As the largest economy and the largest energy consumer in Europe, Germany is central to the energy and commodity markets we cover. Our German team, based in Hamburg, provide detailed, insightful local commentary on these specialist markets every day with a range of dedicated services. Argus’ global expertise supports and enhances the solutions we offer German market participants, while our unique insight into the region proves invaluable to those trading with the country.

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Comprehensive coverage of the energy and commodity markets

  • Complete coverage of the transportation and heating fuels markets for diesel, gasoline, and heating oil, including coverage of logistics trends and freight rates intraday German price indications and key import benchmark ARA fob barge prices, Argus diesel cif Hamburg and Argus Eurobob for E5 and E10 gasoline.
  • The only source of independent German GHG savings certificates price assessments, published in Argus O.M.R. and Argus Biofuels
  • The leading source of biofuels prices and market insight with benchmark biodiesel prices, HVO, including German HVO100, biomethane, ethanol and more
  • The only AdBlue price indexes and market coverage available for Germany and central Europe, used as benchmarks for Europe.
  • Key insight into natural gas for power including Germany VTP (THE) and the first independent biomethane price assessment bolstered by RGGOs assessments
  • The home of trusted LPG price benchmarks, including ANSI, cif ARA large cargoes and the global benchmark, AFEI
  • German specific regional small-scale LNG prices for retailers, including wholesale prices at the Gate terminal plus trucked freight rates allowing forecourt operators to have a competitive pricing basis for LNG at the pump.
  • The first assessed prices for green hydrogen are produced by our specialist teams based in Germany, the U.K. and Singapore
  • Argus prices, including inland prices and the Central Europe Index are relied on by the German construction industry and bitumen suppliers for visibility into their markets.
  • In-land freight costs for barge freight and LNG truck freight are assessed for seven points along the German Rhine River and one across the border in Switzerland

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News
13/02/25

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

London, 13 February (Argus) — The IEA said today that the Opec+ alliance's improving compliance with agreed crude production targets is "slowly chipping away" at its projected supply surplus this year. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the Paris-based agency again lowered its forecasted surplus for this year, this time by 270,000 b/d to 450,000 b/d. This is the agency's third consecutive downgrade since November, when it saw 2025 supply outstripping demand by 1.15mn b/d. These forecasts are subject to change. With data now "largely complete" for 2024, the agency's balances show supply matching and demand exactly at 102.9mn b/d. This is a long way off the 800,000 b/d supply surplus the IEA forecast for 2024 this time last year. Opec+ is implementing three sets of crude production cuts, and is scheduled to start unwinding one of these — totalling 2.2mn b/d — starting in April. A recent meeting of the group's key producers signalled no change to this plan . The IEA continues to assume all Opec+ cuts will remain in place this year. But the agency said that should production return as planned, this would add 430,000 b/d to its 2025 supply forecast. Aside from Opec+, there are other key supply uncertainties this year. These range from new US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil exports to US tariffs on some of its key trading partners. "It is still too early to tell how trade flows will respond to new US tariffs or the prospect thereof, and what the impact of the escalation of sanctions on Iran and Russia may be in the longer run," the IEA said. As thing stand, the IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.56mn b/d this year to 104.45mn b/d, compared with growth of 1.76mn b/d projected in its January report. This slower growth was largely driven by Opec+, which the agency now sees supplying 170,000 b/d less than previously thought this year. It also noted a 950,000 b/d fall in global oil supply in January, "with extreme cold weather hitting North American supply, compounding large declines in Nigerian and Libyan production." On demand, the agency upgraded its growth forecast this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d. It sees oil demand at 104mn b/d in 2025, driven by "a minor pickup in GDP growth and lower oil prices as per the current forward curve." The IEA said global observed oil stocks fell by 17.1mn bl in December. Crude stocks fell by 63.5mn bl and products stocks rose by 46.4mn bl. It said preliminary data show global stocks falling by 49.3mn bl in January, led by large draw in China. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India’s Fact issues tender to buy phosacid


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

India’s Fact issues tender to buy phosacid

London, 12 February (Argus) — Indian fertilizer importer and producer Fact has issued a tender to buy up to 12,000t of phosphoric acid, closing on 18 February. Fact is seeking phosphoric acid containing 46-53pc P2O5 for laycan during 20 March-10 April and shipment to Kochi on India's southwest coast. Offers are to be valid for seven days after opening and will include 30 days' credit. Offers will be given as a premium or discount to the first-quarter phosphoric acid contract price of $1,055/t P2O5 cfr India. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Tesla sales slump on ageing line up, competition


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Tesla sales slump on ageing line up, competition

London, 12 February (Argus) — US firm Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) sales have continued to fall this year — but as a result of structural factors, such as increased competition, duties and the arrival of Chinese carmakers in the market, and not because of chief executive Elon Musk's public profile, market participants have told Argus . Tesla's European sales fell by 11pc in 2024, having risen by 56pc in 2023 (see graph) . In January 2025, Tesla's sales fell by 63pc on the year in France, 59.5pc in Germany, 44.3pc in Sweden, and 37.9pc in Norway. The smaller 7.8pc fall in the non-EU UK could be explained by the different tariff regime. Some Tesla models sold in Europe are manufactured in Shanghai, and the UK has decided not to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, while the EU imposed a 7.8pc duty on Tesla's Chinese-made EVs in October. Demand for Teslas in the UK, France, Germany and US began to decline in April last year, according to Ben Marks, founder of Electrify Research. Marks also pointed to "notable drops in July and October, by which time Tesla had fallen from the first to fourth-placed brand — trailing Audi, BMW and VW". According to a survey conducted last month by car testers Electrifying.com, of 455 non-EV drivers, 56pc would be happy to buy Chinese, while 59pc have been put off buying a Tesla by the public profile of chief executive Elon Musk, although some market participants pointed to other problems. "Tesla's problems are likely not to do with British motorists' perceptions of Elon Musk, and more to do with the fact that Tesla haven't released a new car since the Model Y, while its competitors have been playing catch-up," independent transport research organisation New AutoMotive's chief executive, Ben Nelmes, said. And with Chinese EV makers now in Europe, and over 130 mainstream EV models available in the UK, "competition has never been fiercer", Electrifying.com chief executive Ginny Buckley told Argus . "[Tesla's] dominance is no longer guaranteed." Meanwhile, Slovakian battery maker InoBat's vice-chair, Andy Palmer, said Tesla "needs to think long and hard about its positioning and product offers if it wants to stop bleeding market share". Tesla models also rely on production of a battery chemistry that is increasingly concentrated in China (see graph) . Standard-range versions of Tesla's best-selling Model 3 and Model Y both use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, rather than premium nickel-cobalt-manganese-based (NCM) batteries. And while input costs of LFP-based EVs have edged down to a discount to NCM-based EVs (see graphs) , domestic LFP production has enabled Chinese carmakers such as BYD to sell their models at prices that are increasingly competitive with Tesla . Tesla better placed to cope than legacy carmakers Tesla's Model Y is still comfortably the best-selling EV model, according to research firm Jato Dynamics. "One of the things with car sales, particularly retail sales — it's not logical, otherwise everyone would drive a Toyota Corolla. People drive the new shiny things. Tesla used to be the shiny thing with the Model Y, but not so much now," the founder of ratings service The Car Expert, Stuart Masson, told Argus . Until recently, Tesla "showed you don't have to make design changes for the sake of it" according to Masson, going against prevailing wisdom. Tesla's cars often still topped ratings for safety, battery efficiency and technology after 3-4 years on the road. Tesla is "better placed to cope" with Chinese competition because it "doesn't have a lot of legacy infrastructure", Masson added. The firm has never had dealers, as conventional carmakers have, or big showrooms that require steady monthly sales. Instead, it operates its own showrooms and interacts with customers directly over the internet, cutting out the middleman used by established dealer networks. Volkswagen, by contrast, "can't sack anyone in Germany because of the unions and local government that have seats on the board; they veto any attempts", Masson said. "It's haemorrhaging money, and it knows full well that most expensive factories are in Germany, but it can't get rid of them." Volkswagen Group's operating profit dropped by 42pc on the year to €2.9bn in the third quarter of 2024 and its operating margin was just 3.6pc. Tesla also makes a much bigger profit from EVs than any western car company, so it can better afford to reduce prices. The firm is also now much more than just a carmaker, Masson added, having launched an energy storage gigafactory in Shanghai this week. "From cars to battery storage, superchargers, robo-taxis and robo-vans, they've launched several concepts that have never gone to production, but they tend to find their feet in every market," Masson said. "I think it will still be okay, but we're not going to see continued growth of 100pc per year … I think there are a lot of car companies that are in far more trouble." By Chris Welch Tesla annual BEV sales in Europe China monthly battery production GWh NCM EV input material price model $ LFP EV input material price model $ Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Houston, 12 February (Argus) — US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December. The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation. The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month. Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December. Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction. Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc. CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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