<article><p class="lead">Global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to grow in 2020, driven by the momentum provided by supportive government policies and technological advances, despite the negative impact of Covid-19 on the wider automotive market.</p><p>EV sales are expected to match or slightly exceed figures from last year and should be close to the 2.3mn sold in 2019 despite an expected 15pc drop in sales for the wider automotive market, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). This would amount to around 3pc of total global vehicle sales. </p><p>The report forecasts that EV sales should account for around 7pc of the total global vehicle fleet by 2030 if existing policies remain the same in most countries. This would mean sales reaching 14mn units in 2025 and 25mn by 2030. In this scenario, most governments would not try to expand on climate policies already either announced or in place. </p><p>In a more positive scenario that envisages progressive sustainability policies, the IEA predicts global EV sales could reach 80mn units by 2025 and 245mn by 2030.</p><p>This scenario would require global governments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement.</p><p>Global EV sales rose consistently over the past decade, by at least 30pc every year apart from 2019, when sales grew by 6pc. The slowdown was attributable to changes in China and an overall slowdown in the car market. </p><p>Since the outbreak of Covid-19, several countries have increased or extended incentives for EVs. China extended its purchase subsidies for EVs until <a href="https://metals.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2092433">2022</a>. They were originally planned to end this year.</p><p>Italy has made additional funds available for its EV purchase incentives in 2021 and 2022, as well as a €1,500 ($1,690) car scrappage scheme. In France, the government announced strengthened EV subsidies and scrappage schemes between June and December 2020. </p><p>To facilitate the growth of the industry, the IEA says the number of public charging stations must expand from 870,000 today to around 11mn by 2030. This is on top of an estimated 135mn private charging stations in homes or businesses by the end of this decade. </p><p>The market for EVs will increase demand for a number of metals. Demand for battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt will increase sharply. Demand is also expected to increase for other metals used in drive trains such as rare earths and metals used in charging stations, such as copper and steel. </p><p><i>Argus</i> has assessed lithium carbonate prices at $6.50-8.50/kg cif China, historically low levels as extra supply meets stable demand from the EV market. That price should increase across the decade as the supply/demand dynamic shifts.</p><p class="bylines">By Thomas Kavanagh</p></article>
