<article><p class="lead">The year 2020 is ending much as it started, with Washington warning it will hold Tehran responsible for continuing rocket attacks against the US embassy in Baghdad.</p><p>The context for the latest escalation is different from the <a href="http://direct.argusmedia.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/2045167">one in January</a> as President Donald Trump's administration is looking for ways to ensure its "maximum pressure" strategy against Iran outlives the end of his presidency in 27 days. President-elect Joe Biden has vowed to resume diplomatic negotiations with Tehran, opening the prospect of an eventual lifting of US sanctions against Iran and the return of Iranian crude to the markets.</p><p>The US Central Command, which oversees US military forces in the Middle East, said today that it attributed a 20 December rocket attack against the US embassy in Baghdad's Green Zone to "an Iranian-backed rogue militia group."</p><p>The US "will hold Iran accountable for the deaths of any Americans that result from the work of these Iranian-backed rogue militia groups," Central Command said, adding that it believes the unnamed groups are Iran-backed because "Iran provides both material support and direction." The Pentagon for the first time in years publicly released pictures of a US nuclear-powered submarine transiting the Strait of Hormuz. </p><p>Trump today weighed in via Twitter as well, posting a picture of what he said were three Iranian-made rockets that failed to launch in the US embassy's direction. "Some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over," Trump said.</p><p>Tehran has rejected the US accusations and said "the US military presence is the source of instability in our region."</p><p>Tensions between the US and Iran moderated after the two countries <a href="http://direct.argusmedia.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/2046952">targeted</a> each other's forces in Iraq at the start of 2020. The US attributed the reduction in tensions to having achieved deterrence against Tehran following the 3 January killing of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani near the Baghdad airport. But attacks against the US embassy in Baghdad continued throughout the year, even though Iranian and US military commanders have avoided direct confrontation in the Mideast Gulf and Iraq. </p><p>Trump's defeat in last month's US presidential election launched a last-minute effort by his administration to persuade US partners in the Middle East to stand firm in opposition to Biden's proposed renewed engagement with Tehran, and to pursue closer military co-operation against Iran. </p><p>But Iran clearly has its eye on resumption of dialog with the US once Biden takes office, and the promise of sanctions relief that it brings. Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, says the country plans to hike crude and condensate output to 4.5mn b/d in the next Iranian year that begins on 21 March, and to boost exports to 2.3mn b/d. Negotiations are not expected to be smooth: Tehran says it wants the US to lift oil sanctions before Iran can resume compliance with the nuclear deal. The Biden team wants the sequence in reverse, promising sanctions relief only after UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA is satisfied that Iran is complying with the nuclear deal.</p><p>The possibility that the outgoing US administration may provoke a war with Iran has worried enough US lawmakers for them to include a prohibition on starting military hostilities against Iran as part of the massive government spending and stimulus legislation that Congress approved on 21 December.</p><p>Trump may have inadvertently contributed to further anti-US sentiment in Iraq by his decision yesterday to issue a full pardon to four US military contractors convicted by US courts for killing Iraqi civilians in 2007.</p><p class="bylines">By Haik Gugarats</p></article>
