<article><p class="lead">Chinese oil demand could peak around 2030 as demand in the transportation sector slows, although petrochemical use may help pick up some of the slack, according to a research report by China's state-owned oil firm CNPC. </p><p>Oil demand may peak at 16.4mn b/d (705mn t) around 2030 and fall to 13.7mn b/d by 2050 along with slower GDP growth, CNPC's research arm ETRI said in its <i>Energy Outlook 2050</i> report published this month. </p><p>Its latest forecast implies only marginal growth over the next 11 years. China's apparent oil demand — domestic crude output plus net oil imports — averaged 13.8mn b/d during January-July this year, up by 5pc or 630,000 b/d from 13.2mn b/d a year earlier. </p><p>The institute's latest forecast is despite its revision of its models for tabulation this year from last year to focus more on oil use in petrochemical production, while taking into consideration technological developments in the renewable and electric vehicle (EV) sectors. Its forecast is also based on assumptions for a 6.7pc/yr GDP growth rate from now until 2020, 5pc/yr from 2021-35 and 3.5pc/yr from 2036-50. </p><p>Oil products or transport fuel demand growth, led by gasoline and jet-kerosine, could peak around 2030, growing at an average 2.4pc/yr rate between now and then but fall to 0.6pc/yr between 2030-50. </p><p>Chinese apparent gasoline demand — production plus net imports — averaged 3pc higher from a year earlier during January-July at 2.9mn b/d,. </p><p>CNPC's Petrochemical Research Institute (PRI) had previously made a similar forecast that <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1893755">transport fuel demand could peak</a> between 2025 and 2030. While diesel has peaked, the PRI forecast gasoline demand to continue to grow to 3.94mn b/d by 2025 from 2.92mn b/d last year and jet fuel demand to continue to grow strongly until 2030 at 9pc/yr.</p><p>ETRI also expects gasoline demand growth to peak by 2025 but it expects more growth in jet-fuel demand that should continue to grow before 2040. Petrochemical demand for oil could continue to grow before 2035. </p><p>The almost doubling of China's car population, estimated at 350 cars for every 1,000 people by 2050 from around 170:1,000 last year will help to boost oil demand. But oil will account for a smaller share as a fuel source in the transportation sector, forming about a 75pc share by 2035 and 61pc by 2050 compared with 88pc last year, ETRI said. The share of gas will rise to 10pc by 2035 and 13pc by 2050 from 7pc in 2018. Electricity will account for 10pc by 2035 and 18pc by 2050 from 4pc last year. </p><p>EV sales could reach about the same level as gasoline-fuelled vehicle sales by 2040-45, contributing to the rise of electricity use in the transportation sector, ETRI said. New energy vehicles will account for 21.5pc and 44.2pc share of China's car population by 2035 and 2050 respectively from less than 2pc currently. </p><p>ETRI also forecast growing gas import dependency to maintain at around 49-51pc amid the Chinese government's efforts to reduce pollution. It expects a steady increase in gas demand to 610bn m³ by 2035 and 690bn m³ by 2050 with gas production growing to 300bn m³ by 2035 and 350bn m³ by 2050. Chinese apparent gas demand during January-July was up by 12pc from a year earlier to 175bn m³. </p></article>
