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Japan pushes abatement approach to energy transition

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas
  • 23/09/24

Japan is keen to promote its energy transition approach, focused on carbon abatement technologies, to the wider coal-reliant Asia-Pacific region.

The country has accelerated development of carbon abatement technologies to keep fossil fuels in its energy mix and boost energy security and economic growth. Japan, with its G7 counterparts, pledged to phase out "unabated" coal-fired plants by 2035, or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of a 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net zero pathways".

This is a major step for Japan, a resource-poor country. But legislative progress aimed at developing value chains for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and cleaner fuels, such as hydrogen and ammonia, might have encouraged Tokyo to commit, especially since the G7 text allows for some wiggle room.To ensure continued use of its abated thermal power plants, trade and industry ministry has requested ¥11.2bn ($79mn) to support CCS projects, including exploration of CO2 storage sites, for 2025-26, up sharply from the ¥1.2bn budgeted for 2024-25.

Japan has yet to set a date to achieve the phase-out target. But it had already promised not to build new unabated coal-fired plants at last year's UN Cop 28 climate talks, while pledging to phase out "inefficient" coal-fired plants by 2030. Less than 5pc of Japan's operational coal fleet has a planned retirement year, according to analysis by Global Energy Monitor, and these might comprise the oldest and least efficient plants. Coal capacity built in the last decade, following the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear disaster, is unlikely to receive a retirement date without a countrywide policy that calls for a coal exit.

Japan's coal demand could decline, to some extent, under global divestment pressure. But the fuel remains key, as the government sees renewables and nuclear as insufficient to meet rising power demand driven by the growth of data centres needed to enable artificial intelligence.

Continental divide

The country is keen to extend its vision for "various" and "practical" pathways, including abatement technologies, to coal-reliant southeast Asia. This stems from Tokyo's sceptical view about promoting a more European approach to the energy transition — driven by wind and solar power — to Asian countries. Japan stresses the importance of more diversified pathways, including thermal power with abatement. The country aims to spur decarbonisation in Asia-Pacific through a platform called the Asia Zero Emission Community (Azec) initiated in 2022. Asia-Pacific accounts for more than half of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at 17.178bn t of CO2 equivalent, according to the IEA.

In Jakarta last month, 11 Azec countries emphasised the need to co-operate "to decarbonise coal power generation". The platform sets out options such as biogas, hydrogen and ammonia, and retrofitting with CCS and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Japan's industries have already committed to carbon abatement at coal-fired plants in Asia, leveraging their technological know-how.

Tokyo has pledged to provide about $70bn to support decarbonisation globally. This funding is part of wider financial assistance to help mobilise the estimated $28 trillion that Asia requires. To secure the funding, Japan has already issued part of a $139bn climate transition bond and aims to strengthen the financial support through the Asia Zero Emission Centre, the latest Azec initiative, under which transitional finance will be studied further, a trade and industry ministry official told Argus.

Japan is on track to reduce its GHG emissions by 46pc by the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year from its 2013-14 level, and hit its net zero emissions goal by 2050.

Japan CO2 emissions by sector

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15/10/24

Lignite displaces gas in German power mix

Lignite displaces gas in German power mix

London, 15 October (Argus) — Rallying German gas prices have pushed a significant amount of gas-fired generation out of the country's power mix this month, opening space for lignite. Average daily gas-fired generation in Germany has slipped to 3.8GW so far this month from 4.2GW in September and August and 4.1GW in July. During that time, lignite-fired generation climbed to 9GW from 7.2GW in September and August and 7.4GW in July. Coal-fired generation has also edged down to 2.9GW so far this month from just over 3GW in September, but higher than the averages of 2.3GW in August and 1.4GW in July. Meanwhile, supporting demand for thermal-fired generation, German renewables output has fallen to 30.3GW so far in October from just under 32GW in September when wind generation stepped up, but slightly above the 29.5GW in August when wind output was lower. Remaining German power demand in recent weeks has been covered by imports, which have risen to a net 3.8GW so far this month from 3.4GW in September, but remained well below the 6.2GW in August. Electricity imports from neighbouring countries such as France are occasionally cheaper than domestic generation and can help fill in gaps between German power demand and supply. A combination of changing renewable output, higher gas prices, stable lignite prices and lower emissions prices have spurred changes in the German power mix. The German THE day-ahead has risen strongly since late July and prices have rallied in recent weeks against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, German lignite-fired plants typically source fuel from nearby mines, substantially insulating domestic lignite prices from external market forces. German regulator Bnetza assumed earlier this year that domestic lignite would cost about €3/MWh in 2024-25. At the same time, near-term prices in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) — a key driver of competitiveness for German lignite-fired generation — have fallen. Prompt ETS allowances closed at €65.36/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) on Monday, down from €72.14/t CO2e on 19 August, boosting the profitability of lignite-fired plants, which are the more CO2 intensive than coal and gas. Those recent price shifts have made output from lignite-fired plants with a typical efficiency of 36pc more profitable than normal 55pc-efficient gas-fired plants as well as coal-fired stations operating at 40pc efficiency, which have also become more profitable . By contrast, in the first eight months of this year, 36pc-efficient lignite-fired plants had competed tightly with 55pc-efficient gas-fired plants even as gas prices fell to the bottom of the coal-to-gas fuel-switching range ( see fuel-switching graph ). Buffer zone More competitive lignite-fired generation has also started acting as the domestic buffer to cover gaps between supply and demand left by renewable generation ( see power generation graph ). After Germany renewable generation dropped to 26.8GW on 2-9 October from a strong 45.5GW on 26-28 September, lignite-fired generation jumped to 10.1GW from 6.4GW — a 57pc gain — while gas-fired output only rose to 3.5GW from roughly 3GW and coal-fired generation increased to 2.9GW from 2.3GW. In December-July, when the gas and lignite fuel-switching range was tight, generation from both fuels reacted similarly to fluctuations in renewable output and both plant types buffered their generation based on demand ( see power generation graph ). And forward prices assessed by Argus suggest that lignite-fired generation could remain competitive against gas and coal-fired output in the German power mix next month. As of market close today, November-dated fuel and emissions prices would place the operating costs of a 36pc-efficient lignite-fired plant during that time below those of a 55pc-efficient gas-fired plant and a 40pc-efficient coal-fired plant. That said, Germany's decreasing lignite and coal-fired generation capacity limits how much of the national power mix those plant types can provide. As of April, Germany had 82.4GW of gas-fired capacity, but just 15.1GW of lignite-fired capacity and 11.5GW of coal-fired plants, according to Bnetza. By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan's 2MW Susono biomass plant starts construction


15/10/24
News
15/10/24

Japan's 2MW Susono biomass plant starts construction

Tokyo, 15 October (Argus) — Japan's 2MW Susono biomass-fired power plant in Shizuoka prefecture has started construction today, with the aim to begin commercial operations in October 2025. The Susono plant will burn 27,000 t/yr of wood chips secured in Shizuoka to generate around 15 GWh/yr of electricity. Operating company Susono Biomass Power is held 50pc by Japanese utility Chubu Electric Power, 40pc by energy company ML Power, which is a subsidiary of financing firm Mizuho Leasing, and 10pc by renewable energy developer Prospec AZ. Those companies plan to build three other biomass-fired power plants in Gunma, Nagano, and Niigata prefectures. Each plant is expected to come on line in November 2025, April 2026, and May 2027. The three 2MW plants will burn 27,000-29,000 t/yr of locally gathered wood chips to generate around 15 GWh/yr. Chubu has invested in a number of biomass-fired power plants, including the 112MW Tahara in Aichi prefecture , which is currently under construction and aims to start commercial operations in September 2025. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption


15/10/24
News
15/10/24

IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption

London, 15 October (Argus) — The world can draw on global oil stocks and rely on Opec+ spare production capacity in case of a supply disruption erupting from the conflict between Iran and Israel, the IEA said today. In its latest Oil Market Report , the Paris-based watchdog said it was "ready to act if necessary." It said IEA public stocks alone stood at over 1.2bn bl in addition to 500mn bl held under industry obligations. The IEA also said non-member China held 1.1bn bl of crude stocks, enough to meet 75 days of domestic refinery runs. The IEA co-ordinated two emergency stock releases in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The world's reliance on stocks would become more pronounced if any supply disruption extended beyond Iran's oil industry to include flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This would threaten most Opec+ spare production capacity of more than 5mn b/d as members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are highly reliant on the waterway to export their oil. But as long as supply keeps flowing, the IEA said that the market faces a "sizeable surplus" next year. The agency's latest balances show a supply surplus of 1.11mn b/d in 2025, up by 50,000 b/d compared with its estimates last month. For this year, the agency now sees a slight surplus of 90,000 b/d, compared with a slight deficit last month. In the final quarter of this year, the IEA sees a surplus of around 200,000 b/d. Concerns over the strength of oil demand have been rising in recent months, with the IEA once again trimming its oil consumption forecast for this year. The IEA cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by another 40,000 b/d this month to 860,000 b/d, with China once again the main driver. A slowdown in China's economy remains the key drag on oil consumption growth. The IEA sees China's oil demand this year increasing by 150,000 b/d compared with 180,000 b/d in its report last month. At the start of the year the agency was guiding for growth of 710,000 b/d from China. The IEA also downgraded its estimated growth from China for next year to 220,000 b/d from 260,000 b/d last month, despite the country's recently announced stimulus packages. For next year, the agency sees oil demand growth slightly higher at 1mn b/d, up by 40,000 b/d from last month's report. But growth for both 2024 and 2025 is set to remain well below 2023's post-pandemic surge in growth of just under 2mn b/d. On global supply, the IEA kept its growth estimate broadly unchanged at 660,000 b/d. But it expects global growth to be just above 2mn b/d next year even if all Opec+ cuts are maintained. Some members of Opec+ are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts starting in December — although this is dependent on market conditions. The IEA said that the 500,000 b/d fall in Opec+ crude production in September — led by Libya — could make it easier for the alliance to implement its plan to raise output, although healthy non-Opec+ supply growth next year will remain a concern. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 22.3mn bl in August, led by a 16.5mn bl draw on crude. It also said preliminary data showed stocks fell further in September. By Aydin Calik Global oil supply/demand balance mn b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Chinese steel investment needs to avoid lock in: CBI


15/10/24
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15/10/24

Chinese steel investment needs to avoid lock in: CBI

Singapore, 15 October (Argus) — Chinese investment in steel assets needs to be aligned with a Paris-compatible scenario to avoid locking in emissions and stranded assets, according to a report by non-profit Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI). Almost 80pc or 730.8mn t/yr of China's existing coal-based blast furnace capacity will need to be retired or require reinvestment by 2030, CBI said in its report released last week. Steel asset lifetimes often exceed 40 years, so "investment decisions made today can lock in billions of tons of emissions and potentially billions of dollars in stranded assets", CBI added. Steel production currently accounts for around 8pc of global CO2 emissions, and almost 50pc of global steel output is from China, CBI said. China's steel sector is estimated to require at least 1.6 trillion yuan ($226bn) in fixed asset investment for decarbonisation by 2050, according to a joint report by CBI and US-based Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) earlier this year. Of the Yn1.6 trillion, 33pc should go to energy efficiency, 23pc for electric arc furnaces, 18pc for direct iron reduction (DRI), 14pc for carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), 7pc for blast furnace hydrogen injection, and 5pc for pellet manufacturing. Green bonds Steel companies can obtain financing through labelled green bonds from various categories at the project level, including energy efficiency, heat recycling, waste and resource recycle, green hydrogen, biomass, and CCUS. A total of Yn4.46 trillion of labelled green bonds had originated from China in domestic and overseas markets as of the end of 2023, according to CBI. But Chinese steel firms had only issued 23 green bonds totalling Yn3.5bn and six sustainability-linked bonds totalling Yn1.6bn by the end of last year, representing 0.1pc of the total Chinese labelled bond market. This Yn5.1bn falls very short of the estimated Yn1.6 trillion needed to decarbonise the Chinese steel sector. CBI asserts that the labelled bond and loan market can supply the required capital, but issuers operating in the steel sector must be encouraged to price deals with the recommended transparency and credibility. Recommendations Several Chinese provinces have already issued provincial-level transition finance guidance, including major steel-producing Hebei province this year. But China's national-level transition finance guidance remains under development. CBI thus recommends that the national transition taxonomy further align provincial guidelines and "enhance interoperability" between Chinese and international transition taxonomies, incentivise low-carbon production methods, customise financing for small-to-medium companies, and enhance entity-level transition plans. CBI also suggests that banks incentivise companies to enhance the quality of their information disclosure and integrate such incentives into their transition frameworks. The non-profit also urged steel companies to issue credible transition plans, which should include Paris-aligned emission-reduction targets and clear capital expenditure plans. Lastly, CBI notes that policies should support hydrogen infrastructure and supply chain development to accelerate green hydrogen deployment for high-emitting sectors. This is especially as current financing to decarbonise heavy industrial sectors have mainly been for mature technologies, such as raising energy efficiency. But green hydrogen can reduce over 90pc of steel production emissions, and steady development in hydrogen infrastructure and supply chain will cut costs and accelerate the steel transition. CBI also flagged public sector steel procurement as an avenue through which the country can boost demand for green steel, especially since Chinese public authorities buy about 350mn t/yr of steel, which causes around 689mn t/yr of CO2 emissions. Green public procurement (GPP) policies in China would also have a global impact, with steel public procurement demand in China three times that of India's total steel demand of 100mn t/yr. CDI suggests that the Chinese government accelerate adopting national-level standards to ensure consistent embodied emissions reporting, as GPP policies will only be effective when implemented with standardised methodologies. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Wolverine Fuels reopens Utah coal mine


14/10/24
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14/10/24

Wolverine Fuels reopens Utah coal mine

New York, 14 October (Argus) — US coal producer Wolverine Fuels has reopened Utah's Fossil Rock mine, which had sat idle for 23 years, after the state's coal output fell to its lowest level since 1992. Wolverine subsidiary Fossil Rock Resources, which owns the mine, "has produced minimal quantities of coal as a result of its rehabilitation efforts" at Fossil Rock, Wolverine vice-president of commercial operations Patrick Barrett said. The underground mine is located in Emery County, Utah, and last produced coal in 2001. Wolverine, formerly known as Bowie Resource Partners before rebranding in 2018, acquired the mine from PacifiCorp's Energy West Mining, nine years ago. Fossil Rock produced 8,611 short tons (7,811 metric tonnes) of bituminous coal in the third quarter, according to MSHA. The producer had around 76 workers at the mine last quarter, up from an average of 34 in the second quarter. Wolverine will mine coal at the Fossil Rock mine in small quantities this year. Then the plan is to have a full longwall panel developed and ready to put in place in the next two years. US Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) officially changed the status of the mine to "active" on 4 September. Back in February, US utility PacifiCorp amended its coal supply agreements with Wolverine for its Hunter and Huntington coal-fired power plants to accommodate anticipated output from Fossil Rock. The coal supply agreement contemplated coal from Fossil Rock being shipped to the Hunter plant, although coal could also be directed to the Huntington plant as needed. PacifiCorp did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Wolverine's initiative to reopen Fossil Rock comes in the wake of a September 2022 fire at American Consolidated Natural Resources' Lila Canyon mine, which is also located in Emery County. That mine was closed in January 2024. Fossil Rock hired some of Lila Canyon's former workers and purchased some of its equipment. The closure of Lila Canyon dealt a blow to Utah coal production. Output in the second quarter of this year fell to 1.03mn st, down by nearly 35pc from the same period in 2023. That was the lowest quarterly production since the fourth quarter of 1992. Some of Lila Canyon's former customers, including 1,800MW Intermountain Power plant, had to use more Colorado, Wyoming and Illinois basin coal this year. The Utah Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity on 11 July awarded Wolverine a post-performance tax credit that was tied to Wolverine's plans to add jobs in Emery County over the next five years. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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