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Latest market news

Brazil's EV sales hit record high in 2024

  • Market: Electricity, Emissions, Metals
  • 06/01/25

Brazil's sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increased by 90pc to a record 177,360 units in 2024, according to the electric vehicle association ABVE.

EV sales last year rose from 93,930 units in 2023. That includes battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), micro hybrid and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and flex HEVs.

Disregarding micro hybrid units, which are not considered fully electrical, EV sales reached 173,530 last year, an 85pc increase from 2023.

Plug-in market rising

Sales of plug-in vehicles — including PHEVs and BVEs — totaled almost 125,625 in 2024, representing a 71pc of total EV sales and more than double from the 52,360 units sold in 2023.

The expansion of the recharging infrastructure in Brazil drove the plug-in market growth, reducing concerns about the utilization of EVs in long-distance travels.

There were more than 12,000 charging stations in the country as of early December, according to charging station management platform Tupi Mobilidade.

Hybrid vehicles without external chargers — such as HEVs, flex HEVs and MHEVs — accounted for 29pc of total sales in 2024, with around 51,735 units, a 24pc hike from 2023.

Sao Paulo keeps leading the way

Southeastern Sao Paulo state remained the leader of EV sales in Brazil, with nearly 56,820 units sold and accounting for 32pc of total sales, followed by federal district Brasilia, with 9pc.

Rio de Janeiro, Parana and Santa Catarina states represented 7.2pc, 6.8pc and 6.5pc, respectively, of Brazil's EVs sales.

By Maria Albuquerque

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17/07/25

Alcoa's global Al output up, bauxite and alumina fall

Alcoa's global Al output up, bauxite and alumina fall

Sydney, 17 July (Argus) — US producer Alcoa's aluminium output increased on the year in April-June despite the months-long closure of its San Ciprián aluminium smelter in Spain. But its bauxite and alumina output fell in the quarter. Aluminium Alcoa smelted 572,000t of aluminium in April-June, up by 5.3pc on the year, the company said in a quarterly report on 17 July. It has maintained its 2025 aluminium production guidance at 2.3mn-2.5mn t, which it set in January. The increase came from the continued ramp-up of its 447,000 t/yr Alumar smelter in Brazil. It operates the smelter with Australian producer South32 . The two companies reopened the aluminium smelter in 2024 after a nine-year production halt. Alcoa's Alumar ramp-up offset production declines from the shutdown of its San Ciprián aluminium smelter in Spain. The company initially paused production at the 228,000 t/yr plant in December 2021. It began a phased restart in early 2024 , but paused it in late-April 2025 because of a major power outage. Alcoa will fully restart the plant by mid-2026 with the support of energy solutions provider Ignis Equity Holdings. Alcoa shipped 581,000t of produced aluminium in April-June, as well as 53,000t of third-party aluminium, pushing down its total shipments by 6.5pc on the year ( see table ). The company also reduced its 2025 aluminium shipment guidance to 2.5mn-2.6mn t from its April forecast of 2.6mn-2.8mn t because of the San Ciprián shutdown. Alcoa, like many other global aluminium producers, faced tariff pressures in April-June. The company redirected some Canadian-produced aluminium away from the US over the quarter, it told investors. Alcoa expects tariffs to cost $90mn in July-September. US tariffs similarly cost UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto in April-June . It paid $712/t of aluminium shipped to the US over the quarter, the company told investors on 16 July. Bauxite and alumina Alcoa produced 9.3mn t of bauxite and 2.4mn t of alumina in April-June, down by 2.1pc and by 7.4pc on the year respectively. It shut its 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery in late 2024, reducing its production capacity. The company has maintained its 2025 calendar year alumina production guidance at 9.5mn-9.7mn t, unchanged from April. It also cut its produced alumina shipments in the quarter to 2.4mn t, down from 2.6mn t a year earlier, but this was supplemented by third-party shipments. The company maintained its 2025 alumina shipment guidance at 13.1mn-13.3mn t. Alcoa will ship more alumina than it produces in 2025 because it plans to use third-party sales as a substitute for Kwinana production to meet existing shipment obligations. By Avinash Govind Alcoa quarterly report mn t Apr-Jun '25 Apr-Jun '24 y-o-y Change (%) Jan-Jun '25 Jan-Jun '24 YTD Change (%) Production Bauxite 9.3 9.5 -2.1 18.8 19.6 -4.1 Alumina 2.4 2.5 -7.4 4.7 5.2 -9.7 Aluminium 0.6 0.5 5.3 1.1 1.1 4.7 Shipments Alumina (produced) 2.4 2.6 -8.1 4.7 5.2 -9.9 Alumina shipments (other) 3.3 3.3 -0.2 6.5 6.6 -2.3 Aluminium (produced) 0.6 0.6 -2.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 Aluminium (other) 0.05 0.1 -36.6 0.1 0.2 -43.4 — Alcoa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US probes Brazil deforestation as trade issue

16/07/25
News
16/07/25

US probes Brazil deforestation as trade issue

Sao Paulo, 16 July (Argus) — The US Trade Representative (USTR) launched an investigation into illegal deforestation in Brazil to determine if it undermines the competitiveness of US timber and agricultural industries. The investigation will "seek to determine whether [the Brazilian government's] acts, policies and practices" related to illegal deforestation "are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict US commerce," namely US timber and agricultural producers. Brazil is a major producer of timber and agricultural goods, but much of that growth has been through widespread environmental destruction, including in the Amazon rainforest, and coversion of that land to grow crops. Brazil has taken measures to combat the deforestation, however, leading to a 32pc decline in deforestation in 2024 from a year prior, according to its space institute Inpe. It also reduced wildfires in the first half of 2025 by 66pc from the same period a year before , according to its environment ministry. The country has set a goal of eliminating deforestation by 2030. Brazil's federal government has also worked to strengthen funds to combat deforestation and climate change, such as the Amazon fund and the Climate fund . The latter was set up in 2008 but suspended in 2019 during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, a climate skeptic. The current administration has since reinstated it. Brazil's current federal administration has also put environmental issues at the forefront of its policies , seeking to become a leader in that area. This includes highlighting the issues during its hosting of the G20 summit last year , the Brics summit earlier this month, and hosting the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November. But some government initiatives — such as the push to drill the environmentally-sensitive equatorial margin — have drawn backlash from climate groups . An environmental licensing bill currently held up in the lower house is also receiving criticism from environmentalists and the environment ministry because it exempts some sectors, such as forms of agriculture that opening large areas for crops or cattle, from needing to obtain environmental licenses. Climate agency Observatorio do Clima called it "the largest legal setback since the creation of Brazil's constitution." Deforestation will be one of the country's flagship issues during the Cop 30 summit, including promoting the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) initiative, a fund to preserve global tropical forests. USTR's investigation comes a week after US president Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil as of 1 August, citing both unfair practices by Brazil and the ongoing trial of Bolsonaro , which he called "a witch hunt". The investigation will also probe the access of Brazilian ethanol into the US market , digital trade and electronic payment services, anti-corruption interference and intellectual property protection. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

16/07/25
News
16/07/25

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF held its 2025 GDP growth forecast steady at 0.1pc in its July survey but warned the outlook could deteriorate if the US raises tariffs to 30pc. The survey of 43 analysts maintained projections for year-end inflation at 4pc and for the central bank's benchmark interest rate to fall from 8pc to 7.5pc by the end of 2025. The sharpest variation came in formal employment, after Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported a net loss of 139,444 formal jobs in the second quarter. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 160,000 from 190,000 in June — the seventh and largest downgrade this year. Job losses increased in April, May and June, "a situation not seen since the pandemic in 2020," IMEF said. "If this trend is not reversed, the net number of formal jobs could fall to zero by year-end." "It is still too early to call it a recession, but the rise in job losses is worrying," said Victor Herrera, head of economic studies at IMEF. "The next risk we face is in auto plants. Some halted production after the 25pc US tariff was imposed in April. They did not lay off workers right away — they sent them home with half pay. But if this is not resolved in the next 60-90 days, layoffs will follow." The July survey was conducted before US president Donald Trump said on 12 July he would raise tariffs on Mexican goods from 25pc to 30pc starting 1 August. "What we have seen in the past is that when the deadline comes, the tariffs are postponed or canceled," Herrera said. "Hopefully, that happens again. If not, you can expect GDP forecasts to shift into contraction territory." While the full impact would vary by sector, Herrera said the effective average tariff rate would rise from 4pc to 15pc, with most exports either exempt or subject to reduced rates under regional content rules. But 8–10pc of auto exports would face the full 30pc duty. IMEF expects the peso to end 2025 at Ps20.1/$1, stronger than the Ps20.45/$1 estimate in June. But the group warned that rising Japanese rates — which influence currency carry trades — and falling Mexican rates could put renewed pressure on the peso once the dollar rebounds. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast dropped to 1.3pc from 1.5pc, while the peso is seen ending that year at Ps20.75/$1, slightly stronger than the previous Ps20.90/$1 forecast. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU states to reach stance on 2040 climate goal in Sep

16/07/25
News
16/07/25

EU states to reach stance on 2040 climate goal in Sep

Brussels, 16 July (Argus) — EU member states' position on the bloc's 2040 climate target should be finalised on 18 September, after a "very tight process", Danish climate and energy minister Lars Aagaard said today. "There are also some in this room who think that the answer to competitiveness challenges is to abandon climate targets. That is not what I hear a majority of European countries want," Aagaard told the European Parliament's energy committee today. Aagaard is overseeing the process, as Denmark holds the six-month rotating EU council presidency until the end of the year. The European Commission earlier this month formally proposed a 2040 goal of a 90pc cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, from 1990 levels. The bloc will then use the 2040 target to submit a climate plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), for a timeframe to 2035, to UN climate body the UNFCCC. Aargaard will need parliament's approval of the update — the 2040 target — to the bloc's 2021 climate law. But Czech ECR conservative Alexander Vondra referred to voices that see the commission's proposed 90pc net GHG cut as "too draconian". Vondra also called for more flexibility in the use of international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The commission proposes limiting their use for domestic reductions to only 3pc of 1990 GHG emissions. "This 3pc is good for a couple of multinationals, some richer states. Poor states, small companies have no chance. Are you willing to compromise, to give more flexibility?" Vondra asked. Former environment committee chair Pascal Canfin called for robust "flexibilities" when using international carbon credits. "Robust means that it cannot be within the ETS. It has to be negotiated by the commission itself and not having 27 [member state] parallel negotiations," Canfin, a French liberal Renew member, said. Aagaard did not expand beyond previous statements about "general support" among member states on Article 6 credits, and the need to maintain integrity and credibility. He added that EU states have questioned the "how" and not the "why" of the flexibility mechanism. "And then, of course, there is a discussion between the member states in relation to the volume," Aagaard said. Spanish Patriots member Hermann Tertsch said his group "will also monitor parliament's timetable, raising concerns about possible deliberate delays, as the group explicitly expressed resistance to the bill." The far-right group opposes a 90pc reduction target for 2040 but has been allocated the legal file. Any delay to the 2040 target would raise questions about the timing of the bloc's NDC submission that itself is to be derived from the 2040 target. The NDC has to be submitted ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, in November. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits

16/07/25
News
16/07/25

US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits

New York, 16 July (Argus) — A group of small oil refiners asked US officials at a recent meeting to not just grant exemptions from years-old biofuel blend mandates but to also provide lucrative program credits they can sell to other companies. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed record-high biofuel blend mandates for the next two years, but farm groups fear that a backlog of exemption requests threaten those targets. There are more than 180 unresolved exemption requests stretching over 10 years after courts struck down various denials during former-president Joe Biden's term. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refiners and importers must annually blend biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. But refiners that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude and can prove "disproportionate economic hardship" are able to request full exemptions which can mean tens of millions of dollars in reduced compliance costs. In a 20 May meeting with EPA officials, a coalition of small refiners made the case that President Donald Trump's administration should not just grant broad relief from 2019-2022 mandates but also issue "replacement RINs" for any refiners that already complied. EPA should issue these RINs "with adequate lead time" before compliance deadlines and ensure they have "adequate shelf life", according to a proposal shared with EPA by a coalition lawyer and obtained by Argus through a Freedom of Information Act request. The agency should even consider giving companies more credits than they submitted if RINs are cheaper now, the group argued. RINs from those years are otherwise expired and would be useless if returned as is. "Hardship relief is more critical now than ever", the group of 14 companies argues, given rising biofuel quotas. The issue is politically tricky for EPA, since widespread waivers threaten biofuel and crop demand, and has been the subject of numerous court fights over the years. The first Trump administration handed out exemptions generously , but current officials have not yet staked out a clear position. EPA told Argus it is taking steps "to reduce the backlog as soon as possible". Living RIN the past EPA could potentially return credits on a staggered timeline or impose conditions on their use to avert market turmoil, according to lawyers and lobbyists experienced in waiver issues. The proposal alludes to this, noting however that "any conditions on RIN return that are intended to address potential market reactions must strike the appropriate balance to ensure flexibility to small refineries". Biofuel groups have lobbied against retroactive waivers but said that EPA could minimize the damage by making other oil companies blend more biofuels. The agency should ensure that any exemptions "will be made up in the market", said Emily Skor, president of ethanol lobby Growth Energy, at a hearing last week. But the refiners' proposal argues that EPA is not required to do so if it grants exemptions retroactively. The agency has estimated future exemptions when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend — frustrating large producers that then shoulder more of the burden of meeting high-level targets — but doing the same with past-year waivers is more legally risky. The small refiners float a less aggressive approach for other compliance years. The proposal notably makes no reference to petitions for relief from 2016-2018 quotas. EPA under Biden rejected 31 petitions for those years but did not require companies to surrender additional RINs, potentially making any push for extra relief a tougher sell despite courts' skepticism of the underlying denials. And for 2023 and beyond, the refiners say that EPA should rely on "merit-driven scoring". EPA already consults with the Department of Energy, which scores hardship for individual applicants, though the importance of this feedback has varied over the program's history. The coalition also wants EPA to rescind three 2023 compliance year denials issued during the final days of Biden's term, which affected two Calumet refineries and one CVR Energy refinery. RINto the future The coalition's proposal is notable since small refiners — apart from a handful recently calling for a "seat at the table" — have largely not publicized their asks of the Trump administration, leading traders to speculate wildly on policy shifts. RIN prices have been volatile as a result. The coalition includes 14 companies that submitted 41 petitions that courts have told EPA to reconsider as well as 37 requests for more recent years, the proposal says. They are represented by independent attorney Claudia O'Brien, who did not respond to a request for comment. The documents obtained by Argus do not list all companies involved in the effort, but lawyers for Calumet, Par Pacific and Placid Refining were scheduled to attend the May meeting in person with top EPA appointees Aaron Szabo and Alexander Dominguez, while others attended virtually. O'Brien said in a separate email that Hunt Refining, REH Company, and Ergon were part of the coalition. The policy requests represent the position of one group and not necessarily all 34 refineries EPA estimates are eligible for future waivers. It is not clear how officials responded at the meeting or what options they are weighing now. EPA wants to finalize new blend mandates before November and has said it plans to communicate its approach to exemptions beforehand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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