<article><p class="lead">US crude production will not revisit its nearly 13mn b/d record again, and will at best reach 11.5mn b/d on a sustained level over the next 5-10 years, said Parsley Energy chief executive Matt Gallagher.</p><p>The cautious return of energy demand after this year's Covid-19-related crash, combined with the high decline rates for wells drilled in shale formations, makes it unlikely the industry can return to the 13mn b/d monthly record set in November, Gallagher said today at the Energy Intelligence Forum.</p><p>Production may be able to reach as much as 12.5mn b/d, but not on a sustained basis, he said. US crude production was <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2150498">10.5mn b/d last week</a>, according to Energy Information Administration data released today, and has dipped as low as 9.7mn b/d on a weekly basis this year.</p><p>Gallagher's comments echo those of Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub, who said this week the <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2150232">US production peak has passed</a>.</p><p>"It will be just too difficult to replace the 2mn b/d that we've lost and grow beyond that," Hollub said.</p><p>Chevron chief executive <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2149830">Mike Wirth was more circumspect</a> about a return to record US oil production when asked this week. At the very least he did not expect a return to the prior levels anytime soon, he said, given a growing commitment to profits over production among US oil producers.</p><p>Shale well production levels decline quickly, by as much as 60-75pc in the first year, Gallagher said, making it capital intensive for producers to maintain overall output levels. The US shale industry spent up to $1 trillion over the past five years reaching record production levels, but investors have lost enthusiasm for funding such output without seeing much profit.</p><p class="bylines">By Tom Fowler</p></article>
