<article><p class="lead">Oil exporting countries in the Middle East and north Africa (Mena) region will see a $224bn shortfall in revenue this year, the IMF said today, in large part because of the effects of Covid-19.</p><p>"2020 was a year like no other. Nobody was expecting the severity of the first and second shocks that have deeply affected the economy of the world, and economies of the region," IMF Middle East and Central Asia department director Jihad Azour said today.</p><p>For Mena oil exporters, the IMF now projects combined gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 6.6pc this year, reflecting the pandemic-induced collapse in global oil demand, and the co-ordinated production cuts that Opec and its partners instituted in May.</p><p>The IMF includes in its definition of Mena oil exporting countries Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Yemen.</p><p>"This crisis was a double whammy crisis for oil exporting countries, in particular for the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC)," Azour said. "In addition to the pandemic, and the needed measures to protect lives and the populations… the decline in oil demand globally and drop in oil prices deeply affected the economies of the oil exporting countries."</p><p>The IMF said combined growth in these 11 countries will rebound to 3.4pc in 2021. For the six GCC countries it sees GDP contracting by 6pc this year and rebounding by 2.3pc next year, although it said that these forecasts are subject to change given lingering uncertainties over the global economic recovery.</p><p>In its latest monthly report, Opec trimmed its full-year demand growth forecast for next year by 80,000 b/d to 6.54mn b/d, and pointed to a fragile outlook as the number of Covid-19 cases rise globally and some government again impose restrictions on movement and economic activities.</p><p>According to the IMF, its forecast contraction for Mena oil exporters this year is primarily down to its oil price forecast of between $42/bl and $45/bl in 2020, which it says has the potential to increase gradually from the start of 2021. </p><p>The pandemic, which has killed more than 1.1mn people worldwide, may "inflict deeper and more persistent economic scarring than previous recessions in the region, given the severe vulnerabilities entering the crisis and its unprecedented nature," " Azour said.</p><p class="bylines"><i>By Nader Itayim</i></p></article>
