Shifting incentives bring uncertainty, limit liquidity in spot California R99 markets
Summer has brought record low R99 cash prices — and nearly 3.2mn bl of vessel-supplied renewable diesel — to key California distribution hubs, but those seeking to take long-term supply positions must grapple with changing incentive programs and yet unseen consequences for supply flows.
Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the future of RD supply is murky. Changing credit eligibility could discourage the volume of imports the west coast has grown accustomed to, domestic refining margins at the US Gulf coast have been indicated on the decline for much of the year, and a volatile underlying CARB diesel basis increases participants’ exposure to price risk.
Cash prices for R99 at the head of the pipeline (hop) in Los Angeles hit their lowest level in Argus series history on 6 August, when a downturn in the underlying CARB diesel basis pressured values to just $2.35/USG. The price slide, coupled with anecdotally unworkable spreads to local rack prices, weighed heavily on activity this summer, despite a steady stream of offshore shipments.
Deliveries via vessel to northern California in August were the second highest in Argus history at an estimated 741,000 bl — the latest in steady monthly increases since June — per data aggregated from bills of lading and global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Jones Act vessels from the US Gulf coast alone accounted for 448,000 bl, while shipments ex-Singapore constituted the remaining volume.
Southern California received an estimated 847,000 bl, almost evenly split between offshore suppliers and those at the US Gulf coast.
But the future of renewable diesel supply flows into California is mired with uncertainty surrounding incentives for both importers and domestic refiners. The BTC is set to expire with the 2024 calendar year, giving way to the IRA’s Clean Fuel Production Credit. The change would heavily favor US-based renewable diesel production and reduce awards for high-volume offshore imports to the US west coast, the latest pivot for an adolescent market that has struggled to achieve supply equilibrium.
Waterborne renewable diesel deliveries to California ports
Neste — the leading offshore supplier of US R99 — is also slated to undergo turnarounds at both its Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Singapore facilities this quarter, followed by a second short-term Singapore turnaround in the fourth quarter. But the import lineup so far does not reflect a disruption in deliveries to the US this quarter.
At home, refining margins at the US Gulf coast are indicated on the upswing after narrowing through early August.
Renewable diesel deliveries to the west coast by rail from other US regions reached a record-high of nearly 2mn bl in May, per data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments by vessel are also trending higher, with an estimated 864,000 bl delivered to California in August — the highest since November.
Spot R99 markets in California were little tested at the end of August, although both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets drew support from a controversial surprise proposal to limit California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation for renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oils. The California Air Resources Board will also consider a one-time tightening of annual carbon reduction targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023, per a 12 August release.
But an unsteady economic landscape for domestic production remains a key decision-driver among US refiners.
Vertex Energy will begin reversing a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to conventional fuel feedstocks this quarter at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. The company at the time cited headwinds in the renewable fuels market that it expects to persist through 2025.
Author: Jasmine Davis, Editor, Associate Editor – Oil Products
Spotlight content
Related news
East-west marine biodiesel spread near six-month low
East-west marine biodiesel spread near six-month low
London, 6 September (Argus) — The east-west marine biodiesel spread narrowed amid firm demand for the B24 blend in Singapore and lacklustre spot marine biodiesel demand in northwest Europe in recent sessions. The east-west marine biodiesel spread — the premium held by B30 used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) dob ARA to B24 Ucome dob Singapore — was marked at $47.50/t on 5 September, its narrowest since 19 March. The spread narrowed amid a noted increase in demand from Asian-based shipowners who embark on voyages to Europe ahead of the implementation of FuelEU Maritime regulations in Europe next year — according to market participants. The latter had also reported an increase in B24 demand in Singapore from containerships seeking scope 3 emissions rights that can then be passed on to cargo owners. Scope 3 emissions rights can be obtained on a mass-balance system, allowing shipowners flexibility with regards to the port at which a blend can be bunkered. Argus assessed B24 dob Singapore prices at an average of $720.70/t on 1 July–5 September this year, compared with $757.70/t on 8 February–28 June following the launch of the B30 Ucome dob ARA price on 8 February. Consequently, the east-west marine biodiesel spread was marked at an average of $95.34/t on 1 July–5 September, compared with $74.57/t on 8 February–28 June. A wider east-west spread would incentivise shipowners to opt for the B24 blend in Singapore rather than ARA, when operationally viable, to meet the voluntary scope 3 demand from their customers. Rising demand in the Singapore bunkering hub was further supplemented by higher sales of marine biodiesel blends at the port. According to official data released by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, sales of marine biodiesel blends in the second quarter of the year were marked at about 161,400t — higher by 34,500t from the previous quarter. This was also higher by 52,600t from the second quarter of last year. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Mexico City, 5 September (Argus) — Service providers for Mexico's Pemex are unable to submit new invoices for services performed nearly a year ago even as the state-owned company also struggles to pay down past bills, sources say. These unsubmitted invoices do not appear in Pemex's financial records or in its monthly supplier debt reports, three Pemex suppliers who work mostly in the northern region of the Gulf of Mexico told Argus . Pemex provides vendors a system to submit bills for review and processing, leading to an invoice codifying payments and discounts (Copades). At this stage, Pemex certifies the pending invoice, making it part of the company's monthly supplier report —a transparency measure implemented in 2021. Pemex reduced its overdue debts to service providers by 6pc from May-July, with Ps126.4bn ($6.78bn) in unpaid invoices as of 31 July, down from Ps133.9bn in May. But a significant amount of unbilled work remains because Pemex has not issued the necessary Copades for vendors to begin the payment process, and some of the bills date back to work performed in September, according to two of the vendors. Without the Copades, companies must classify these debts as uncollectible, one vendor said. The issue is concentrated in Mexico's northeast maritime region, where Pemex produces about half of its crude and gas output, according to the vendors. This region includes the Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zap fields. Pemex has requested vendors to perform tasks in the area, but the company then claims there is no budget allocated for those bills, the vendors said. This unbilled work adds to Pemex's recognized debt to suppliers, but the size of this unrecognized debt is impossible to estimate, the vendors added. Pemex's unpaid invoices and short-term vendor debts stand at record-high levels, despite receiving over $70bn in government support since 2019. By Edgar Sigler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Roadblocks across Colombia cut LPG supply
Roadblocks across Colombia cut LPG supply
Bogota, 5 September (Argus) — Colombia's LPG shortages are worsening as a fourth day of protests and roadblocks over higher diesel prices are limiting production and distribution. Protesters have completely blocked roads to processing plants in the key Cusiana and Cupiagua fields, preventing trucks from moving supply. Those two fields along with the Ty Gas processing plant handle 41pc of the country's LPG supply, LPG association (Agremgas) director Sara Velez told Argus . Colombia uses about 60,000 metric tonnes (t)/month of LPG. The Cusiana plant that produces about 15,000t/month of LPG is flaring 100t/d of LPG that cannot be transported, Velez said. "If Cusiana is unable to move out the LPG, it may force it to shut in, affecting natural gas as well," Velez said. Blockades are also preventing LPG produced at the 250,000 b/d Barrancabermeja and the 200,000 b/d Cartagena refineries from reaching distributors. The refineries produce 24pc of the country's LPG supply, equivalent to 14,400t/month. Adding to troubles, multiple rebel attacks have put sections of the country's 220,000 b/d Cano Limon-Covenas and the 120,000 b/d Bicentenario crude pipelines out of service for repairs, restricting crude supply to the refineries. The smaller LPG field of Capacho controlled by Canadian oil company Parex shut in 5,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), or about 10pc of its Colombian output. That reduced LPG supplies to the Arauca department, the LPG association added. The departments of Caqueta, Cundinamarca and Valle del Cauca have inventories for four days. Another 28 departments have LPG inventory for one or two days. Velez has called on the government to create a safe corridor to help LPG reach consumers. The LPG shortage is also affecting industries. Fenavi, the country's poultry association, consumes 42mn kg/yr of LPG, which is equivalent to state-controlled Ecopetrol's monthly LPG production. The LPG is used to warm the poultry, but the association also said that blockades have also cut supplies of feed and could put the chickens at risk of starvation. The country produces 1.8mn tonnes/yr of chickens and 1.6bn eggs/yr. In Colombia 1.2mn families already still cook with wood, and the current shortage will likely increase that number. By Diana Delgado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Idemitsu completes biofuel trial for bunkering vessels
Idemitsu completes biofuel trial for bunkering vessels
Tokyo, 5 September (Argus) — Japanese refiner Idemitsu has completed a test of mixed biofuel using fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) for bunkering vessels in the Hokkaido area ahead of commercial use. Idemitsu carried out a trial for 10 months starting in September 2023, using a 24pc Fame mixture of used cooking oil collected from convenience stores in Hokkaido with existing marine fuel oil. The mixed biofuel can be used in the same applications as existing marine fuel oil without any changes to equipment specifications or operating conditions in cold climates, Idemitsu said. Mixed biofuel is able to cut 20pc of carbon dioxide compared with existing marine fuel oil. But there has been difficulty in using it in sub-zero temperatures, which results in solidification and oxidation. Idemitsu will increase use of the bio-mixed marine fuel to areas other than Hokkaido, in its effort to achieve the country's 2050 decarbonisation goal. By Reina Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.