Triple climate action to avoid 2°C of warming: UN

Countries must increase their emissions reduction efforts threefold by 2030, or it will be "extremely unlikely" the world can avoid more than 2°C of warming by the end of the century, the UN environment agency said today.

Countries pledged under the UN's Paris climate agreement to limit global warming to a maximum of 2˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, and pursue efforts to curb the increase to 1.5°C.

Each of the nearly 200 states signed up to the Paris agreement set a national target to cut emissions, as a contribution towards the overall goals. But the combined efforts of these pledges would still result in global warming of about 3°C by 2100.

Nations would need to triple their current climate ambitions to meet the 2°C goal, and increase their ambition fivefold to be on track for the more ambitious 1.5°C target, the UN environment agency said today in its annual analysis of global climate action.

Countries must act before 2030 to close this "emissions gap" — the gulf between the CO2 cuts that would be delivered by current pledges, and the cuts required to meet the Paris temperature goals.

"If the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is extremely unlikely that the 2°C temperature goal can still be reached," the UN said.

While it is still technically possible to limit warming to 1.5°C, the UN's concerns about the current level of action are "amplified" this year compared with in previous years, it said.

Global CO2 emissions increased in 2017, after three years of stagnation. Total CO2 output climbed to an historic high of 53.5Gt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) last year, driven by higher GDP growth.

And under current policies, emissions are likely to keep climbing. Global CO2 output is on track to hit 59Gt CO2e in 2030, a 10pc increase from 2017 levels, the UN said.

Even if countries fully implement their Paris agreement pledges, global emissions would flat line to 2030.

Both of these scenarios fall short of the emissions cuts needed to keep the world on track to meet the Paris temperature goals. Global emissions must be 25pc and 55pc lower in 2030 than in 2017, to be on track to limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C, respectively, the UN said.

To deliver deeper emissions cuts, countries must increase the ambition of their Paris agreement climate pledges by 2020, the UN said.

World leaders will convene for the UN's annual climate summit (Cop 24) in Katowice, Poland, next month. They will face pressure to signal they will increase their climate pledges, especially in light of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's landmark report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5˚C, released last month.

Policies including carbon pricing will also be key to delivering further CO2 reductions, the UN said. But prices in existing carbon markets are too low and inconsistent to trigger substantial emissions reductions, it said.

The UK's high-level commission on carbon prices has recommended a CO2 price of $40-80/t CO2e by 2020 to be consistent with the Paris climate goals. Roughly half of emissions covered by carbon pricing initiatives are priced at less than $10/t CO2e, according to the World Bank report .

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