Brazil's government increased import taxes of 30 polymers and chemicals to 20pc from 12.6pc this week, including polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC).
Another 32 chemical products remain under evaluation by Gecex, the Brazilian committee for commercial trade management. With the 18 September decision, most rates will rise and will remain at this level for 12 months.
Domestic manufacturers and chemical industries associations welcomed the decision, arguing that the measure will help level the playing field against foreign competitors who benefit from lower production costs. Brazil's chemical industry association Abiquim has been asking the government provide commercial protections for 62 products since May.
Supporters of the tax hike, including Abiquim, say it will help create jobs and strengthen Brazil's domestic economy. They also said that the increased revenue from the higher taxes can be reinvested in infrastructure and public services, further benefiting the country.
Brazilian petrochemical major Braskem said Thursday that it sees the tax increase as a positive step towards ensuring fair competition and fostering growth within the industry. Braskem produces basic chemicals, PE, PP and PVC.
The most important aspect of the tax increase is not the number of products covered, but what it represents in value, said Abiquim's executive president Andre Passos Cordeiro. "These 30 products that were approved represent about 65pc of the import volume of this set of 62 products that we had proposed to the government," he said. "They also represent 75pc of the value of this same set of imports. The decision is welcome, well-founded technically, and brings relief to the chemical industry."
The share of chemical imports in the Brazilian market soared in the last 20 years, according to Abiquim, reaching 47pc in 2023 from 21pc in 2000. In the first half of this year, the sector's trade deficit was close to $23bn, while the national industry's idle capacity reached its worst level ever.
"We were losing strength with the closure of factories and loss of jobs," Cordeiro said. "I reiterate that the government's decision was essential for us, as an industry and as Brazilians. A strong industry presupposes a strong country."
The Brazilian chemical industry is responsible for around 11pc of Brazil's GDP, according to Cordeiro
Taxes could up consumer costs
Critics of the tax hikes say they will increase costs for consumers and manufacturers who rely on imported polymers and chemicals.
Brazil's plastic industry association Abiplast said it was concerned that the higher import taxes will increase production costs for plastic products, which could result in higher prices for end consumers.
In a letter to associates, Abiplast said that the measure could hurt small- and medium-sized enterprises that do not have the same capacity as larger companies to absorb the increased costs.
The tax hike could also negatively impact the competitiveness of Brazilian products in the global market, Abiplast said. By increasing the cost of raw materials, Brazilian plastic converters may find it more challenging to compete with foreign companies that have access to cheaper inputs. That could lead to a decrease in exports and a potential loss of market share internationally.
Furthermore, opponents of the tax increase highlight that the measure could have unintended consequences on the broader economy. Higher production costs could lead to inflationary pressures, affecting the purchasing power of Brazilian consumers. They also point out that the tax increase may not necessarily lead to the desired boost in domestic production, as the domestic industry may not have the capacity to meet the increased demand for polymers and chemicals.
The letter, signed by the chairman of the association's board Jose Ricardo Roriz Coelho, also said that despite exhaustive explanations to the government about the taxes' downsides, final approval [of the tax hike] still goes through Brazil's partners in trade bloc Mercosur — Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. If validated, the measure is expected to go into effect in October and last for one year. Abiplast said it will continue battling to reverse the measure, which the association deems unreasonable.
Higher domestic prices may follow
The market is taking some notice of the new proposed measures. One US polymers exporter to Brazil told Argus that if the tax hike becomes effective, Brazilian polymers manufacturers are expected to immediately raise prices to recover their margins.
"The timing for the tax hike announcement was fine-tuned to let local producers secure additional margins in a time that sales are expected to increase in Brazil due to Christmas and New Year celebrations," one market participant told Argus.
But any drop in polymer imports into Brazil from the taxes should recover in he beginning of next year, the source said. "Brazil's polymers production is not enough to address local demand, so imports will always be needed," the source said.
Brazil's January-August PE imports surged by 45pc from the same period in 2023, reaching almost 1.4mn metric tonnes. North America had a 79pc share, while South America had another 10pc. The country also buys from Asia and the Middle East.
