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Northvolt's future unclear as Sweden rejects stake

  • Market: Battery materials, Metals
  • 20/09/24

The future of Swedish battery and cathode active material (CAM) producer Northvolt is unclear after the country's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed this week that the government will not invest in the company. Northvolt has had to cut back its expansion plans because of challenging macroeconomic and market conditions.

Northvolt's difficulties were thrown into the spotlight last week when chief executive and co-founder Peter Carlsson said the company will scale back its expansion plans for a second CAM factory in Borlange, Sweden – a facility that is intended to help ease regional dependence on imports from China which currently accounts for over 70pc of global CAM production, according to the IEA.

The adjustment at Borlange is one of several setbacks at Northvolt, whose Skellefteå factory in the far north of Sweden delivered less than 1GWh of battery production last year – enough to power around 20,000 cars and far below the plant's nameplate capacity of 16GWh. Back in June, German carmaker BMW pulled out of a €2bn ($2.2bn) order, albeit just 4pc of Northvolt's order book of $55bn, according to its 2022 annual report – underscoring the slowdown in European demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and therefore battery materials.

Carlsson maintains that the "long term outlook for cell manufacturers — including Northvolt — is strong", despite the "challenging macroeconomic environment."

And while the Swedish government has declined to invest, Northvolt did receive a €5bn ($5.58bn) loan in January — the largest loan raised by a climate tech firm in Europe to date, along with €942mn from the European Investment Bank (EIB). Overall, the company has received around €15bn ($16bn) of investments to date — in debt and equity — since its founding in 2017 by two former Tesla executives, comfortably making it Europe's best-funded start-up, ahead of fintech firm Klarna at $4.6bn.

However the road ahead is challenging and costly, and additional support will be needed. "Northvolt haven't gone under but are not going to produce any CAM material until 2026 at the earliest, so difficult times, the EU needs to step up and support," a market participant commented.

The scale of growth and support being given to China's battery and electric vehicle (EV) sectors is also compounding the difficulties raising investment for European projects. China accounted for 83pc of global battery production last year, according to the IEA, and subsidy-funded EV manufacturers CATL and BYD have continued to expand capacity this year (see graph). China has subsidised its EV industry to the tune of around $230bn between 2007 and 2023, including $45bn last year, according to a study by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"This scares off the capital from the [European] battery market. It takes a full reassessment of the industry, which takes a long time. Capital is not cheap and rate cuts are only coming in now, so it will be a while," another market participant said.

China's battery dominance continues to hamper Europe

"This narrative is bigger than Northvolt – Asian manufacturers generally and Chinese manufacturers specifically are in the lead, very clearly", said Jeffrey Chamberlain, chief executive of US-based venture fund Volta Energy Technologies.

"The idea that a start-up can catch up and manufacture cells, of equal or better quality at volume, might have been viable 10-15 years ago, but it is increasingly becoming incredibly challenging," Chamberlain said, arguing that western firms at all stages of the supply chain should sign joint ventures with China instead of engaging in direct competition, offering access to their markets with local manufacturing as well as "innovation for next-generation products".

Despite recent setbacks, Northvolt has not revised its goal of building four large factories before the end of the decade in Sweden, Germany and Canada – remaining committed to a scale of ambition that is drawing concern from some industry participants.

"The only way for success now is through strategic alliances, just look at InoBat and Gotion," said Ben Kilbey, former director at Britishvolt. "[It] feels like recent history repeating [itself]. Britishvolt was advised that it could make a battery factory in two global locations (UK and Canada) before it had made a single cell […] Now Northvolt is in a pickle and having to scale back its global, vertical integration, ambitions. And it's had around €15bn thrown at it," Kilbey added.

Chinese companies have outlined lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity for next year that far exceeds expected demand (see graph), which may further weigh on prices for component materials, squeezing the margins of any manufacturers of these materials outside China such as Northvolt.

Global EV battery installations, by supplier GWh

Announced lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity and demand in 2025 GWh

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15/10/24

Chinese steel investment needs to avoid lock in: CBI

Chinese steel investment needs to avoid lock in: CBI

Singapore, 15 October (Argus) — Chinese investment in steel assets needs to be aligned with a Paris-compatible scenario to avoid locking in emissions and stranded assets, according to a report by non-profit Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI). Almost 80pc or 730.8mn t/yr of China's existing coal-based blast furnace capacity will need to be retired or require reinvestment by 2030, CBI said in its report released last week. Steel asset lifetimes often exceed 40 years, so "investment decisions made today can lock in billions of tons of emissions and potentially billions of dollars in stranded assets", CBI added. Steel production currently accounts for around 8pc of global CO2 emissions, and almost 50pc of global steel output is from China, CBI said. China's steel sector is estimated to require at least 1.6 trillion yuan ($226bn) in fixed asset investment for decarbonisation by 2050, according to a joint report by CBI and US-based Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) earlier this year. Of the Yn1.6 trillion, 33pc should go to energy efficiency, 23pc for electric arc furnaces, 18pc for direct iron reduction (DRI), 14pc for carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), 7pc for blast furnace hydrogen injection, and 5pc for pellet manufacturing. Green bonds Steel companies can obtain financing through labelled green bonds from various categories at the project level, including energy efficiency, heat recycling, waste and resource recycle, green hydrogen, biomass, and CCUS. A total of Yn4.46 trillion of labelled green bonds had originated from China in domestic and overseas markets as of the end of 2023, according to CBI. But Chinese steel firms had only issued 23 green bonds totalling Yn3.5bn and six sustainability-linked bonds totalling Yn1.6bn by the end of last year, representing 0.1pc of the total Chinese labelled bond market. This Yn5.1bn falls very short of the estimated Yn1.6 trillion needed to decarbonise the Chinese steel sector. CBI asserts that the labelled bond and loan market can supply the required capital, but issuers operating in the steel sector must be encouraged to price deals with the recommended transparency and credibility. Recommendations Several Chinese provinces have already issued provincial-level transition finance guidance, including major steel-producing Hebei province this year. But China's national-level transition finance guidance remains under development. CBI thus recommends that the national transition taxonomy further align provincial guidelines and "enhance interoperability" between Chinese and international transition taxonomies, incentivise low-carbon production methods, customise financing for small-to-medium companies, and enhance entity-level transition plans. CBI also suggests that banks incentivise companies to enhance the quality of their information disclosure and integrate such incentives into their transition frameworks. The non-profit also urged steel companies to issue credible transition plans, which should include Paris-aligned emission-reduction targets and clear capital expenditure plans. Lastly, CBI notes that policies should support hydrogen infrastructure and supply chain development to accelerate green hydrogen deployment for high-emitting sectors. This is especially as current financing to decarbonise heavy industrial sectors have mainly been for mature technologies, such as raising energy efficiency. But green hydrogen can reduce over 90pc of steel production emissions, and steady development in hydrogen infrastructure and supply chain will cut costs and accelerate the steel transition. CBI also flagged public sector steel procurement as an avenue through which the country can boost demand for green steel, especially since Chinese public authorities buy about 350mn t/yr of steel, which causes around 689mn t/yr of CO2 emissions. Green public procurement (GPP) policies in China would also have a global impact, with steel public procurement demand in China three times that of India's total steel demand of 100mn t/yr. CDI suggests that the Chinese government accelerate adopting national-level standards to ensure consistent embodied emissions reporting, as GPP policies will only be effective when implemented with standardised methodologies. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan's Nippon Steel seeks subsidy to build new EAFs


15/10/24
News
15/10/24

Japan's Nippon Steel seeks subsidy to build new EAFs

Tokyo, 15 October (Argus) — Japanese largest steel producer Nippon Steel has applied for a government subsidy to build new electric-arc furnace (EAF) plants, aiming to accelerate its decarbonisation efforts. Nippon Steel has applied for a government subsidy that provides financial support for hard-to-abate sectors to shift their manufacturing processes to one that emits less greenhouse gases (GHG), according to the company on 11 October. Shifting crude steel production process from its conventional basic oxygen furnace (BOF) to EAF can reduce a significant volume of GHG, but it comes along with a huge amount of capital expenditure, Nippon Steel said. The subsidy amount requested by Nippon Steel is unknown, but the government will allocate a maximum of around ¥500bn ($3.3bn) for the entire funding scheme, according to the ministry of trade and industry (Meti). The subsidy application will close on 28 October. Nippon Steel plans to utilise the public fund to build a new EAF facility at its Yahata plant in the southern Kyushu area. This is to replace the existing BOF facility that is producing 3.6mn t/yr of steel products. The Japanese steel producer also aims to secure the subsidy to build another EAF plant at its Hirohata plant in west Japan area, where Nippon Steel started its first EAF commercial operations in 2022. Crude steel output at the Hirohata is a combined 460,000 t/yr from EAF and BOF facilities, according to the firm, but the breakdown was not disclosed. The Japanese government is likely to approve the Nippon Steel's request to keep the country's decarbonisation strategy on track. Japan aims to hit its net zero emission goal by 2050 and it is critical to reduce GHG emissions from the steel industry, which accounts for 35pc of total emissions in the country's manufacturing industry. Other Japanese BOF firms are also accelerating their shift to the crude steel production with scrap metal, with JFE Steel and Kobelco planning to start commercial EAF operations in 2027 and during the 2030s, respectively. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India industries confident of 2030 renewable energy aim


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

India industries confident of 2030 renewable energy aim

Mumbai, 14 October (Argus) — Indian industries are confident about reaching the country's renewable energy target of 500GW by 2030, senior executives said at the Financial Times' Energy Transition Summit in New Delhi last week. This is especially given strong capacity installation of solar and wind projects in the coming years, delegates heard. India's renewable energy capacity stands at 199.5GW as of August, a rise of 12pc on the year, data from the Central Electricity Authority show. "India's [renewable] power sector has already grown at a [compound annual growth rate] of nearly 20pc in the last 10 years … The pace at which some of the bids are coming, we should reach 500GW by 2030," said domestic utility Tata Power's chief executive officer Praveer Sinha. A record 69GW of renewable energy tenders were issued during the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, surpassing the government-mandated target of 50GW. Tata Power is operating 4.5GW installed capacity of renewable energy that produced 64.6Th of electricity in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year. It aims to add another 5GW of installed capacity in the coming years, underscoring its commitment to providing round-the-clock renewable energy through solar, wind, and pumped hydro storage projects, Sinha added. Indian steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (AMNS) also plans to add 1GW/yr of renewable energy capacity for its captive power consumption, managing director Dilip Oommen said. AMNS has developed a 975MW hybrid renewable energy project at Alamuru village in India's southern state of Andhra Pradesh. The project will generate 661MW of solar and 314MW of wind power capacity, which will be integrated with a pumped hydro storage facility owned by renewables developer Greenko to overcome the intermittent nature of wind and solar power generation, ensuring round-the-clock power. Power generated from the solar and wind sites will be connected from Andhra Pradesh's Kurnool district via a 400kV interstate transmission system up to AMNS' Hazria facility. The firm is also considering using hydrogen in its electric arc furnace, but remains skeptical about the cost economics. "At present, the cost of hydrogen is $3.50/kg," Oommen said, adding that if this falls below $2/kg, it would be feasible for commercial use at its facilities. The reduction in the cost of renewable power generation over the last few years has also raised interest in the sector, incentivising the coal-dominated eastern regions of India to adopt renewables, said Indian independent power provider Ampin Energy's chief executive officer Pinaki Bhattacharya. The domestic steel sector, one of the country's largest carbon emitters, is looking at ways to reduce emissions in light of the policies under the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which will take effect on 1 January 2026. This was echoed during a session on 9 October when India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted that India has been consistent in promoting domestic investment in renewables and establishing transmission lines. But she described CBAM as "a trade barrier" that could hurt investment in India's heavy industries and hinderthe country's transition away from fossil fuels. CBAM is a "unilateral" and "arbitrary" measure, which would "not be helpful" for India, she said, adding that India's concerns "would definitely be voiced" with the EU. Her sentiments were in line with that of commerce minister Piyush Goyal, who said last year that India will not accept any unfair taxes on steel that the EU imposes under the CBAM. Coal to renewables switch "We are not on track yet to displace coal," said Indian not-for-profit thinktank Centre for Science and Environment's director general Sunita Narain, when asked about India's transition from coal to renewables, considering that coal still dominates the country's electricity mix. Renewable energy generation capacity has currently increased to 13pc of the total electricity mix, but the country needs to hit the 35pc target by 2030, she added. India's power generation continues to rely on coal because of an abundant supply of the fuel as well as its cheaper price over other alternatives. Out of India's total installed capacity of 451GW, coal comprises 48.27pc, followed by solar at 19.84pc and wind at 10.47pc, as of August, data from government think tank Niti Aayog show. By Ankit Rathore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Korea's Posco starts output at new NCA cathode plant


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

Korea's Posco starts output at new NCA cathode plant

Singapore, 14 October (Argus) — South Korean battery materials producer Posco Future M, a subsidiary of conglomerate Posco, has begun producing nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) cathodes at its plant in Pohang ahead of schedule, citing "customer requests". The 30,000 t/yr NCA cathode plant that sits in North Gyeongsang province's Pohang city was originally planned to start production and sales in 2025. Posco Future M has another NCA plant under construction in South Jeolla province's Gwangyang city, which will have a production capacity of 52,500 t/yr. The firm in 2023 signed a 10-year deal to supply fellow battery manufacturer Samsung SDI with high-nickel NCA cathodes, which will come from some of the lines at the upcoming Gwangyang plant, it said. The company expects to reach 248,500 t/yr of cathode material production capacity by 2026, with 106,000 t/yr from Pohang and 142,500 t/yr from Gwangyang, because of the continuing electric vehicle (EV) market slowdown, it said on 14 October. These capacities are markedly lower from a goal of 320,000 t/yr by 2025 that the firm said in July last year. Posco Future M earlier in September suspended plans to build a nickel sulphate and battery precursors plant with major Chinese lithium-ion battery metal and cathode active material (CAM) manufacturer Huayou Cobalt because of an EV "chasm". The term typically refers to the adoption gap in new technologies between early adopters and mass market consumers, which may be the cause of the slowdown in ex-China EV sales. The firm in September also disclosed that it is pushing back the timeline to complete a 30,000 t/yr high-nickel CAM plant in Canada's Quebec , which is a joint venture with US automaker General Motors, citing "local conditions". The plant was supposed to be completed in the second half of 2024. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Turkey levies HRC anti-dumping duties on four countries


11/10/24
News
11/10/24

Turkey levies HRC anti-dumping duties on four countries

London, 11 October (Argus) — Turkey's ministry of trade announced that it is implementing anti-dumping duties on Chinese, Indian, Russian and Japanese hot-rolled coil (HRC) ranging from 6.10-43.31pc, effective immediately. Turkey had launched an investigation that found imports from China, India, Russia and Japan have damaged domestic production. The anti-dumping duty will be paid as a percentage of the CIF value, in addition to the existing 13-15pc tax on steel products for local consumption. The investigation was launched just after a petition was submitted by Turkish steelmakers' association TCUD on behalf of producers Colakoglu, Erdemir, Habas and Toscelik. Turkish customers, though, remain exempt from the measures if products are imported using the inwards processing regime, with a promise to process and re-export the finished product. Turkish authorities are currently to change to the inward processing regime measure. "Right now, 84pc of the exports are import-dependent," a re-roller told Argus in August. "If you prevent the inward processing regime, imports will be cut, which will negatively affect exports." Turkish mills withdrew their HRC offers today, some market participants said. By Carlo Da Cas Turkish anti-dumping duties Companies Dumping margins ( pc ) China Han Steel Group Hanbao Iron and Steel 36 Qian'an Iron & Steel of Beijing Shougang 23 Rizhao Steel Holding Group 28 Shanghai Meishan Iron and Steel 15 Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel 17 Shougang Jingtang United Iron & Steel 24.6 Zhangjiagang Hongchang Plate 26.4 Others 43.3 India Tata Steel 6 Others 9.0 Japan All companies 9.0 Russia Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Work 6,1 Novolipetsk Steel 6.1 Others 9.0 — Turkish trade ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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