The new language maintained a proposal to make the program's annual targets 9pc tougher in 2025 and to achieve by 2030 a 30pc reduction from 2010 transportation fuel carbon intensity levels. Board decisions that could come as early as 8 November may reconfigure the flow of low-carbon fuels across North America. The state credits anchor a bouquet of incentives that have driven the rapid buildout of renewable diesel capacity and dairy biogas capture systems far beyond California's borders, and inspired similar, but separate, programs along the US west coast and in Canada. CARB staff's latest proposals, published a little before midnight ET on 1 October, offer comparatively minor adjustments to the shock August revisions that spurred a nearly $20 after-hours rally in LCFS prompt prices. Prompt credits early in Wednesday's session traded higher by $3 than they closed the previous trading day before slipping back by midday. LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. California's program has helped spur a rush of new US renewable diesel production capacity, swamping west coast fuel markets and inundating the state's LCFS program with compliance credits. CARB reported more than 26mn metric tonnes of credits on hand by April this year — more than enough to satisfy all new deficits generated in 2023. Staff have sought through this year's rulemaking to restore incentives to more deeply decarbonize state transportation than thought possible during revisions last made in 2019. Participants have generally supported tougher targets, with some fuel suppliers warning about potential price increases and credit generators urging CARB to take a still more aggressive approach. But proposals to limit credit generation to only 20pc of the volume of fuel a supplier made from canola, soybean and now sunflower has found little public support. Environmental opponents have argued that the CARB proposals fall short of what is necessary to add protections against cropland expansion and fuel competition with food supply. Agribusiness and some fuel producers have warned the concept, proposed in August, ran counter to the premise of a neutral, carbon-focused program and against staff's own view last spring. The proposal exceeded what CARB could do without beginning a new rulemaking, some argued. CARB yesterday proposed a grace period for facilities already using the feedstocks to continue generating credits while seeking alternatives. Facilities certified to use those feedstocks before changes are formally adopted could continue using those sources until 2028, compared to a 2026 cut off proposed in August. No facilities currently supplying California have certified sunflower feedstock, and it was not clear that any were planned. "We're not aware of any proposed pathway or lifecycle analysis for sunflower oil, so that addition is just baffling," said Cory-Ann Wind, Clean Fuels Alliance America director of state regulatory affairs. "Clearly not based in science." The latest revisions include a change to how staff communicate a new, proposed automatic adjustment mechanism (AAM). The mechanism would automatically advance to tougher, future targets when credits exceed deficits by a certain amount. Supporters consider this a more responsive approach to market conditions than the years of rulemaking effort already underway. Opponents argue such a mechanism cedes important authority and responsibility from the board. Staff proposed quarterly, rather than annual, updates on whether conditions would trigger an adjustment, and to use conditions during the most recent four quarters, rather than by calendar year. Obligations and targets would continue to work on a calendar-year basis. CARB staff clarified that verifying electric vehicle charging credits would not require site visits to the thousands of charging stations eligible to participate in the program. Staff also clarified how long dairy or swine biogas harvesting projects could continue to generate credits if built this decade, with a proposed reduction in credit periods only applying to projects certified after the new rules were adopted. California formally began this rulemaking process in early January after publishing draft proposals in late December. Regulators initially proposed adjusting 2025 targets lower by 5pc for 2025 — a one-time decrease called a stepdown — to work toward a 30pc reduction target for 2030. CARB set its sights on 21 March for adoption. But staff pulled that proposal in February as hundreds of comments in response poured in. Updated language released on 12 August proposed a steeper stepdown for 2025 of 9pc while keeping the 30pc target for 2030. Public comment on yesterday's publication will continue to 16 October. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US dockworkers, shippers strike positions entrenched


02/10/24
News
02/10/24

US dockworkers, shippers strike positions entrenched

New York, 2 October (Argus) — The US dockworker strike gripping east coast and Gulf coast container terminals may not be short-lived given the wide gap between union demands and the offer from an alliance of containership owners, terminal operators and port associations. The United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) said its latest proposal for a 50pc wage increase, made on 30 September just before the strike started, "exceeds every other recent union settlement while addressing inflation". But the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) rebuked USMX's characterization of the offer late Tuesday, saying it fails to address the many years it takes for the port workers it represents to realize the higher wages, and factors like workers being on unpaid on-call status. The last-minute timing of the 50pc wage increase offer itself undermines the USMX's position as good faith negotiators, ILA said. "[The] USMX's claim that they are ready to bargain rings hollow when they waited until the eve of the potential strike to present this offer," the ILA said. "The last offer from [the] USMX was back in February 2023." Dockworkers started to picket container terminals in New England, New York, New Jersey, Houston, Texas, New Orleans, Louisiana, and other locations on 1 October . Containership loading and unloading has come to a halt at those terminals, while no trucks where queued at unmanned loading checkpoints. The union has pointed to a perceived unfairness in record profits reported by shipping companies since the Covid-19 pandemic not being shared with ILA members who were "keeping ports open and the economy moving" during that time. The union is also sticking to demands for no new automation technology at US ports that would replace workers, describing this position as "non-negotiable", and the right to 100pc of the "container royalties" funds, a type of welfare paid out by employers to protect US longshoremen from the loss of work brought on by the containerization of cargo. No fed intervention expected US president Joe Biden continued to indicate the federal government would not intervene in the strike, saying collective bargaining between the ILA and the USMX is the best way for workers to achieve their goals. In a statement this week Biden also pointed out that the USMX "represents a group of foreign-owned [ocean] carriers" and insisted that they should "present a fair offer" to the ILA. "It is time for [the] USMX to negotiate a fair contract with the longshoremen that reflects the substantial contribution they've been making to our economic comeback," Biden said. Vice-president Kamala Harris, who is running to replace Biden, doubled-down on that position today. "This strike is about fairness," Harris said in a statement. "Foreign-owned shipping companies have made record profits and executive compensation has grown. The Longshoremen, who play a vital role transporting essential goods across America, deserve a fair share of these record profits." Few commodities curtailed for now Ports and the companies that rely on them have been anticipating the strike for many weeks . Movements of dry bulk cargo, such as coal and grains, are expected to be less affected by the work stoppage, though there could be side effects from the congestion of other products being rerouted to ports not affected by the strike. Movement of crude, refined products and many petrochemicals are not expected to be interrupted, but some polymers that are moved by container, including polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyethylene (PE), and polypropylene (PP), could be disrupted. A segment of US steel imports could also be disrupted by the strike, as about 9pc of those imports come in via containers , according to data from Global Trade Tracker. A prolonged strike could begin to curtail some downstream manufacturing of equipment that requires parts that move by containers. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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