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PE firm Elliott bids $7.3bn for Citgo assets: Update

  • Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 27/09/24

Adds reaction from Amber, details throughout.

An affiliate of private equity group Elliott Investment Management has been selected as the top bidder in an auction for US refiner Citgo, with a bid of $7.286bn.

The special master for the auction, being held in the US District Court for the District of Delaware, will need to make a final formal recommendation for the court to choose the Elliott affiliate, Amber Energy, pending a 1 October hearing with parties disputing the auction. But a final hearing to ratify the sale of over 800,000 b/d of refining capacity could be held in November.

Final bids for Citgo's US refineries, lubricant plants, midstream and retail assets were submitted on 11 June, with the auction aiming to satisfy debts owed by the company's parent firm, Venezuelan state-owned PdV.

If the sale to Amber moves forward following a successful November hearing, it will mark the largest purchase of US refining assets since Andeavor's acquisition by Marathon Petroleum in 2018.

"Amber Energy's strategy for growth includes plans to reinvest in the business and potentially pursue strategic investments that enhance the profitability of Citgo," the company said.

Citgo was not immediately available for comment.

Amber is lead by chief executive Gregory Goff, who was previously chairman, president, and chief executive officer of Andeavor. Company president Jeff Stevens is currently president of Franklin Mountain Energy, which is focused on the Permian basin. He has also been an executive officer of independent refiner and marketer Western Refining.

The company plans to keep the Citgo brand, and expects the deal to close by mid-2025.

Conditions of the deal include the buyer applying for and acquiring a license from the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, because the ultimate owner of Citgo is Venezuelan state-owned PdV, which is subject to US sanctions.

"We look forward to partnering with the people of Citgo to ensure that the company continues to operate with the highest standards of safety and reliability," Amber said.

Even though it is owned by PdV, Citgo since 2019 has operated under a board appointed by the Venezuelan opposition and vetted by the US government after the US rejected Venezuela's 2018 presidential election as illegitimate. PdV remains under control of President Nicolas Maduro's government.

Maduro has rejected the US court proceedings on selling Citgo as "theft" and the issue is likely to feature in his protracted battle with the US-backed opposition, which claims to have defeated Maduro in the July presidential election.

The court earlier this year approved a ranking order in which debtors will be paid out of proceeds, rather than allocating them on a pro rata basis. The first in line is defunct Canadian mining firm Crystallex, now owned by New York hedge fund Tenor Capital, with a $990mn claim. ConocoPhillips has a total of three claims approved by court, but only two of those are likely to be satisfied, potentially netting $1.4bn.

The next largest is a $1.5bn claim by Russian-Canadian gold miner Rusoro, while energy company Koch's minerals arm is chasing a $457mn claim.

Separate US court proceedings involve holders of $3.4bn in PdV 2020 bonds guaranteed by 50.1pc in Citgo Holding — a PdVH-owned legal entity that directly owns Citgo. In theory, the bondholders have the right to be paid first before other claimants are satisfied. The US government has blocked the bondholders' ability to pursue the claim, most recently issuing a ban that is valid until mid-October.


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15/10/24

IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption

IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption

London, 15 October (Argus) — The world can draw on global oil stocks and rely on Opec+ spare production capacity in case of a supply disruption erupting from the conflict between Iran and Israel, the IEA said today. In its latest Oil Market Report , the Paris-based watchdog said it was "ready to act if necessary." It said IEA public stocks alone stood at over 1.2bn bl in addition to 500mn bl held under industry obligations. The IEA also said non-member China held 1.1bn bl of crude stocks, enough to meet 75 days of domestic refinery runs. The IEA co-ordinated two emergency stock releases in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The world's reliance on stocks would become more pronounced if any supply disruption extended beyond Iran's oil industry to include flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This would threaten most Opec+ spare production capacity of more than 5mn b/d as members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are highly reliant on the waterway to export their oil. But as long as supply keeps flowing, the IEA said that the market faces a "sizeable surplus" next year. The agency's latest balances show a supply surplus of 1.11mn b/d in 2025, up by 50,000 b/d compared with its estimates last month. For this year, the agency now sees a slight surplus of 90,000 b/d, compared with a slight deficit last month. In the final quarter of this year, the IEA sees a surplus of around 200,000 b/d. Concerns over the strength of oil demand have been rising in recent months, with the IEA once again trimming its oil consumption forecast for this year. The IEA cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by another 40,000 b/d this month to 860,000 b/d, with China once again the main driver. A slowdown in China's economy remains the key drag on oil consumption growth. The IEA sees China's oil demand this year increasing by 150,000 b/d compared with 180,000 b/d in its report last month. At the start of the year the agency was guiding for growth of 710,000 b/d from China. The IEA also downgraded its estimated growth from China for next year to 220,000 b/d from 260,000 b/d last month, despite the country's recently announced stimulus packages. For next year, the agency sees oil demand growth slightly higher at 1mn b/d, up by 40,000 b/d from last month's report. But growth for both 2024 and 2025 is set to remain well below 2023's post-pandemic surge in growth of just under 2mn b/d. On global supply, the IEA kept its growth estimate broadly unchanged at 660,000 b/d. But it expects global growth to be just above 2mn b/d next year even if all Opec+ cuts are maintained. Some members of Opec+ are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts starting in December — although this is dependent on market conditions. The IEA said that the 500,000 b/d fall in Opec+ crude production in September — led by Libya — could make it easier for the alliance to implement its plan to raise output, although healthy non-Opec+ supply growth next year will remain a concern. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 22.3mn bl in August, led by a 16.5mn bl draw on crude. It also said preliminary data showed stocks fell further in September. By Aydin Calik Global oil supply/demand balance mn b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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California passes minimum gasoline reserve bill


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

California passes minimum gasoline reserve bill

Houston, 14 October (Argus) — California governor Gavin Newsom (D) on Monday signed AB X2-1 into law, authorizing the state's energy regulator to require refiners to maintain minimum gasoline inventories. The bill is the latest in a multi-year legislative effort by Newsom to mitigate price spikes at the pump and authorizes the California Energy Commission (CEC) to regulate, develop and impose requirements for in-state refiners to maintain minimum stocks of gasoline and gasoline blending components. The CEC would have the authority to penalize refiners who fail to comply. A minimum road fuels inventory requirement is unprecedented in the US but has been implemented in various forms in Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines and Mexico. While the bill was signed into law Monday, no mandate on refiners is imminent as the CEC will now begin the process of assessing how to structure and implement a minimum reserve rule. Industry group Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) that has long opposed Newsom's regulation of the oil and gas industry called AB X2-1 a "smokescreen" for impending higher gasoline taxes in California and have previously deemed the minimum stock requirement a misdiagnosis of a broader problem. "You couldn't pay me enough to regurgitate the talking points of WSPA," Newsom said in a press conference today and referred to the industry group and the oil industry at large as the "polluted heart of the climate crisis". By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Guyana crudes pressured by end of Libya blockade, TMX


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

Guyana crudes pressured by end of Libya blockade, TMX

Houston, 14 October (Argus) — The restoration of Libyan crude production and an influx of heavy-sour Canadian grades to the US west coast has pressured light sweet Guyana crudes to their widest differential against Argus North Sea Dated since the assessments launched in February. Values for Guyana crudes Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold fell by 20-80¢/bl last week as offer levels fell swiftly. Liza reached a $1.20/bl discount against North Sea Dated, Unity Gold fell to a 35¢/bl discount and Payara Gold a 33¢/bl discount. Liza and Unity Gold fell to their lowest value since Argus began to assess the grades, while Payara Gold fell to its lowest level since mid-March. European refiners had turned toward Guyana after the 26 August start of the Libyan oil blockade , with imports rising by around 200,000 b/d to almost 456,000 b/d in September, according to data analytics firm Vortexa, reflecting the highest flows on that route since March. Libya has since recovered to more than 1mn b/d of production after the country's oil blockade ended on 3 October, according to data from state-owned oil company NOC published last week. Output in September was less than half of pre-blockade levels, with Libya's crude exports down to 460,000 b/d in that month compared with 1.02mn b/d in August, according to Kpler data. Projected October Guyana exports to Europe are 205,000 b/d lower than September at only 193,000 b/d, Vortexa data shows. TMX takeover Guyana prices also could be under pressure from added competition on the Americas Pacific coast from crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline. In May, before the startup of TMX, Guyanese exports to the US totaled 68,000 b/d, data from Vortexa shows. Refiners did not purchase any Guyanese grades in June and August, and imports in July and September were more than halved from May levels at 32,000 b/d and 29,000 b/d, respectively. Vortexa estimates October deliveries will only amount to less than 29,000 b/d, a 57pc decrease since the start of TMX. TMX has quickly become a valuable crude source to US west coast refiners, displacing many Latin American grades in the process. Ecuadorean crude imports have trended lower since May, and were down by 30pc from June-September compared to a year earlier. Crude volumes arriving at Panama's PTP pipeline from Colombia — a common way US west coast refiners receive Colombian crude — have also trended lower since July. September crude receipts of Colombian grades into Panama have fallen from 173,000 b/d in July to 50,000 b/d in September. By Rachel McGuire and Joao Scheller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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High inventories dampen German heating oil demand


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

High inventories dampen German heating oil demand

Hamburg, 14 October (Argus) — Demand for heating oil in Germany fell last week as a result of high consumer stocks, contrary to sellers' expectations of continued buying. Private heating oil tanks were on average 61pc full on 10 October, an increase of almost two percentage points from the same time in 2023 and more than three percentage points from 2022, data from Argus MDX show. Consumers have in recent weeks been taking advantage of lower distillate prices to stock up on heating oil ahead of winter. Heating oil prices in September reached their lowest since June 2023. Although there was a sharp rise in prices at the start of October, sellers experienced another surge in demand. This was driven by consumers buying because of escalating tensions in the Middle East and a subsequent jump in Ice gasoil futures. But demand for heating oil fell significantly in the middle of last week, largely because consumers had stocked up sufficiently and no longer felt the need to buy at a premium. A logistical bottleneck for deliveries further reduced demand. Demand for imported diesel is also decreasing. An economic slowdown in Germany continues to suppress diesel demand. This trend could continue until at least the end of the year, federal government data show. Operators are able to run barges at full capacity. This, coupled with overall low demand, is leading to a fall in freight costs from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub into Germany. There is increased domestic supply in western Germany. A major supplier at Shell's 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery resumed spot sales of heating oil and diesel last week, having halted them because of an unplanned unit shutdown. By Natalie Mueller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Permian producers face new headwinds


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

Permian producers face new headwinds

London, 14 October (Argus) — Growing associated gas production and rising breakeven prices for new oil wells are creating fresh challenges for Permian producers. Oil output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico is growing more slowly than expected. The EIA revised down forecasts for 2024 Permian production in this month's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) following changes to historical output data. Permian production is now forecast to rise by 6.1pc this year and 3.6pc next, down from 7.8pc and 3.9pc, respectively, a month ago. Activity in the Permian oil and gas sector edged down in the third quarter, firms participating in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey say. Low Waha natural gas trading hub prices prompted about a third of 23 active exploration and production (E&P) firms to curtail production, and another third to either delay and defer drilling or well completions. Permian gas prices were negative — meaning that sellers pay buyers to take gas — for most of the six months before early September, as associated gas production exceeded pipeline capacity to move it to market. But Waha prices turned positive again last month as gas began to flow out of the region along the new Matterhorn Express pipeline. Deliveries on the 2.5bn cf/d (25bn m³/yr) Matterhorn pipeline have averaged about 600mn cf/d this month, Gelber & Associates analysts say. Flows are expected to ramp up to full capacity before the end of 2024, but robust associated gas production in the Permian remains a constant factor. The Permian basin now accounts for around a fifth of US natural gas production and is the fastest-growing source of new supply, as rising oil output adds increasing volumes of associated gas (see graph). The GOR — the average ratio of gas output ('000 cf) to oil production (bl) — in the Permian has increased from around 2 to over 3.5 since 2012, data from analysts Novi Labs show. The GOR for Permian wells typically rises during the life of a well. The GOR for Midland wells trebles from 1 to 3 after five years of production and nearly doubles for Delaware wells from just over 2 to just over 4. So the GOR inevitably rises as the share of legacy wells in overall output grows. Tiers for fears Firms are also using up the better drilling locations. Shale is not a uniform resource. Despite impressive advances in productivity over the past decade, rock quality remains the most important driver of well performance. Operators target high-quality (tier 1) wells first if they can, leaving lower-quality tier 2–4 wells for later, hoping that improvements in drilling and completion technology and efficiency will offset poorer yields. Less than two-fifths of the 25,000 drilling sites estimated to remain in the Midland basin offer a breakeven below $60/bl over a two-year period, according to a new assessment by Novi Labs using detailed rock quality data and incorporating the impact of infill well spacing patterns (see graph). Results reflect huge geologic variation within the basin and yield a weighted-average breakeven of $74/bl for the potential inventory of undrilled Midland wells. "Average tier 1 rock breaks even on average at $60/bl, but that number for tier 4 rises to $96/bl," Novi's Ted Cross says. For comparison, breakeven WTI prices for drilling a new oil well in the Midland basin ranged from $40-85/bl and averaged $62/bl, according to 87 E&P firms surveyed by the Dallas Fed in March (see graph). Over the past five years, average breakeven prices for new Midland oil wells from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey increased by a just over a third from $46/bl. In 2020, Midland breakeven prices ranged from $30-60/bl. Midland basin remaining well locations Permian oil and gas production Breakeven prices for new wells survey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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