Weight of Freight: TMX spurs new Aframax, VLCC trade in Pacific basin
The first three months of Canada's Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) have sent a surge of crude to refiners in California and China, shifting tanker demand in the Pacific basin.
The 590,000 b/d TMX project nearly tripled the capacity of Trans Mountain’s pipeline system to 890,000 b/d when it opened on 1 May, linking Alberta's oil sands to Canada's west coast for direct access to lucrative Pacific Rim markets, where buyers are eager for heavy sour crude.
Between 20 May, when the first TMX cargo began loading, and 20 August, about 165,000 b/d of Vancouver crude exports landed at ports on the US west coast, primarily in California, up from about 30,000 b/d in that same span last year, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.
The freight rate for a Vancouver-US west coast Aframax shipment averaged $1.98/bl for Cold Lake between 1 May and 20 August. This ranged from a low of $1.50/bl from 1-3 May when shipowners repositioned to the region in anticipation of TMX to a high of $2.32/bl from 13-14 June, according to Argus data.
The new oil flow into the US west coast has displaced shipments from farther afield in Ecuador and Saudi Arabia. Crude exports from those countries into the US west coast averaged 110,000 b/d and 25,000 b/d, respectively, between 20 May and 20 August, down from 155,000 b/d and 135,000 b/d over the same stretch in 2023, according to Kpler.
The growth of the Vancouver market, which benefits from its proximity to California, has reduced tonne-miles, a proxy for tanker demand, into the US west coast. This has outpaced slightly lower crude demand, which fell in part due to Phillips 66 halting crude runs at its 115,000 b/d refinery in Rodeo, California, in February to produce renewable fuels, as well as weaker-than-expected road fuel demand this summer.
Tonne-miles for US west coast crude imports fell by 14pc to 106bn between 20 May and 20 August 2024 compared with the same period a year earlier, Vortexa data show, while overall crude imports declined just 8.6pc to 1.37mn b/d, according to Kpler.
PAL-ing around with VLCCs
Though much of Vancouver’s exports have been shipped to the US west coast, Canadian producers have found ready buyers in Asia-Pacific as well, where about 160,000 b/d of Vancouver exports went between 20 May and 20 August, compared with none a year prior, Kpler data show.Buyers and sellers have displayed a preference for using ship-to-ship transfers onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs) at the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL) off the coast of southern California, rather than sending Aframaxes directly to refineries in east Asia. Of the 30 Vancouver-origin Aframax cargoes that have landed in China, South Korea and India, 19 were transferred onto VLCCs at PAL, Kpler data show. Seven cargoes were sent directly to east Asia on time-chartered Aframaxes — the majority by Suncor — and just four were sent using spot tonnage, likely due to the expensive economics of trans-Pacific Aframax shipments.
The Vancouver-China Aframax rate between 1 May and 20 August averaged $5.90/bl, with a low of $4.94/bl from 19-20 August and a high of $6.41/bl from 1-10 May and again from 4-12 June, according to Argus data.
Over the same time, the cost to reverse lighter, or transfer, three 550,000 bl shipments of Cold Lake crude from Vancouver onto a VLCC at PAL averaged about $8.055mn lumpsum, or $4.92/bl, with a low of $4.35/bl from 8-13 August and a high of $5.45/bl on 22 May, according to Argus data. This includes $150,000 ship-to-ship transfer costs at PAL, 15 days of VLCC demurrage and three days of Aframax demurrage for each reverse lightering.
VLCC costs could change preferences
Though it may have been cheaper to load TMX crude on VLCCs at PAL since May, volatility in the VLCC market — which often falls to yearly lows in summer before climbing to seasonal highs in the winter — could entice traders to opt for direct Aframax shipments if VLCCs hit their expected peak in the winter.
VLCC costs for shipments from the US west coast to China are influenced by the VLCC markets in the Mideast Gulf and Brazil, where ships look for their next voyage after discharging on the US west coast.
For now, Vancouver-loading Aframax rates are under pressure from the reemergence of VLCCs in what had become an Aframax trade in Thailand, boosting Aframax supply in the Pacific and pulling the class’s rate to ship crude from Vancouver to the US west coast to its lowest level in more than three months on 19 August.
In mid-July, VLCCs resumed discharging via single point mooring (SPM) at Thailand's port of Map Ta Phut for the first time since January 2022, ship-tracking data from Vortexa show. Prior to the SPM's return to service, VLCCs could discharge cargoes only by lightering onto smaller Aframaxes, which would then unload at a different berth in the port.
This created demand for about eight Aframax lighterings each month, but with VLCCs in Thailand again able to discharge directly, that demand is effectively halted, putting downward pressure in the broader southeast Asia Aframax market.
Since July, two Aframaxes have left the southeast Asia market for Vancouver, according to ship tracking data from Kpler: the Eagle Brisbane, which previously was used in lightering operations at Map Ta Phut, and the Blue Sea, which recently hauled fuel oil from nearby Singapore to China.
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Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update
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Updates with changes throughout Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" as one of the first acts of his second term in office and has signed a series of executive orders designed to bring down energy costs, including pulling the US out of the Paris climate agreement. The executive orders on energy, trade and other issues will restore "common sense" in US policy, Trump said during his second inaugural address, moments after being sworn in at the US Capitol. The executive orders and emergency declaration are intended to expedite permitting of energy infrastructure, tackle inflation, roll back climate programs put in place under former president Joe Biden and pursue what Trump says is a policy to "drill, baby, drill". Trump signed his first set of executive orders during a rally tonight with supporters and plans to sign more orders later tonight at the White House. The first executive orders will implement an "immediate regulation freeze", put a temporary hold on hiring workers and rescind 78 of Biden's executive actions and memoranda. Trump also signed a directive to federal agencies to take steps to reduce the cost-of-living, along with a separate order that will withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord for a second time. "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally later in the day. "The United States will not sabotage their own industries while China pollutes with impunity." Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under Biden — and revoke an "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump also vowed to begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and reiterated his support for tariffs, which he sees as a way to raise government revenue and support domestic manufacturing. "Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump said. They are "going to bring our country's businesses back that left us." But it remains unclear if Trump will move ahead with his threatened 25pc tariff against Canada that oil industry officials have said could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. On foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that Panamanian president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . 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By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'
Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'
Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump, within minutes of being sworn in for a second term in office, pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" and sign executive orders to expand drilling, block electric vehicle regulations and end the climate policies of his predecessor. In his second inaugural address delivered inside the rotunda of the US Capitol, Trump vowed to put "America first" and make the US "greater, stronger and far more exceptional than ever before". Trump said he will sign a raft of executive orders to restore "common sense" in US policy, including a directive for his administration to "defeat" inflation by increasing drilling and rolling back climate-related policies. "The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency," Trump said. "We will drill, baby, drill." 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Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said. Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. US interior secretary nominee Doug Burgum, at a confirmation hearing last week, said emergency action was needed because of a looming "crisis" with the electric grid that he said could result in higher prices and slowing the growth of artificial intelligence data centers. Trump is expected to take action soon to restart licensing of US LNG export terminals and support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). 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Indiana governor Mike Braun (R) and other top Republicans watched the inauguration remotely. Former president Joe Biden today issued pardons to former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff retired Gen. Mark Milley, key medical adviser during the Covid-19 pandemic Anthony Fauci, leaders of the committee that investigated Trump's actions leading up to the 6 January 2020 attack on the US Capitol, and members of his own family. Biden said those he pardoned did nothing wrong but worried they could face "baseless and politically motivated investigations". By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase
Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase
Calgary, 17 January (Argus) — The operator behind Trans Mountain's 890,000 b/d pipeline system in western Canada is looking into increasing its capacity as export congestion looms, while threatened US tariffs may prompt the country to re-examine its broader pipeline strategy. "We have started to identify and investigate opportunities that could improve the throughput efficiency of the system and increase capacity of the pipeline — ideally in the next four to five years," Trans Mountain told Argus on Friday. Federally-owned Trans Mountain would not say how much of an increase it was contemplating, but any plans would be subject to thorough regulatory reviews and approval before proceeding. The system connects producers in oil-rich Alberta to the docks at Burnaby, British Columbia, and its capacity was roughly tripled when the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) was placed into service in May 2024. The increased system has been a popular outlet for shippers, both for selling to US West coast refiners, but also for producers looking to bypass the US altogether and target Asian countries. Trans Mountain is expected to be full by 2028, chief executive Mark Maki told a parliamentary committee in October , as are other lines which have operators like Enbridge also looking to up egress capacity. The laying of new pipe may not necessarily be a big part of these increases as both are looking at making their systems more efficient. TMX is expected to cost about C$34bn ($24bn) after enduring regulatory delays, political and environmental resistance, court orders, wildfires, floods, Covid-19 measures, and rising labor costs caused by competing pipelines since being proposed in 2013. Other proposed export pipelines like Enbridge's 525,000 b/d Northern Gateway and TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East did not get past the approval stage under a federal Liberal government. Alberta premier Danielle Smith on 16 January called on Canada to "immediately start construction on the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines" to decrease the country's reliance on US customers in the wake of threatened tariffs by president-elect Donald Trump. Prime minister Justin Trudeau and all Canadian premiers, except Smith, have not ruled out the use of Canada's energy — most of which comes from Alberta — in retaliation to US tariffs. Smith has been labeled by some as not being part of a unified front for Canada, but she questions where the "Team Canada" approach has been in the past, citing suffocating regulations for the energy industry and decades of transfer payments made to Quebec, Ontario and the Maritime provinces at the expense of Alberta taxpayers. There is precedent for Smith's concerns, referencing a clash between Alberta and prime minister Pierre Trudeau, Justin's father, in 1973 when a federal tax was imposed on Canadian oil exported to the US amid the Arab oil embargo. Conflict peaked again in the early 1980s when the Trudeau government introduced its National Energy Program, which included price controls on domestic oil. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF upgrades global growth outlook
IMF upgrades global growth outlook
Washington, 17 January (Argus) — The IMF is taking a slightly more upbeat view of the prospects for the global economy, revising upward its expectations for the US economy. But IMF officials are warning about the potential for higher inflation in the US if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his threats to impose broad tariffs on all US imports from Canada, Mexico and China. "Higher tariffs or immigration curbs will play out like negative supply shocks, reducing output and adding to price pressures," IMF head of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. In an update to its World Economic Outlook released today, the IMF projected the global economy will grow by what it called a "stable, albeit lackluster rate" of 3.3pc this year and again by 3.3pc in 2026. The IMF's new 2025 outlook is 0.1 percentage points higher than its 3.2pc forecast in its October report. The IMF expects the US economy, spurred by continued strength in domestic demand, to grow by 2.7pc this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from its forecast in October. China's economy is projected to grow by 4.6pc this year, up by 0.1 percentage point from the IMF's October forecast. The euro area is expected to grow by 1pc. Last year, the world economy grew by an estimated 3.2pc, compared with 3.3pc in 2023, the IMF said. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the Paris-based energy watchdog IEA, to model oil demand projections. Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2pc this year and 3.5pc in 2026, with pricing pressures easing in advanced economies more quickly than in emerging and developing economies. Gourinchas noted that while it is difficult to quantify the effects of the policy changes Trump has vowed to implement, "they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term" relative to the IMF's baseline. Looser fiscal policy or deregulation would stimulate demand and increase inflation, as spending and investment rise. "A combination of surging demand and shrinking supply would likely reignite US price pressures, though the effect on economic output in the near term would be ambiguous," Gourinchas said. IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva and other economists have warned in recent years about the rising tide of protectionist measures implemented by the advanced economies, including the US and the EU. A recent IMF forecast scenario that involves a trade war between the US, Europe and China would reduce the global and US GDP annual growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-30, with smaller effects in the eurozone and China. That scenario did not account for a possible trade war between the US and its immediate neighbors, which also has the potential to disrupt an integrated North American energy market. By David Ivanovich and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
