Venezuela´s opposition seeks political reset

Venezuela´s opposition leader Juan Guaido today pledged to escalate a campaign to force President Nicolas Maduro to step down.

Speaking at an opposition rally in eastern Caracas on Venezuela´s Independence Day, Guaido said he would accept "full responsibility" for the unspecified measures but vowed "no more debates with the Maduro dictatorship."

Guaido, who heads the opposition-controlled National Assembly, is recognized by the US and some 50 other countries as Venezuela´s interim president. But his anti-government movement, which kicked off with a 23 January oath of office before throngs of supporters on the streets of the capital, has lost momentum, especially since a 30 April failed military uprising.

Guaido's moderately tougher remarks today appeared to be aimed at rekindling popular support for his campaign to end the Maduro "usurpation", establish a transition government and convene new elections.

Addressing supporters near the headquarters of the defense ministry's feared military counterintelligence agency (DGCIM) today, Guaido signaled an unwillingness to engage in further talks with the government for now.

The two sides met for the first time in Oslo in early May without reaching any conclusions.

Guaido a week ago unilaterally suspended a second meeting that was scheduled to start this week in Barbados after navy captain Rafael Acosta Arevalo was allegedly beaten to death at DGCIM headquarters.

Today´s speech came two days after the UN issued a scathing report on human rights in Venezuela.

A senior presidential palace official, who spoke privately to Argus , described Guaido's remarks today as a "drowning man's last efforts to stay afloat on dry land. Guaido knows he is losing the people's support and he is desperate, but all he can do make empty promises and toothless threats."

There is "absolutely no scenario under which President Maduro, Venezuela's only legitimately elected president, would voluntarily resign or countenance any internal or external pressures to force him from the presidency," the official added.

Another government official, in the oil ministry, described the current situation as a "political deadlock".

"Maduro is unpopular and incapable of reviving the economy, but he is still supported by the military, militia and people's collectives," the official said, referring to armed pro-government gangs. Guaido "is losing the streets, doesn't have any overt military support."

Many Guaido supporters are urging him to invoke Article 187 of the Venezuelan constitution that would authorize foreign military intervention. But the US has ruled out a military intervention to remove Maduro.

"Everything that is internationally acceptable has been done," a US government source familiar with US military deliberations on Venezuela has told Argus . "We just have to wait."

A defense ministry official said invoking 187 could lead to Guaido´s immediate arrest on treason charges. "It is also possible the US would ignore his plea to intervene, exposing Guaido's international support as a sham," the official added.

Neither side is willing to compromise, but as long as Maduro remains president he is arguably winning regardless of his unpopularity and the economy's collapse, the palace official said.

Venezuela's political turmoil, coupled with the crippling effects of US financial and oil sanctions, were responsible for an almost 40pc GDP contraction during the first six months of 2019, according to unofficial data compiled by National Assembly economists.

If the legislature's estimates are accurate, Venezuela's GDP has shrunk over 63pc since Maduro was elected president in April 2013.

Venezuela´s Central Bank only issues piecemeal economic data.

Venezuela's crude production has tumbled from about 2.5mn b/d as of 2013 to an estimated 750,000 b/d in June, according to oil ministry and state-owned PdV internal data and estimates.

Outside of Venezuela, Peru plans to convene an international meeting on 6 August to address the ongoing crisis in Venezuela.

Foreign affairs Minister Nestor Popolizio said on 3 July that the invitation would be extended to countries on both sides of the conflict, including Maduro supporters China, Cuba and Russia, and opposition supporters that include the US and the Lima Group of more than 10 countries in the region -- including Peru -- advocating for peaceful change in Venezuela.

Popolizio said neither representatives of Maduro's administration nor the opposition, led by Guaido, would be invited to avoid polarizing the meeting.

He said the goal was the "broadest possible meeting on Venezuela."

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