Unfavourable weather conditions in Russia ranging from unseasonal frost events to lengthy dry spells over the past three months have led to volatility in the Black Sea milling wheat markets. All eyes are now on the first harvest results across the region for further indications of what supply in the 2024-25 marketing year (July 2024 – June 2025) is likely to look like.

This paper covers:

  • Sharp cuts to Russia's wheat production forecast for 2024-25 have been followed by cautious optimism that the crop will fare better than expected a few weeks ago
  • Harvest pressure in Europe and elsewhere is weighing on prices
  • Markets are waiting for more definite first results from the harvests that have started earlier in the Black Sea

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